Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
GRF & MEDICAID VARIANCE SUMMARY  
As part of the unveiling of the executive budget for the next biennium, OBM adjusted downward its FY 2017 estimates  
by about $592 million for GRF tax revenue and by about $825 million for program expenditures. The monthly variance  
analyses, however, will continue to be based on OBM’s August 2016 estimates as the monthly estimates for the  
remaining months of FY 2017 were not revised.  
GRF tax revenue underperformed again in January. Year-to-date GRF tax revenue was $388.1 million below OBM’s  
August 2016 estimate and $173.9 million below FY 2016 year-to-date actual receipts.  
The personal income and sales and use taxes were $275.3 million and $120.2 million, respectively, below their  
year-to-date estimates.  
Medicaid expenditures and related federal reimbursements continue to remain well below OBM’s August 2016  
estimates. Year-to-date GRF Medicaid expenditures were $699.0 million below estimate and all-funds Medicaid  
expenditures were $979.5 million below estimate.  
GRF Sources  
GRF sources mainly consist of state tax revenue (63%) and federal grants (35%) but also include some state  
nontax revenue and transfers in.  
Tax Revenue  
$91.6 million  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF Sources  
-
-$191.1 million  
-19.7%  
-$234.4 million  
-7.4%  
January  
-
4.3%  
-
$388.1 million  
-2.9%  
-$317.9 million  
-2.4%  
-$845.7 million  
-4.1%  
Year-to-Date  
GRF Uses  
GRF uses mainly consist of various program expenditures (98%) but also include transfers out.  
GRF Medicaid  
Program Expenditures  
Total GRF Uses  
-
-
$294.4 million  
-$370.5 million  
-12.9%  
-$389.4 million  
-13.5%  
January  
-
20.2%  
$699.0 million  
-6.4%  
-$782.7 million  
-$813.6 million  
-3.7%  
Year-to-Date  
-
3.6%  
All-Funds Medicaid  
Both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.  
Non-GRF  
All-Funds Total  
ACA-Managed Care  
-
$0.3 million  
-$294.7 million  
-13.1%  
-$56.5 million  
-14.3%  
January  
-
0.03%  
-
$280.5 million  
-6.5%  
-$979.5 million  
-6.4%  
-$185.8 million  
-7.3%  
Year-to-Date  
Key: An up arrow indicates a positive variance (i.e., the amount by which actual is above estimate) while  
a down arrow indicates a negative variance.  
The full edition of LSC monthly Budget Footnotes may be accessed at:  
http://www.lsc.ohio.gov/fiscal/bfn/default.htm.  
February 2017