Budget Footnotes  
A NEWSLETTER OF THE OHIO LEGISLATIVE SERVICE COMMISSION  
FEBRUARY 2016  
VOLUME 39, NUMBER 6  
STATUS OF THE GRF  
STATUS OF THE GRF  
Highlights...................................1  
Revenues ..................................2  
Expenditures............................12  
HIGHLIGHTS  
Ross Miller, Chief Economist, 614-644-7768  
ISSUE UPDATES  
The Office of Budget and Management revised revenue  
estimates to reflect tax changes made in legislation enacted  
during the fall. The net effect of the revisions was to reduce  
expected FY 2016 GRF revenue by $69.9 million. GRF tax College Credit Plus Teacher  
revenue for the month of January, and for FY 2016 through  
Krabbe Disease Screening  
for Newborns.......................21  
Competency-Based Education  
Pilot Program Grants ...........21  
Credential Grants .................22  
Economic Development Award  
Compliance Report...............23  
Appalachian Behavioral  
January, was below the revised estimate.  
A pattern of weak income tax revenue in Ohio, combined  
with slower economic growth nationally, may raise  
questions about whether GRF revenue will fall short of  
forecast. However, economic forecaster Global Insight's  
latest, January 2016, forecast for Ohio does not appear to be  
substantially different than the company's May 2015  
economic forecast, which was used by LSC economists to  
forecast GRF revenues for the current biennium. The  
Tracking the Economy section of this report takes a closer  
look at how Global Insight's economic forecast changed  
between May and January.  
Healthcare............................24  
Distributions of Timber Sale  
Proceeds..............................24  
Transportation Issue Task  
Force Report ........................25  
Rural Fire Department  
Grants ..................................26  
TRACKING THE ECONOMY  
The National Economy ............29  
The Ohio Economy..................31  
Through January 2016, GRF sources totaled $20.56 billion:  
Revenue from the personal income tax was  
$116.6 million below the revised estimate;  
Sales and use tax receipts were $78.3 million above  
estimate.  
Legislative Service Commission  
7
7 South High Street, 9th Floor  
Columbus, Ohio 43215  
Through January 2016, GRF uses totaled $21.68 billion:  
Program expenditures were $542.7 million below  
estimate, due mainly to Medicaid ($388.4 million)  
and Health and Human Services ($82.2 million).  
Telephone: 614-466-3615  
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE: WWW.LSC.OHIO.GOV  
CLICK ON 'PUBLICATIONS/BUDGET FOOTNOTES'  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 1: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of January 2016  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on February 1, 2016)  
STATE SOURCES  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
TAX REVENUE  
Auto Sales  
$96,131  
$91,500  
$4,631  
5.1%  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use Taxes  
$864,441  
$861,100  
$3,341  
0.4%  
$960,571  
$952,600  
$7,971  
0.8%  
Personal Income  
$923,559  
$17,405  
$43,672  
-$322  
$960,600  
$0  
-$37,041  
$17,405  
-$1,878  
-$722  
-$2,173  
-$498  
-$4,324  
$0  
-3.9%  
---  
Corporate Franchise  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
$45,550  
$400  
-4.1%  
-180.4%  
-7.5%  
-26.2%  
-8.9%  
---  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Natural Gas Consumption (MCF)  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Business and Property  
Cigarette  
$26,927  
$1,402  
$44,376  
$0  
$29,100  
$1,900  
$48,700  
$0  
$255  
$200  
$55  
27.4%  
100.0%  
---  
$0  
-$100  
$0  
$100  
$0  
$0  
$71,059  
$3,011  
$4,754  
$95  
$71,700  
$3,900  
$4,500  
$0  
-$641  
-$889  
$254  
-0.9%  
-22.8%  
5.6%  
---  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Estate  
$95  
Total Tax Revenue  
$2,096,764  
$2,119,050  
-$22,286  
-1.1%  
NONTAX REVENUE  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$8,668  
$2,995  
$4,742  
$16,405  
$5,550  
$2,556  
$1,365  
$9,471  
$3,118  
$439  
56.2%  
17.2%  
247.4%  
73.2%  
$3,377  
$6,934  
Total Nontax Revenue  
TRANSFERS  
Budget Stabilization  
Other Transfers In  
Total Transfers In  
$0  
$7,172  
$7,172  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$7,172  
$7,172  
---  
---  
---  
TOTAL STATE SOURCES  
Federal Grants  
$2,120,340  
$908,607  
$2,128,521  
$1,025,292  
$3,153,813  
-$8,181  
-$116,685  
-$124,865  
-0.4%  
-11.4%  
-4.0%  
TOTAL GRF SOURCES  
$3,028,948  
*Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2015, including revisions in February 2016.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
2
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 2: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2016 as of January 31, 2016  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on February 1, 2016)  
Percent  
Change  
STATE SOURCES  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
FY 2015  
TAX REVENUE  
Auto Sales  
$772,102  
$742,000  
$30,102  
4.1%  
$747,807  
3.2%  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
$5,422,968  
$5,374,800  
$48,168  
0.9%  
$5,161,596  
5.1%  
Total Sales and Use Taxes  
$6,195,069  
$6,116,800  
$78,269  
1.3%  
$5,909,403  
4.8%  
Personal Income  
$5,126,037  
$30,475  
$35,312  
$51,297  
$198,544  
$18,566  
$657,132  
$3,362  
$5,242,600  
$0  
-$116,563  
$30,475  
$3,162  
$397  
-2.2%  
---  
$5,150,440  
-$27,365  
$22,131  
$36,838  
$170,457  
$20,461  
$454,329  
$1,944  
-0.5%  
211.4%  
59.6%  
39.3%  
16.5%  
-9.3%  
44.6%  
73.0%  
-5.0%  
-95.3%  
111.0%  
25.8%  
-3.9%  
4.0%  
Corporate Franchise  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
$32,150  
$50,900  
$199,100  
$19,000  
$681,500  
$3,000  
9.8%  
0.8%  
-0.3%  
-2.3%  
-3.6%  
12.1%  
-6.4%  
-92.7%  
---  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Natural Gas Consumption (MCF)  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Business and Property  
Cigarette  
-$556  
-$434  
-$24,368  
$362  
$146,166  
$344  
$156,100  
$4,700  
-$9,934  
-$4,356  
$42  
$153,819  
$7,362  
$42  
$0  
$20  
$539,150  
$31,986  
$27,161  
$918  
$517,700  
$32,000  
$26,500  
$0  
$21,450  
-$14  
4.1%  
0.0%  
2.5%  
---  
$428,680  
$33,294  
$26,112  
$2,356  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
$661  
Estate  
$918  
-61.1%  
5.4%  
Total Tax Revenue  
$13,061,561  
$13,082,050  
-$20,489  
-0.2%  
$12,390,281  
NONTAX REVENUE  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$16,600  
$12,832  
$42,841  
$72,273  
$11,000  
$17,195  
$34,733  
$62,928  
$5,600  
-$4,363  
$8,108  
$9,345  
50.9%  
-25.4%  
23.3%  
14.9%  
$11,411  
$11,942  
$22,616  
$45,970  
45.5%  
7.4%  
89.4%  
57.2%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
TRANSFERS  
Budget Stabilization  
Other Transfers In  
Total Transfers In  
$0  
$189,860  
$189,860  
$0  
$177,300  
$177,300  
$0  
$12,560  
$12,560  
---  
7.1%  
7.1%  
$0  
$23,700  
$23,700  
---  
701.1%  
701.1%  
TOTAL STATE SOURCES  
Federal Grants  
$13,323,694  
$7,231,395  
$20,555,089  
$13,322,278  
$7,454,788  
$20,777,066  
$1,416  
-$223,393  
-$221,977  
0.0%  
-3.0%  
-1.1%  
$12,459,951  
$5,649,435  
$18,109,385  
6.9%  
28.0%  
13.5%  
TOTAL GRF SOURCES  
*Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2015, including revisions in February 2016.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
February 2016  
3
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
REVENUES  
Thomas Kilbane, Economist, 614-728-3218  
Overview  
GRF sources1 received in FY 2016 through January were  
222.0 million (1.1%) below the estimate released by the Office of Budget  
$
Total state  
sources were  
only  
and Management (OBM) in September 2015 (and subsequently revised  
2
for new legislation). The largest factor in the shortfall from estimates has  
been smaller than expected federal grants, primarily related to the level  
3
of spending in the Medicaid program. (See the Expenditures section of  
$
1.4 million  
this publication.) Total state sources (excluding federal grants) were  
above estimate  
through  
$
1.4 million (0.0%) above estimate through January. This includes tax  
revenue, which was $20.5 million (0.2%) below estimate, nontax revenue  
such as licenses and fees, and investment earnings, which was  
January.  
$
$
9.3 million above estimate, and other transfers into the GRF, which were  
12.6 million above estimate. Tables 1 and 2 above, show GRF sources for  
January and for FY 2016 through January, respectively.  
For the month of January, GRF sources received were  
$
124.9 million (4.0%) below estimate. The primary reason for the  
difference, similarly to the fiscal year through January, was a large  
shortfall in federal grants, which were $116.7 million below estimate.  
State sources were only $8.2 million (0.4%) below estimate during the  
month. Among state sources, tax revenue was $22.3 million (1.1%) below  
estimate, nontax revenue was $6.9 million above estimate, and transfers  
in were $7.2 million even though none had been expected according to  
the OBM estimates. Total GRF receipts during the month were  
Tax revenue  
was  
$
20.5 million  
below estimate $3.0 billion.  
through  
January.  
Two key FY 2016 tax revenue trends continued in January when  
sales and use tax revenues were higher than estimates ($8.0 million) and  
personal income tax revenues were lower than estimates ($37.0 million).  
For personal income tax, it was the second largest monthly shortfall so  
far this fiscal year. Adding to the overall tax revenue shortfall in the  
1 GRF sources consist of state-source receipts, which include tax revenue,  
nontax revenue, transfers in, and federal grants, which are typically federal  
reimbursements for Medicaid and other programs.  
2 The new legislation was S.B. 208 and H.B. 340 of the 131st General  
Assembly. Details are provided at the bottom of page 5.  
3 GRF FY 2016 Medicaid expenditures were $388.4 million below estimate  
through January 2016, including $162.0 million below estimate in January.  
Budget Footnotes  
4
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
month was the commercial activity tax (CAT), receipts of which were  
4.3 million below estimate. Helping to pare the January tax deficit were  
$
corporate franchise tax (CFT) receipts of $17.4 million, none of which were  
budgeted for. The CFT was eliminated in 2013 and OBM did not estimate  
any CFT receipts in FY 2016. However, adjustments to tax filings from  
previous years can result in additional receipts or refunds attributed to the  
tax.  
For FY 2016 through January, the CFT payments have amounted to  
a net addition of $30.5 million to tax revenue, which along with higher  
than estimated revenues from the sales and use tax ($78.3 million) and  
cigarette tax ($21.5 million), have nearly made up the shortfall from  
personal income tax ($116.6 million) and the CAT ($24.4 million). The  
chart below shows the cumulative variances against estimates for tax  
revenue, federal grants, and total GRF sources through each month of the  
fiscal year. As noted previously, overall tax revenue estimates were just  
0
.2% ($20.5 million) higher than actual receipts through January.  
Chart 1: Cumulative Variances of GRF Sources in FY 2016  
(
Variance from Estimates, in millions)  
$
$
$
$
$
$
600  
500  
400  
300  
200  
100  
$
0
Jul-15  
Aug-15 Sep-15  
Oct-15  
Nov-15 Dec-15  
Jan-16  
-$100  
-$200  
-$300  
-$400  
Combined  
projected  
FY 2016 GRF  
revenue effect  
of S.B. 208 and  
Federal Grants  
Tax Revenue  
Total GRF Sources  
January was the first month that OBM estimates of revenue  
incorporated revisions based on the enactments of S.B. 208 and H.B. 340,  
both of the 131st General Assembly. S.B. 208 enhanced the small business H.B. 340, is a  
income deduction under the income tax for tax year 2015, resulting in  
lower estimated personal income tax revenues in January through June of  
FY 2016; the estimate reductions amounted to $76.1 million for the full  
loss of  
$
69.9 million.  
4
fiscal year, including $3.2 million in January. H.B. 340 resulted in lower  
estimated revenues from the CAT by $1.5 million, but $6.3 million in  
4 Most of the lower revenue is expected to come in the form of additional  
refunds issued.  
February 2016  
5
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
higher estimated revenues from the financial institutions tax (FIT)  
5
through the remainder of the fiscal year.  
On January 31, the FIT had its first collection date of the fiscal  
year. Receipts from the tax during the month totaled $43.7 million, which  
was $1.9 million (4.1%) below estimate. For FY 2016 through January, the  
FIT is $3.2 million (9.8%) above estimate.  
Compared to the same period in FY 2015, FY 2016 sources through  
January were $2.4 billion (13.5%) higher. Much of the increase is due to  
an accounting change related to Medicaid expenditures which pushed  
federal grants higher in FY 2016 by $1.6 billion (28.0%). In the current  
fiscal year, expenditures for individuals who became eligible for  
Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act are made from the GRF, but  
in the past, such expenditures were debited from the Health Care Federal  
6
Fund, a non-GRF fund.  
GRF tax receipts grew by $671.3 million (5.4%), from the  
corresponding period in FY 2015. The taxes that contributed the most to  
year over year revenue growth are the sales and use tax, the CAT, and  
the cigarette tax. Sales and use tax revenue growth is largely reflective of  
a healthy state economy and strong consumer spending, while the  
growth in the CAT and cigarette tax revenue are more the result of policy  
changes. H.B. 64, the budget act, increased the share of CAT receipts  
credited to the GRF from 50% to 75%, and raised the cigarette tax rate  
from $1.25 per pack of 20 cigarettes to $1.60 per pack. Despite healthy  
employment gains in the state during FY 2016, personal income tax  
revenue has fallen by $24.4 million from the same period in FY 2015, also  
due primarily to tax changes enacted in H.B. 64.  
Personal  
income tax  
revenue came  
in below  
Personal Income Tax  
Despite a brief respite during December, the personal income tax  
continued its FY 2016 trend in January, coming in below estimate. It was  
the fourth revenue shortfall out of the last five months, and fifth out of  
seven total months in FY 2016. January GRF revenue from the personal  
income tax was $923.6 million, $37.0 million (3.9%) below the estimate  
estimate for  
the fourth time  
in five months. recently revised by OBM. It was the second largest monthly shortfall for  
the personal income tax in FY 2016, and the fourth time that the tax fell  
below monthly estimates by at least 3%.  
5 H.B. 340 enacted a tax deduction under the CAT, and repealed a tax  
credit under the FIT. Details about these changes can be found in the fiscal note  
for H.B. 340, available on the LSC website.  
6 Fund 3F00.  
Budget Footnotes  
6
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Personal income tax revenue is comprised of gross collections, minus  
refunds and distributions to the Local Government Fund (LGF). Gross  
7
collections consist of employer withholdings, quarterly estimated payments,  
trust payments, payments associated with annual returns, and other  
miscellaneous payments. The performance of the tax is typically driven by  
employer withholdings, which is the largest component of gross collections.  
In January, employer withholdings missed estimates by $38.0 million (5.0%).  
Additionally, payments from annual returns were $7.2 million (38.9%) lower  
than expected. Partially offsetting the deficit, quarterly estimated payments  
in January were $8.3 million (3.0%) higher than expected.  
For FY 2016, personal income tax revenues totaled $5.13 billion Personal  
through January, $116.6 million (2.2%) below estimate, and $24.4 million income tax  
(
0.5%) less than the corresponding period in FY 2015. All components of revenue was  
gross collections have contributed to the FY 2016 shortfall relative to OBM  
estimates, with the exception of trust payments. Employer withholding, $  
116.6 million  
quarterly estimated payments, payments from annual returns, and other below estimate  
miscellaneous payments have all been below estimate. However, the largest through  
contribution to the personal income tax budget deficit thus far has been January.  
refunds, which were $63.9 million (23.2%) higher than estimated in the fiscal  
year through January. FY 2016 revenues through January from each  
component of the personal income tax relative to estimates and to the  
corresponding period in FY 2015 are detailed in the table below.  
FY 2016 Year-to-Date Income Tax Revenue  
Variances and Changes by Component  
Year-to-Date Variance  
from Estimate  
Year-to-Date Changes  
from FY 2015  
Category  
Amount  
Percentage  
Amount  
Percentage  
(
$ in millions)  
(%)  
($ in millions)  
(%)  
Withholding  
-$34.5  
-$5.1  
-0.7%  
-0.7%  
13.8%  
-7.8%  
-17.0%  
-0.9%  
23.2%  
-0.8%  
-2.2%  
$56.9  
-$25.2  
$8.3  
1.2%  
-3.5%  
35.0%  
-3.9%  
-19.8%  
0.4%  
Quarterly Estimated Payments  
Trust Payments  
$3.9  
Annual Return Payments  
Miscellaneous Payments  
Gross Collections  
-$10.3  
-$8.4  
-$4.9  
-$10.1  
$25.0  
$36.0  
$13.4  
-$24.4  
-$54.5  
$63.9  
-$1.8  
Less Refunds  
11.9%  
6.5%  
Less LGF Distribution  
Income Tax Revenue  
-$116.6  
-0.5%  
7 Quarterly estimated payments are made by taxpayers who expect to be  
underwithheld by more than $500. Payments are due in April, June, and  
September of an individual's tax year and January of the following year. Most  
estimated payments are made by high-income taxpayers.  
February 2016  
7
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
January's shortfall occurred even though OBM's estimate of  
monthly personal income tax revenue incorporated the enactment of  
S.B. 208 for the first time. The revisions reduced estimates for January  
income tax revenue by $3.2 million, and will reduce future FY 2016 OBM  
estimates of personal income tax revenue by $72.9 million, $62.4 million  
of which are estimated to be additional refunds.  
H.B. 64, the budget act, reduced income tax rates for all brackets  
by 6.3%, for taxable years beginning in 2015. The Department of Taxation  
issued new withholding tables, reflecting a 3.1% reduction in  
withholding rates previously in effect for 2014, to be used for payrolls  
that end on or after August 1, 2015. The effects of these changes enacted  
in H.B. 64 and S.B. 208 restrain growth in revenue from the tax. The chart  
below illustrates the slowing growth of monthly employer withholdings  
as well as the deficit relative to estimates in recent months (actual figures  
in the chart are not adjusted for the August change in withholding rates).  
Chart 2: Monthly Withholding Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Actual  
Estimate  
-1%  
Sales and use  
tax revenue  
was  
Sales and Use Tax  
The sales and use tax continued its role in January as the  
workhorse of GRF tax receipts in FY 2016. Total receipts for the month  
were $960.6 million, $8.0 million (0.8%) over estimate. It was the fifth out  
of seven months in FY 2016 that sales and use tax receipts came in above  
estimate. For the fiscal year-to-date through January, sales and use tax  
revenues are $78.3 million (1.3%) above estimate, and 4.8% higher than  
revenues through the same period in FY 2015.  
$
78.3 million  
above estimate  
through  
January.  
For analysis and forecasting, the sales and use tax is separated into  
two parts: auto and nonauto. Auto sales and use tax collections generally  
Budget Footnotes  
8
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
arise from the sale of motor vehicles, but auto taxes arising from leases are  
paid at the lease signing and are mostly recorded under the nonauto tax  
instead of the auto tax.8  
Nonauto Sales and Use Tax  
The GRF received $864.4 million in revenue from the nonauto  
portion of the sales and use tax in January, $3.3 million (0.4%) more than  
estimated by OBM. It was the highest ever monthly total from the  
category, reflecting a healthy holiday sales peak in December (with the  
Nonauto sales  
and use tax  
revenues were  
majority of tax revenue hitting the GRF in January), and the slow climb of  
9
inflation. For FY 2016 through January, nonauto sales and use tax $48.2 million  
revenues were $48.2 million (0.9%) over estimate, and 5.1% higher than  
above estimate  
the same period in FY 2015. However, after over $50 million in surplus  
during July and August, the revenue from this portion of the tax has been  
very close to its estimate in the subsequent months. Consumer spending  
through  
January.  
has largely driven the national economy in late calendar year 2015, and  
state GRF revenue has been no different.  
A portion of the nonauto sales and use tax receipts are paid by  
Medicaid health insuring corporations. This portion generally makes up a  
little less than 10% of the category receipts and is not always highly  
correlated with the remainder of nonauto sales and use taxes. In the past,  
this portion of the revenues has grown at a faster pace than the rest of the  
category, but through January of this year, had grown only about 2.0%  
from the same period in FY 2015, significantly slower than the other  
nonauto sales and use tax revenues.  
The chart below shows year over year changes in nonauto sales and  
use tax monthly revenues on a three-month moving average. The chart  
illustrates revenues growing well above the rate of inflation, but at a  
slower pace than in the past. Average growth over the most recent three  
months was 5.3%. Part of the slowdown in growth is due to the portion  
paid by Medicaid health insuring corporations, which has slowed growth  
significantly in FY 2016. In the most recent three months, that portion of  
8 Taxes arising from leases are paid immediately upon the lease signing.  
The clerks of court generally make auto sales and use tax payments on Mondays  
for taxes collected during the preceding week on motor vehicles, watercraft, and  
outboard motors titled. Therefore, auto sales and use tax receipts mostly, but not  
perfectly, reflect vehicles sold and titled during the month.  
9
Changes in the statewide sales tax rate, currently 5.75%, were a  
contributing factor as well. The current rate is as high or higher than it has been  
in the past, except for fiscal years 2004 and 2005, when it was 6.0%.  
February 2016  
9
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
receipts fell by 0.1% year over year on average, as compared to the three  
months ended January 2015 when it grew by 55.6% on average.  
Chart 3: Nonauto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
1
1
2%  
0%  
8
6
4
2
0
%
%
%
%
%
Auto Sales and Use Tax  
Auto sales and  
use tax  
The GRF received $96.1 million in revenue from the auto portion  
of the sales and use tax in January, $4.6 million (5.1%) more than  
estimated. It was the fifth out of seven months in FY 2016 that the auto  
sales and use tax revenue was higher than expected. For the fiscal year  
through January, revenue is $30.1 million (4.1%) above estimate, and  
revenue was  
$
30.1 million  
above estimate  
through  
3
.2% higher than during the same period in FY 2015. The chart below  
shows year over year changes in auto sales and use tax monthly  
revenues on a three-month moving average. The chart illustrates  
revenues growing at a fairly consistent pace, well above any level of  
inflation. Average growth over the most recent three months was 8.3%.  
January.  
Chart 4: Auto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
1
1
2%  
0%  
8
6
4
2
0
%
%
%
%
%
Budget Footnotes  
10  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
U.S. auto sales have been very strong recently, with an all-time  
record of total light vehicle sales set in calendar year 2015. Sales remained  
strong in January. Despite poor weather in many big east coast cities, sales  
of cars and light trucks rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of  
1
7.5 million units, up from 17.2 million in December. Light trucks have  
continued to be the best sellers recently, a change that has helped to push  
up the average auto sales price and therefore sales and use tax revenue in  
the category.  
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Tax  
GRF receipts from the cigarette and other tobacco products tax  
were $71.1 million in January, just $0.6 million (0.9%) below estimate.  
Through January, total FY 2016 tax receipts were $21.5 million (4.1%)  
above OBM estimates, and 25.8% above revenue from the same period in  
FY 2015. Generally, cigarette tax receipts have experienced a long-term  
Cigarette tax  
revenue was  
$
21.5 million  
downward trend, however H.B. 64 increased the cigarette tax from above estimate  
$
1.25 to $1.60 per pack of 20 cigarettes, a 28% increase, which has led to a  
through  
January.  
predictable increase in tax revenues. Of the $71.1 million in January  
revenue, $67.6 million (95.2%) was from cigarette sales, $3.4 million (4.8%)  
was from sales of other tobacco products, and only $44,000 (0.1%) was  
from the "floor tax." Floor tax collections have been $16.1 million during  
FY 2016 through January.  
1
0
10 The "floor tax" is the additional $0.35 tax paid by tobacco dealers for  
cigarettes in inventory (for which the old tax rate had been paid) when the new  
tax rate went into effect on July 1, 2015.  
February 2016  
11  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 3: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of January 2016  
(
$ in thousands)  
(
Actual based on OAKS reports run February 8, 2016)  
PROGRAM  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$661,762  
$658,839  
$2,923  
0.4%  
$181,341  
$10,212  
$182,471  
$7,172  
-$1,130  
$3,040  
$4,834  
-0.6%  
42.4%  
0.6%  
Other Education  
Total Education  
$853,315  
$848,481  
Medicaid  
$1,325,985  
$142,535  
$1,487,956  
$163,660  
-$161,971  
-$21,126  
-$183,097  
-10.9%  
-12.9%  
-11.1%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Welfare and Human Services  
$1,468,519  
$1,651,616  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$224,324  
$38,530  
$234,913  
$45,909  
-$10,588  
-$7,379  
-4.5%  
-16.1%  
-6.4%  
Total Government Operations  
$262,854  
$280,821  
-$17,967  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Capital Outlay  
-$1,614  
$0  
$76  
$0  
-$1,690  
$0  
-2218.1%  
---  
Debt Service  
$96,871  
$95,257  
$104,214  
$104,290  
-$7,344  
-$9,034  
-7.0%  
-8.7%  
Total Other Expenditures  
Total Program Expenditures  
$2,679,944  
$2,885,209  
-$205,265  
-7.1%  
TRANSFERS  
Budget Stabilization  
Other Transfers Out  
Total Transfers Out  
$0  
$26  
$26  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$26  
$26  
---  
---  
---  
TOTAL GRF USES  
$2,679,970  
$2,885,209  
-$205,239  
-7.1%  
*
October 2015 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
12  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 4: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2016 as of January 31, 2016  
(
$ in thousands)  
(
Actual based on OAKS reports run February 8, 2016)  
Percent  
Change  
PROGRAM  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
FY 2015  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$4,748,335  
$1,294,460  
$48,786  
$4,776,138  
-$27,803  
-0.6%  
-0.7%  
6.2%  
$4,309,887  
$1,243,059  
$38,304  
10.2%  
4.1%  
$1,303,936  
$45,950  
-$9,476  
$2,836  
Other Education  
27.4%  
8.9%  
Total Education  
$6,091,582  
$6,126,024  
-$34,442  
-0.6%  
$5,591,250  
Medicaid  
$10,628,491  
$805,022  
$11,016,873  
$887,172  
-$388,382  
-$82,150  
-$470,532  
-3.5%  
-9.3%  
-4.0%  
$9,259,853  
$841,027  
14.8%  
-4.3%  
13.2%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Welfare and Human Services  
$11,433,512  
$11,904,044  
$10,100,879  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$1,241,411  
$223,291  
$1,240,067  
$245,011  
$1,344  
-$21,720  
-$20,376  
0.1%  
-8.9%  
-1.4%  
$1,173,320  
$216,285  
5.8%  
3.2%  
5.4%  
Total Government Operations  
$1,464,703  
$1,485,079  
$1,389,605  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Capital Outlay  
$897,181  
$0  
$904,987  
$0  
-$7,806  
$0  
-0.9%  
---  
$908,135  
$0  
-1.2%  
---  
Debt Service  
$977,669  
$1,874,850  
$987,189  
$1,892,175  
-$9,520  
-$17,326  
-1.0%  
-0.9%  
$953,387  
$1,861,521  
2.5%  
0.7%  
Total Other Expenditures  
Total Program Expenditures  
$20,864,646  
$21,407,323  
-$542,676  
-2.5%  
$18,943,256  
10.1%  
TRANSFERS  
Budget Stabilization  
Other Transfers Out  
Total Transfers Out  
$425,500  
$388,260  
$813,760  
$425,500  
$375,031  
$800,531  
$0  
$13,229  
$13,229  
0.0%  
3.5%  
1.7%  
$0  
$588,788  
$588,788  
---  
-34.1%  
38.2%  
TOTAL GRF USES  
$21,678,406  
$22,207,854  
-$529,447  
-2.4%  
$19,532,044  
11.0%  
*
October 2015 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
February 2016  
13  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5: Medicaid Expenditures by Department  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on February 5, 2016)  
Month of January 2016  
Year to Date Through January 2016  
Department  
Medicaid  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
$1,620,751  
$1,276,371  
$344,380  
$1,813,096  
$1,438,706  
$374,390  
-$192,346  
-$162,336  
-$30,010  
-10.6%  
-11.3%  
-8.0%  
$12,715,569  
$10,279,418  
$2,436,151  
$13,353,532  
$10,670,515  
$2,683,017  
-$637,963  
-$391,097  
-$246,866  
-4.8%  
-3.7%  
-9.2%  
GRF  
Non-GRF  
Developmental Disabilities  
$183,478  
$45,331  
$200,567  
$44,261  
-$17,089  
$1,070  
-8.5%  
2.4%  
$1,344,885  
$295,781  
$1,444,229  
$292,103  
-$99,344  
$3,677  
-6.9%  
1.3%  
GRF  
Non-GRF  
$138,148  
$156,307  
-$18,159  
-11.6%  
$1,049,105  
$1,152,126  
-$103,021  
-8.9%  
Job and Family Services  
$12,179  
$3,240  
$8,939  
$13,206  
$4,187  
$9,019  
-$1,028  
-$948  
-$80  
-7.8%  
-22.6%  
-0.9%  
$128,676  
$47,640  
$81,036  
$123,070  
$48,806  
$74,263  
$5,607  
-$1,166  
$6,773  
4.6%  
-2.4%  
9.1%  
GRF  
Non-GRF  
Health  
GRF  
$558  
$370  
$188  
$751  
$393  
$358  
-$193  
-$23  
-25.7%  
-5.8%  
$3,740  
$2,069  
$1,671  
$4,442  
$2,072  
$2,370  
-$702 -15.8%  
-$3 -0.1%  
-$699 -29.5%  
Non-GRF  
-$170  
-47.6%  
Aging  
$1,580  
$369  
$2,490  
$344  
-$910  
$25  
-36.5%  
7.2%  
$14,067  
$2,319  
$15,317  
$1,964  
-$1,250  
-8.2%  
GRF  
$356  
18.1%  
Non-GRF  
$1,211  
$2,146  
-$935  
-43.6%  
$11,748  
$13,353  
-$1,605 -12.0%  
Mental Health and Addiction  
$615  
$305  
$310  
$415  
$65  
$200  
48.2%  
$2,925  
$1,263  
$1,661  
$3,586  
$1,412  
$2,174  
-$661 -18.4%  
-$148 -10.5%  
-$513 -23.6%  
GRF  
$240 368.9%  
Non-GRF  
$350  
-$40  
-11.3%  
Total GRF  
$1,325,985  
$493,176  
$1,487,956  
$542,569  
-$161,972  
-$49,394  
-10.9%  
-9.1%  
$10,628,491  
$3,581,372  
$11,016,873  
$3,927,303  
-$388,382  
-$345,931  
-3.5%  
-8.8%  
Total Non-GRF  
Total All Funds  
$1,819,160  
$2,030,525  
-$211,365  
-10.4%  
$14,209,862  
$14,944,175  
-$734,313  
-4.9%  
*Estimates are from the Department of Medicaid.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
14  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6: All-Funds Medicaid Expenditures by Payment Category  
Actual vs. Estimate  
(
$ in thousands)  
Actuals based on OAKS report run on February 5, 2016)  
January Year to Date Through January 2016  
Variance  
(
Payment Category  
Managed Care  
Nursing Facilities  
DDD Services  
Hospitals  
Actual  
Estimate*  
$878,674  
$120,407  
$195,753  
$102,103  
$83,373  
$93,811  
$25,064  
$35,644  
$37,635  
$17,687  
$24,556  
$12,644  
$319,594  
$83,578  
Percent  
-10.9%  
0.1%  
Actual  
Estimate*  
$6,144,796  
$830,209  
$1,396,742  
$1,399,255  
$651,076  
$714,448  
$189,659  
$271,734  
$258,052  
$172,302  
$170,856  
$96,931  
Variance  
-$233,183  
-$27,030  
-$88,913  
Percent  
-3.8%  
$783,299  
$120,520  
$179,991  
$73,673  
$74,983  
$49,582  
$25,297  
$33,574  
$41,992  
$17,669  
$24,366  
$9,765  
-$95,375  
$112  
$5,911,613  
$803,179  
$1,307,829  
$1,200,936  
$603,783  
$460,938  
$183,882  
$269,587  
$261,688  
$151,363  
$169,741  
$73,374  
-3.3%  
-$15,762  
-$28,431  
-$8,390  
-$44,229  
$233  
-8.1%  
-6.4%  
-27.8%  
-10.1%  
-47.1%  
0.9%  
-$198,318 -14.2%  
-$47,293 -7.3%  
-$253,511 -35.5%  
Behavioral Health  
Administration  
Aging Waivers  
Prescription Drugs  
Medicare Buy-In  
Physicians  
-$5,777  
-$2,147  
$3,636  
-3.0%  
-0.8%  
1.4%  
-$2,070  
$4,356  
-5.8%  
11.6%  
-0.1%  
-$18  
-$20,939 -12.2%  
-$1,115 -0.7%  
-$23,558 -24.3%  
Medicare Part D  
Home Care Waivers  
ACA Expansion  
All Other  
-$190  
-0.8%  
-$2,879  
-$7,149  
-$11,574  
-$211,365  
-22.8%  
-2.2%  
$312,445  
$72,004  
$2,198,253  
$613,695  
$2,003,597  
$644,518  
$194,657  
-$30,822  
-$734,313  
9.7%  
-4.8%  
-4.9%  
-13.8%  
-10.4%  
Total All Funds  
$1,819,160 $2,030,525  
$14,209,862 $14,944,175  
*
Estimates are from the Department of Medicaid.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
February 2016  
15  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
EXPENDITURES  
Russ Keller, Senior Economist, 614-644-1751  
Nicholas J. Blaine, Budget Analyst, 614-387-5418  
Overview  
Tables 3 and 4 show GRF uses for the month of January and for  
FY 2016 through January, respectively. GRF uses mainly consist of  
program expenditures but also include transfers out. For the month of  
January, GRF program expenditures were $2.68 billion, $205.3 million  
(7.1%) below the estimate released by OBM in October 2015. The majority  
of this monthly variance occurred in Medicaid ($162.0 million) and  
Health and Human Services ($21.1 million). Through January, FY 2016  
GRF program expenditures were $20.86 billion, $542.7 million (2.5%)  
below estimate. The majority of this year-to-date variance also occurred  
in Medicaid ($388.4 million) and Health and Human Services  
($82.2 million). In addition, expenditures from Primary and Secondary  
Education and General Government were $27.8 million (0.6%) and  
For the first  
seven months  
of FY 2016, GRF  
uses were  
$
529.4 million  
below  
estimate.  
$
21.7 million (8.9%), respectively, below their year-to-date estimates.  
Through January, GRF transfers out were $813.8 million,  
13.2 million (1.7%) above estimate. Including both program  
$
expenditures and transfers out, GRF uses totaled $21.68 billion through  
January. These uses were $529.4 million (2.4%) below estimate.  
The remainder of this report will first discuss the variances in  
Medicaid expenditures and then briefly comment on the variances in the  
Health and Human Services, Primary and Secondary Education, and  
General Government program categories.  
Medicaid  
For the first  
seven months  
of FY 2016, GRF  
Medicaid  
For the month of January, GRF Medicaid expenditures were  
$1.33 billion, $162.0 million (10.9%) below estimate; non-GRF Medicaid  
expenditures were $493.2 million, $49.4 million (9.1%) below estimate.  
Including both the GRF and non-GRF, all-funds Medicaid expenditures  
were $1.82 billion in January, $211.4 million (10.4%) below estimate.  
Medicaid is primarily funded by the GRF but it also receives funding  
from various non-GRF funds. As a joint federal-state program, both GRF  
and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.  
Overall, the federal and state shares of Medicaid expenditures are about  
expenditures  
were  
$
388.4 million  
below  
6
4% and 36%, respectively.  
estimate.  
Through January, GRF Medicaid expenditures were $10.63 billion,  
which was $388.4 million (3.5%) below estimate, while non-GRF  
expenditures were $3.58 billion, which was $345.9 million (8.8%) below  
Budget Footnotes  
16  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
estimate. Across all funds, Medicaid expenditures totaled $14.21 billion  
for the first seven months of FY 2016. These expenditures were  
$
734.3 million (4.9%) below estimate.  
For the first  
The Ohio Department of Medicaid (ODM) has the primary  
seven months  
responsibility for administering Medicaid; it is assisted by five other state  
agencies Developmental Disabilities, Job and Family Services, Health, of FY 2016, all-  
Aging, and Mental Health and Addiction Services. Table 5 details the GRF  
funds Medicaid  
and non-GRF portions of Medicaid expenditures for each of the six  
agencies that take part in administering Ohio Medicaid. As seen from the  
table, through January, ODM's GRF expenditures of $10.28 billion were  
expenditures  
were  
$
$
391.1 million (3.7%) below estimate. ODM's non-GRF expenditures of $734.3 million  
2.44 billion were $246.9 million (9.2%) below estimate. Across all funds,  
below  
ODM's year-to-date expenditures of $12.72 billion were $638.0 million  
estimate.  
(4.8%) below estimate. The Department of Developmental Disabilities  
DDD) registered a positive year-to-date variance of $3.7 million (1.3%) in  
(
GRF Medicaid expenditures but a negative year-to-date variance of  
103.0 million (8.9%) in non-GRF Medicaid expenditures for an overall  
$
negative year-to-date variance of $99.3 million (6.9%) in all-funds  
Medicaid expenditures. Together, ODM and DDD account for about 99%  
of total Medicaid expenditures.  
Table 6 details all-funds Medicaid expenditures by payment  
category. As seen from the table, year-to-date expenditures were below  
estimates for all but two payment categories. Administration had the  
largest negative year-to-date variance at $253.5 million (35.5%), of which  
$
44.2 million occurred in January. The estimate for this payment category  
includes the contract for ODM's new eligibility determination system,  
Ohio Benefits, and pass-through federal grants for electronic medical  
records. The cost for Ohio Benefits has been lower than anticipated. The  
demand for the federal grants has also been lower than expected. These  
two factors accounted for the majority of the negative variance in the  
Administration payment category.  
Managed Care had the largest negative monthly variance of  
$
95.4 million in January and the second largest negative year-to-date  
variance of $233.2 million (3.8%). One main contributing factor was lower  
than expected new managed care rates. Managed care rates are adjusted at  
the beginning of each calendar year. The new rates, effective  
January 1, 2016, are lower than the ones assumed in the estimate. Another  
main contributor was lower than expected Aged, Blind, and Disabled  
(ABD) caseloads in managed care. Per member per month cost for an ABD  
is much higher than that of a non-ABD Medicaid recipient. While ABDs  
February 2016  
17  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
make up about 15% of all Medicaid recipients, they account for about  
half of all Medicaid expenditures.  
A lower than anticipated per member per month cost for an ABD  
enrolled in fee-for-service was the primary factor behind the negative  
variance in the Hospitals payment category, which had the third largest  
negative year-to-date variance. A forecasted increase in such a per  
member per month cost was included in the estimate for the Hospitals  
payment category. So far, the forecasted increase has not yet  
materialized. Expenditures from the Hospitals payment category were  
For the first  
seven months  
of FY 2016, all-  
funds ACA  
Expansion  
$
28.4 million (27.8%) below estimate in January and $198.3 million  
(14.2%) below estimate through January.  
ACA Expansion and Medicare Buy-in were the only two payment  
categories with positive year-to-date variances. Through January, ACA  
Expansion expenditures of $2.20 billion were $194.7 million (9.7%) above  
estimate. This positive variance was due largely to higher than expected  
caseloads. Some individuals who are currently classified under ACA  
Expansion may later be determined to be eligible under another category  
of coverage instead. If those individuals are recategorized, their costs  
would shift in future months. Note that the ACA Expansion payment  
category registered its first negative monthly variance ($7.1 million,  
expenditures  
were  
$
194.7 million  
above  
estimate.  
2
.2%) of the fiscal year in January.  
Year-to-date expenditures of $261.7 million from the Medicare  
Buy-in payment category were $3.6 million (1.4%) above estimate due  
entirely to a positive monthly variance of $4.4 million (11.6%) in January  
from the category. The Medicare Buy-in Program pays Medicare  
premiums, deductibles, and coinsurance for certain low-income Ohioans.  
This payment category experienced a positive variance in January for the  
first time this fiscal year, due to a larger than anticipated increase in  
Medicare Part B premiums, effective January 1, 2016.  
Health and Human Services  
GRF expenditures from the Health and Human Services program  
category were $142.5 million in January, $21.1 million (12.9%) below  
estimate. Through January, this program category's expenditures were  
$
805.0 million, $82.2 million (9.3%) below estimate. The Ohio Department  
of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) accounted for the largest share  
$42.4 million) of the category's negative year-to-date variance, followed  
by the Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services (DMHAS) at  
(
$
21.4 million and the Department of Health (DOH) at $12.7 million.  
Expenditures from the majority of ODJFS line items were below  
their year-to-date estimates. The largest negative year-to-date variance  
Budget Footnotes  
18  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
($15.2 million) within the ODJFS budget occurred in item 600410, TANF  
State/Maintenance of Effort. According to prior issues of OBM's Monthly  
Financial Report, this item's expenditures were partly affected by lower  
than anticipated cash assistance caseloads and partly by a change in the  
state/federal funding split. Other notable negative variances were from  
item 600416, Information Technology Projects ($7.6 million), item 600413,  
Child Care State/Maintenance of Effort ($5.7 million), and item 600521,  
Family Assistance  
-
Local ($3.6 million). Lower than expected  
disbursements from prior year encumbrances contributed to the negative  
variance in item 600416. The negative variances in items 600413 and  
6
00521 were timing related as disbursements from these items were made  
based on counties' drawdown of funding.  
Within the DMHAS budget, item 336423, Addiction Services  
Partnership with Correction, had the largest negative year-to-date  
variance. Expenditures from this item were $8.6 million below their year-  
to-date estimate. Expenditures from item 336504, Community  
Innovations, were also $4.4 million below their year-to-date estimate.  
These two items were newly created in H.B. 64, the current biennium's  
budget act. Item 336422, Criminal Justice Services, contributed another  
$
3.7 million to the program category's negative year-to-date variance.  
Year-to-date expenditures from all but two of DOH's line items  
were below estimates. The largest negative variance occurred in item  
4
$
40459, Help Me Grow. Through January, this item's expenditures were  
3.0 million below estimate.  
Primary and Secondary Education  
GRF expenditures from the Primary and Secondary Education  
program category were $4.75 billion through January, $27.8 million (0.6%)  
below estimate. The Ohio Department of Education (ODE) is the only  
agency that is included in this program category. Due mainly to timing,  
expenditures from several line items were either above or below their  
year-to-date estimates. Items with notable negative year-to-date variances  
include item 200437, Student Assessments, at $22.7 million, item 200540,  
Special Education Enhancements, at $13.4 million, and item 200408, Early  
Childhood Education, at $9.8 million. Item 200550, Foundation Funding,  
on the other hand, posted a notable positive year-to-date variance of  
$
25.5 million. Item 200550 is the main funding source of school foundation  
payments. Beginning in February, ODE will start using the current year  
student enrollment for payment calculations. It is not unusual to see  
variances in this item as individual school foundation payments are based  
February 2016  
19  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
on a variety of data that may not be finalized until much later in the fiscal  
year.  
General Government  
Through January, GRF expenditures from the General  
Government program category of $223.3 million were $21.7 million  
8.9%) below estimate. This program category consists of executive  
agencies that are not included in other program categories, four out of  
(
1
1
the five statewide elected offices, and all legislative agencies. The  
Department of Administrative Services (DAS) and the Development  
Services Agency (DSA) had the largest variances in this program  
category. Expenditures from DAS and DSA were $6.3 million and  
$
5.5 million, respectively, below their year-to-date estimates; the majority  
of these negative variances occurred in the month of January.  
Year-to-date expenditures from most other agencies in the General  
Government program category were also below estimates, by various  
amounts.  
11 The offices of the Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, and Auditor  
of State are included in the General Government program category while the  
Office of the Attorney General is included in the Justice and Public Protection  
program category.  
Budget Footnotes  
20  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
ISSUE UPDATES  
Controlling Board Approves Equipment Purchase for Newborn Screening  
Jacquelyn Schroeder, Budget Analyst, 614-466-3279  
On January 11, 2016, the Controlling Board approved a $900,000 spending  
request from the Ohio Department of Health (ODH) to purchase reagents, supplies, and  
laboratory equipment for newborn screenings related to Krabbe disease. This purchase  
is in response to H.B. 64 of the 131st General Assembly, which requires ODH to begin  
screening newborn children born on or after July 1, 2016 for this disease. Ohio is one of  
six states (the others are Illinois, Kentucky, New Jersey, New Mexico, and  
Pennsylvania) that have recently enacted laws requiring Krabbe disease screenings for  
1
2
newborns. New York and Missouri already screen for this disease.  
Krabbe disease is an inherited disorder that impacts the myelin sheath of the  
nervous system. Symptoms typically develop before six months of age and may include  
the following: feeding difficulty, fevers with no signs of infection, delays in  
developmental milestones, muscle spasms, loss of head control, progressive loss of  
hearing and sight, or seizures. The disease impacts 1 in 100,000 individuals in the  
United States.  
Currently, ODH's Newborn Screening Program includes screening for 36 genetic,  
endocrine, or metabolic disorders, all performed at the Public Health Laboratory. When  
a newborn is born in a hospital or birthing center, a few drops of blood are taken from  
the baby's heel prior to the baby leaving the hospital and sent to the ODH Public Health  
Laboratory for testing. ODH estimates that approximately 138,000 newborns will be  
screened this year.  
ODE Awards Competency-Based Education Pilot Program Grants  
Jason Glover, Budget Analyst, 614-466-8742  
On December 16, 2015, the Ohio Department of Education (ODE) announced the  
five Ohio public school districts and consortia that have been awarded a total of  
2 million in grants over the FY 2016-FY 2017 biennium under the Competency-Based  
$
Pilot Program established in H.B. 64. The five grant winners are Chagrin Falls  
Exempted Village School District, Cincinnati City School District, and three consortiums  
led by the Educational Service Center of Cuyahoga County, the Fairfield County  
12 According to the Hunter's Hope Foundation, an organization founded in 1997 to raise  
awareness of Krabbe disease and other related disorders.  
February 2016  
21  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Educational Service Center, and the Geauga County Educational Service Center,  
respectively. Each grant recipient will receive $200,000 each year to plan and implement  
their programs. The programs must be implemented for the 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and  
2
018-2019 school years. Among other requirements, award recipients are required to  
partner with a postsecondary institution and local businesses or community partners.  
In contrast to traditional education systems that award credit based on the  
amount of time spent studying a subject, a competency-based education system allows  
students to progress through classes at their own pace. It is designed to facilitate  
accelerated learning for students who master academic material quickly and provide  
additional instructional support time for students who need it. H.B. 64 requires ODE,  
by December 31, 2018, to review and evaluate the competency-based education  
programs implemented by grant recipients, including student outcomes, and determine  
the feasibility of a funding model that reflects student achievement outcomes  
demonstrated through competency-based education.  
ODE and DHE Select Recipients for $10 million in College Credit Plus  
Teacher Credential Grants  
Adam Wefler, Budget Analyst, 614-466-0632  
In December 2015, the departments of Education and Higher Education (DHE)  
selected the school districts, colleges, and universities to share $10 million in funding set  
aside in H.B. 64 to increase the number of high school teachers with the credentials  
required to teach college courses under College Credit Plus (CCP), a program that  
allows qualified high school students to take college courses at state expense for both  
college and high school credit. The table below lists the recipients and award amounts  
for each purpose. The overall goal of the teacher credential funding is to increase  
participation in CCP and thus, reduce the cost of higher education for students. Half of  
these funds will help high schools, colleges, and universities identify and support  
teachers seeking the necessary qualifications to teach postsecondary courses while the  
other half will assist universities in creating and offering qualification courses for free or  
at reduced cost. Both types of grants are funded through FY 2016 earmarks of Fund  
5
RB0 line item 200644, Straight A Fund, in ODE's budget.  
Budget Footnotes  
22  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
College Credit Plus Teacher Credential Grant Awards  
Recipient  
Award Amount  
Teacher Support Grants  
Recipient  
Award Amount  
Mahoning County ESC  
$1,078,822  
$835,602  
$431,049  
$302,237  
$227,577  
$38,898  
East Central Ohio ESC  
Kent State University at Stark  
University of Toledo  
$932,167  
$498,442  
$311,609  
$267,929  
$38,898  
Ohio Appalachian Collaborative  
North Central State College  
Cuyahoga Community College  
Sinclair Community College  
Westlake CSD  
Midwest Regional ESC  
St. Bernard-Elmwood Place CSD  
Gallipolis CSD  
$36,768  
Free or Reduced Cost Course Grants  
Franklin University  
$884,615  
$702,820  
$499,998  
$454,720  
Bowling Green State University  
$800,000  
$692,608  
$499,022  
$450,000  
Wright State University  
University of Cincinnati  
University of Toledo  
Cleveland State University  
Kent State University  
Ohio Dominican University  
Attorney General Releases Economic Development Compliance Report  
Jessica Murphy, LSC Fellow, 614-466-9108  
On November 24, 2015, the Ohio Attorney General's Office released its 2015  
1
3
Economic Development Compliance Report, a statutorily required annual review of  
the compliance of recipients with terms and conditions of state awards for economic  
development administered by the Ohio Development Services Agency (DSA). Of the  
3
41 awards examined in the report, 269 were determined to be substantially compliant  
14  
while 72 did not comply, resulting in an overall compliance rate of 78.9%. The metrics  
used to determine compliance included the degree to which a recipient met, as  
applicable, their commitments for job creation, job retention, payroll, and workforce  
training. The report also provides a breakdown of the compliance rates of four main  
award categories: workforce grants (100%), project grants (76.3%), tax credits (73.4%),  
and low-interest loans (81.3%). Furthermore, the report provides information on  
remedial actions taken by DSA, including seeking grant reimbursements totaling  
$
190,900 from nine recipients, reducing tax credits, and increasing loan interest rates.  
The table below shows the compliance rates reported in the 2011-2015 reviews.  
As seen from the table, all four award categories' compliance rates have generally been  
trending upward and the workforce grant category has consistently shown the highest  
13 The full report is available at: www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Media/Newsreleases.  
14 "  
Substantially compliant" means attainment of 90% of the metrics set forth in the  
award agreement.  
February 2016  
23  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
compliance rate. These grants are used by recipients to offset the costs of training  
workers in new skills.  
Economic Development Award Compliance Rates, 2011-2015  
Award Category  
Workforce Grants  
Project Grants  
2011  
88.5%  
27.0%  
2012  
89.9%  
48.6%  
2013  
100.0%  
49.5%  
2014  
100.0%  
74.4%  
2015  
100.0%  
76.3%  
Tax Credits  
Loans  
35.1%  
23.9%  
59.1%  
59.5%  
42.0%  
63.5%  
53.8%  
55.8%  
54.9%  
62.4%  
57.1%  
70.6%  
73.4%  
81.3%  
78.9%  
OVERALL  
ODMHAS Reopens Patient Wing of Regional Psychiatric Hospital  
Nicholas J. Blaine, Budget Analyst, 614-387-5418  
On December 17, 2015, the Ohio Department of Mental Health and Addiction  
Services (ODMHAS) announced the reopening of a newly renovated patient unit at  
Appalachian Behavioral Healthcare (ABH), a state operated regional psychiatric  
hospital. The four-phase, $3.6 million project included renovations of 20 private and  
3
4 semiprivate patient rooms, redesign of dining and common areas, and expansion of  
group and private treatment spaces. The completion of this project restores the facility  
to its full, 88-bed operational capacity; during construction ABH had 74 beds available.  
As of January 2016, the facility has a service area that includes 21 counties in southeast  
Ohio. Including ABH, ODMHAS operates a total of six regional psychiatric hospitals  
that provide inpatient and outpatient services.  
State Forest Timber Sales Provide $2.0 million to  
Local Governments and School Districts  
Tom Wert, Budget Analyst, 614-466-0520  
On December 21, 2015, the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) announced  
that 15 school districts, 25 townships, and 11 county governments would receive more  
than $2.0 million from the sale of timber from state forest lands in FY 2015. Under  
current law, 65% of the net proceeds from the sale of timber must be distributed to the  
county, townships, and school districts from which the timber was harvested. The  
remaining 35% is retained by DNR's Division of Forestry and deposited to the credit of  
the State Forest Fund (Fund 5090). Fund 5090 received approximately $1.7 million in  
total revenue from timber sales in FY 2015, including $1.1 million from its share of net  
proceeds and $562,000 to cover the cost of timber sales. Of the amount distributed to the  
local communities, 50% goes to the school district from which the timber was harvested,  
Budget Footnotes  
24  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
2
5% to the general fund of the township from which the timber was harvested, and 25%  
to the general fund of the respective county. The table below shows the amounts  
received by each type of recipient by county. A full list of recipients can be found at:  
http://forestry.ohiodnr.gov/portals/forestry/pdfs/ttt/TreesToTextbooksFY15.pdf.  
FY 2015 Timber Sale Distributions by Recipient Type  
County  
Adams  
School  
Districts  
County General  
Fund  
Townships  
Total  
$90,248  
$46,005  
$45,124  
$23,003  
$11,722  
$20,677  
$15,514  
$18,881  
$610  
$45,124  
$23,003  
$11,722  
$20,677  
$15,514  
$18,881  
$610  
$180,496  
$92,011  
Athens  
Hocking  
Jackson  
Meigs  
$23,444  
$46,888  
$41,353  
$82,707  
$31,027  
$62,055  
Muskingum  
Perry  
$37,762  
$75,524  
$1,219  
$2,439  
Pike  
$127,251  
$130,650  
$368,274  
$129,942  
$1,027,175  
$63,626  
$65,325  
$184,137  
$64,971  
$513,590  
$63,626  
$65,325  
$184,137  
$64,971  
$513,590  
$254,503  
$261,300  
$736,548  
$259,884  
$2,054,355  
Ross  
Scioto  
Vinton  
TOTAL  
Joint Legislative Task Force on Department of  
Transportation Issues Submits First Report  
Maggie Wolniewicz, Budget Analyst, 614-995-9992  
On December 15, 2015, the Joint Legislative Task Force on Department of  
Transportation Issues submitted to legislative leadership the first of two required  
reports containing findings and recommendations concerning certain specified  
1
5
transportation and public safety-related issues. The task force, created and guided by  
language in H.B. 53 and H.B. 64, was charged with focusing its first report on studying:  
(1) increasing speed limits on, and access to, rural highways and freeways, (2) saving  
money on license plates by eliminating the two-plate requirement, and (3) establishing a  
limited driving privilege license. The report's conclusions are as follows:  
1
5
The Task Force consists of a bipartisan panel of six legislators including three  
members of the House Finance and Appropriations Committee appointed by the Speaker of the  
House of Representatives and three members of the Senate Transportation Committee  
appointed by the President of the Senate. The full report can be found at:  
http://jltft.legislature.ohio.gov.  
February 2016  
25  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Based on the cost to structurally redesign certain features of the interstate  
system in order to maintain current safety standards, and the likely increase  
in crash-related fatalities and injuries, the speed limit should not be increased  
from the current 70 mph to 75 mph.  
The current two license plate requirement should be retained to allow for  
more effective law enforcement operations. The potential state savings to  
adopt a one plate requirement was estimated at up to $1.4 million annually.  
The establishment of a limited driving privilege license containing embedded  
information accessible only to law enforcement officers should be addressed  
in stand-alone legislation.  
The Task Force is also required to submit a second report studying: (1) the  
effectiveness of the Ohio motor fuel tax in meeting the funding needs of the Ohio  
Department of Transportation and (2) alternative methods to fund Ohio roadways and  
infrastructure. The Task Force must submit that report to legislative leadership by  
December 15, 2016, after which it ceases to exist.  
Ohio Rural Fire Departments to Receive $175,000 Under the Federal  
Volunteer Fire Assistance Grant  
Shannon Pleiman, Budget Analyst, 614-466-1154  
On January 5, 2016, DNR Division of Forestry announced that 22 rural fire  
departments in 13 counties will receive approximately $175,000 in matching grants  
under the Federal Volunteer Fire Assistance (VFA) grant. The purpose of the grant is to  
provide funding for rural fire departments to upgrade equipment. Specifically,  
calendar year (CY) 2016 VFA grants can be used to purchase wildland fire slip-in  
pumper units, wildland fire personal protective equipment, all terrain and utility  
vehicles, and Multi-Agency Radio Communication System (MARCS) equipment, and to  
convert Federal Excess Personal Property into fire apparatus. VFA grants provide up to  
$
10,000 to fire departments in communities with populations of fewer than 10,000  
residents. The Division of Forestry indicates that of Ohio's 1,300 fire departments,  
approximately 900 are classified as rural. The table below summarizes the VFA grant  
recipients and the award amounts.  
Budget Footnotes  
26  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Federal Volunteer Fire Assistance Grants  
Fire Department Recipient  
Rome Township  
County  
Grant Amount  
Athens  
Gallia  
Henry  
$10,000  
Vinton  
$10,000  
$7,500  
Rio Grande  
Springfield Township  
$
7,678  
Liberty-Washington Township  
$10,000  
$
10,000  
$4,000  
Murray City  
Good Hope Township  
Marion Township  
Hocking  
$10,000  
Jackson  
Coalton  
$10,000  
$
10,000  
$1,600  
Stratton  
Yorkville  
Jefferson  
Meigs  
Racine  
$7,295  
$5,669  
Muskingum  
Roseville  
Shawnee  
Crooksville  
Somerset-Reading Township  
$9,250  
$10,000  
$6,631  
Perry  
Benton Township  
Beaver  
$5,000  
$10,000  
Pike  
Union Township  
Rarden  
$10,000  
$574  
Scioto  
Vinton  
Zaleski  
$10,000  
$10,000  
Washington  
Little Hocking  
TOTAL  
$175,197  
February 2016  
27  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
TRACKING THE ECONOMY  
Philip A. Cummins, Senior Economist, 614-387-1687  
Thomas Kilbane, Economist, 614-728-3218  
Overview  
Expansion of the national economy continued in early 2016, after  
growth slowed in late 2015. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product  
real GDP) rose at only a 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter. Total  
factory production was about flat in the last five months of the year. Mild  
weather in late 2015 held down demand for utility services. Many other  
sectors of the economy continued to expand. In January, employment on  
nonfarm payrolls nationwide rose 151,000, a smaller monthly gain than  
in most months of 2015. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, the  
lowest in nearly eight years. Consumer spending expanded further in  
Expansion of  
the national  
economy  
(
continued in  
early 2016,  
after growth  
slowed in late  
2
015, though growth slowed late in the year. Sales of light motor vehicles  
2015.  
remained strong in January. Home sales and construction continued to  
advance in 2015.  
The economy in this region also grew in 2015, at a pace described  
as modest. Employment growth in Ohio last year was the strongest in  
1
sales in the state continued to expand in 2015.  
6 years, however, with most of the increase in service industries. Home  
Finished goods inflation remains low, held down in part by  
declines in energy and other commodity prices and by the strong dollar.  
Low crude oil and natural gas prices have led to job cuts and curtailed  
exploration activity by energy producers, while consumers and firms in  
other industries have benefited from lower fuel prices. A strong dollar  
tends to facilitate U.S. imports and curb foreign demand for U.S.-  
produced goods and services.  
The Federal Reserve made no change in monetary policy in  
January. The nation's central bank kept the range for its target short-term  
market interest rate at 0.25% to 0.5%, after raising the range by one-  
quarter percentage point in December, and also held unchanged its  
interest rates charged on loans to commercial banks and paid on bank  
reserves.  
The last section of this report compares the economic outlook as of  
January 2016 with the outlook that LSC economists used last June to  
develop forecasts of GRF revenue in the current biennium.  
Budget Footnotes  
28  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
The National Economy  
Employment and Labor Markets  
In January, employment on nonfarm payrolls rose 151,000,  
seasonally adjusted, down from gains averaging 279,000 per month in last  
year's fourth quarter and 228,000 in all of 2015. Increases in employment  
in January were reported for retail stores, restaurants and bars, and health  
care providers, continuing uptrends in numbers of jobs in these  
industries. Manufacturing employment rose in January after little change  
in 2015. Employment fell in January at private educational service firms  
and for couriers and messengers, due to larger than usual seasonal  
layoffs. The downtrend in mining employment continued. Data indicate  
that weather disrupted work during the survey period in January less  
than usual for that month.  
Nationwide  
unemployment  
fell to  
Nationwide unemployment fell to 7.8 million persons in January,  
4
.9% of the labor force and lowest since 2008. The unemployment rate has  
7
.8 million  
been held down by low rates of participation in the labor force, which  
includes persons working or actively looking for work.1 Labor force persons in  
6
participation of persons age 16 and older in January was 62.7%, up from  
2.4% last September, the lowest since 1977. If more of the people not in  
January, 4.9%  
of the labor  
force and  
6
the labor force had been actively seeking jobs, the unemployment rate  
would have been higher. Low labor force participation is only partly due  
to increasing numbers of older persons retiring. Labor force participation  
among persons age 16 to 64 in January was 72.4%, up from a low of 72.1%  
in 2014, the lowest since 1982.  
lowest since  
2008.  
The number of job openings nationwide at the end of December  
was 5.6 million, based on a BLS survey, and had considerably more than  
doubled (up by 161%) since the low point in 2009.  
Production  
Growth of economic output slowed toward the end of 2015. Real  
GDP rose at only a 0.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, down from a  
2
.0% annual growth rate in the third quarter, as consumer spending  
growth slowed and both business investment and exports fell. For all of  
2
015, real GDP rose 2.4%, the same relatively slow pace as in 2014.  
Total industrial production fell 0.4% in December, the third  
straight monthly decline. Industrial production also fell early last year,  
and at year-end was 1.8% lower than a year earlier, reflecting weakness in  
16 More precisely, the labor force is the number of civilians age 16 and  
over who are either currently employed or unemployed but looked for work in  
the last four weeks.  
February 2016  
29  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
mining and utilities, the latter due to continued unseasonably warm  
weather in December. Manufacturing output fell by 0.1% from  
November to December, and was 0.8% higher at year-end than a year  
earlier, slower year-over-year growth than earlier in the year and in 2014.  
In January, indexes for manufacturing production and new orders  
showed small increases, seasonally adjusted, according to an Institute for  
Supply Management (ISM) survey of purchasing managers. Inventories  
and employment continued to fall. An ISM report on nonmanufacturing  
industries showed continued, but generally slower, growth in January.  
Consumer Spending  
Real consumer spending rose only 0.1% in December as spending  
on goods fell back after a sizable increase in November. Compared with  
a year earlier, real consumer spending in December was 2.6% higher,  
supported by a 3.1% rise in real after-tax income.  
In January, sales of cars and light trucks rose to a 17.5 million unit  
seasonally adjusted annual rate from 17.2 million in December. The  
seasonal adjustment in January is large, hence somewhat uncertain, but  
clearly sales held up well despite the severe weather along the Atlantic  
coast late in the month. In 2015, light vehicle sales set an all-time calendar  
year record at 17.4 million.  
Construction and Real Estate  
Housing starts slowed, seasonally adjusted, in December, but for  
all of 2015 were 11% higher than a year earlier and at the highest rate  
since 2007. Starts on new housing construction in 2015 remained short of  
more typical levels in the past, particularly for single-family homes.  
Housing starts  
for all of 2015  
were at the  
highest rate  
since 2007.  
Sales of new homes last year rose 15%, and were the highest since  
2
007. Sales were still below the pace in most earlier years on record (since  
1963), especially in the Northeast and Midwest. Sales of previously  
occupied homes through realtors, reported by the National Association  
of Realtors, rose 6% in 2015.  
The dollar value of all construction in the U.S. rose 10% last year.  
Private residential construction increased 13%, private nonresidential  
construction rose 12%, and public construction gained 6%.  
Inflation  
The consumer price index (CPI) for all items fell 0.1% in  
December. Compared with its year-earlier level, the CPI-all items rose  
0
.7%, held down by declines in all major energy index components. The  
CPI for all items excluding food and energy rose 2.1% in the latest 12  
months, the largest year-over-year increase in this index since 2012.  
Budget Footnotes  
30  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
The producer price index for final demand fell 0.2% in December,  
and was 1.0% lower at year-end than a year earlier. Final demand goods  
prices were 3.7% lower in December than a year earlier; final demand  
services prices were 0.4% higher. Price declines were widespread at  
earlier stages in the production process.  
Pay increases have edged gradually higher, as measured by the  
Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment cost index. Wage and salary gains  
from a year earlier averaged 2.2% for civilian workers in 2015, up from  
1
.9% in 2014 and highest since 2008 when they averaged 3.1%.  
The Ohio Economy  
Employment and Unemployment  
In 2015, Ohio  
added 82,700  
Despite Ohio's unemployment rate rising to 4.7% in December, the  
labor market ended 2015 with strength, adding 15,200 jobs during the  
1
7
month. For the year, Ohio added 82,700 jobs (+1.5%), the most during a jobs (+1.5%),  
calendar year since 1999. Leading the way throughout 2015, the health  
care and social assistance sector contributed 20,000 jobs (+2.6%). Other  
industries adding sizable numbers of jobs are shown in Chart 5.  
Employment was reduced in arts, entertainment, and recreation, -6,000  
the most  
during a  
calendar year  
(-7.7%); administrative, support, and waste services, -5,300 (-1.6%); since 1999.  
mining and logging, -1,800 (-11.5%); and state government, -1,400 (-0.8%).  
Chart 5: Ohio 2015 Highest Job Gains by Sector  
2
2
1
1
5,000  
0,000  
5,000  
0,000  
20,000  
16,200  
11,700  
9,000  
7,100  
5
,000  
0
Health Care & Accommodation  
Nondurable  
Goods  
Manufacturing  
Transportation, Professional &  
Social  
& Food Services  
Warehousing, &  
Utilities  
Technical  
Services  
Assistance  
17 Nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted.  
February 2016  
31  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
One reason for the rise in the unemployment rate during  
December was an increase in the state's labor force, by 16,000 people. It  
was just enough to bring the change in Ohio's labor force positive for the  
year (+1,000 people). Big losses from the labor force during the summer  
months had helped to deflate the unemployment rate as low as 4.4%, but  
even with the rise to 4.7% in December, it remains below the national  
rate (5.0%) in that month and below Ohio's rate one year earlier (5.1%).  
Home Sales  
Ohio home sales in December were up 10.3% over one year ago,  
ending a healthy 2015 on a strong note. For the year, 143,608 units sold  
Ohio home  
(up 10.2% from 2014) at an average sale price of $155,247 (up 3.8% from  
sales in 2015  
2
014). Since 2000, those sales and price figures have only been topped in  
were up 10.2% 2005, according to the Ohio Association of Realtors. Among local regions,  
015 average sales price growth was the highest in the northwest part of  
2
from 2014.  
the state. Average sales price rose 9.5% in Toledo, 8.0% in Hancock and  
Wyandot counties, and 8.2% across a region including Auglaize, Clark,  
Champaign, Logan, Mercer, Miami, and Shelby counties.  
Regional Economy  
Business activity in the region continued to expand at a modest  
pace through the end of 2015 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of  
1
8
Cleveland's most recent report. Strong demand for motor vehicles  
added to consumer spending and manufacturing activity. Along with  
motor vehicles, the construction and aerospace industries contributed to  
growth in manufacturing activity in the region even as many  
manufacturing sectors around the nation weakened during the period.  
Looking forward, the reported outlook in 2016 for industries across  
Ohio's region was mixed.  
Economic Forecast Update  
The table below compares the outlook for the economy, as  
predicted by forecasting firm Global Insight in January of this year and  
in May 2015. The latter set of predictions as well as other variables were  
inputs to forecasts by LSC economists of GRF revenues, for use by the  
18 Prior to meetings of its Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal  
Reserve publishes the Beige Book, which reports on regional economic activity in  
each of the central bank's districts. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's  
District includes all of Ohio and parts of Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and  
West Virginia. Information in the latest report was collected on or before  
January 4, 2016.  
Budget Footnotes  
32  
February 2016  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Conference Committee in deliberations on H.B. 64, the main operating  
budget act of the current General Assembly.  
Changes to the forecast were generally small. Overall growth of  
real GDP this year was revised downward slightly for the U.S. and  
somewhat more for Ohio. Inflation, measured by the consumer price  
index, was revised lower, as energy prices fell more than previously  
expected. Employment and income growth were revised upward for  
FY 2016; changes were mixed for FY 2017. Unemployment rates have  
fallen more than previously expected.  
Figures shown are percent changes from the average of the four  
quarters in state FY 2015 to that for FY 2016, and from FY 2016 to FY 2017,  
except that unemployment rates are averages for the four quarters of the  
fiscal year indicated.  
Revisions to Global Insight Economic Forecast for FY 2016 and FY 2017  
(
selected variables, state fiscal year basis)  
Forecast for  
Forecast for  
FY 2016 as of  
FY 2017 as of  
Variable Name (National)  
U.S. real GDP growth  
May  
January  
2016  
May  
January  
2016  
2
015  
2015  
3.0%  
4.9%  
5.1%  
2.4%  
1.4%  
5.0%  
2.3%  
4.8%  
3.9%  
0.7%  
1.7%  
5.2%  
2.2%  
4.9%  
4.4%  
0.5%  
1.9%  
5.0%  
3.0%  
5.1%  
4.5%  
2.1%  
1.5%  
4.9%  
U.S. wage & salary growth  
U.S. personal income growth  
U.S. CPI inflation  
U.S. nonfarm employment growth  
U.S. unemployment rate  
Forecast for  
FY 2016 as of  
May January  
2016  
Forecast for  
FY 2017 as of  
May January  
2016  
Variable Name (Ohio)  
Ohio real GDP growth  
2015  
1.9%  
4.3%  
3.6%  
1.2%  
5.0%  
2015  
2.4%  
4.2%  
4.3%  
1.0%  
4.9%  
1.5%  
4.3%  
3.9%  
1.3%  
4.5%  
2.5%  
4.5%  
4.1%  
1.0%  
4.6%  
Ohio wage & salary growth  
Ohio personal income growth  
Ohio nonfarm employment growth  
Ohio unemployment rate  
February 2016  
33  
Budget Footnotes