Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
GRF & MEDICAID VARIANCE SUMMARY  
GRF tax revenue underperformed again in February. Year-to-date GRF tax revenue was $411.7 million  
below OBM’s August 2016 estimate and $57.7 million below FY 2016 year-to-date actual receipts.  
The personal income and sales and use taxes were $352.2 million and $120.4 million, respectively,  
below their year-to-date estimates.  
Medicaid expenditures and related federal reimbursements continue to remain well below OBM’s  
August 2016 estimates. Year-to-date GRF Medicaid expenditures were $794.2 million below estimate and  
federal grants into the GRF were $572.6 million below estimate.  
The GRF will meet OBM’s latest (January 2017) target for FY 2017 if GRF tax revenue’s negative variance for  
the full fiscal year is no greater than $592 million while GRF spending’s negative variance for the full fiscal  
year is no smaller than $825 million.  
GRF Sources  
GRF sources mainly consist of state tax revenue (63%) and federal grants (35%) but also include some state  
nontax revenue and transfers in.  
Tax Revenue  
$23.5 million  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF Sources  
-
-$44.7 million  
-4.1%  
-$65.4 million  
-2.5%  
February  
-
1.5%  
-
$411.7 million  
-2.8%  
-$572.6 million  
-6.7%  
-$911.2 million  
-3.9%  
Year-to-Date  
GRF Uses  
GRF uses mainly consist of various program expenditures (98%) but also include transfers out.  
GRF Medicaid  
Program Expenditures  
Total GRF Uses  
-
$95.2 million  
-$115.2 million  
-4.0%  
-$110.6 million  
-3.8%  
February  
-
5.8%  
-
$794.2 million  
-6.3%  
-$897.9 million  
-$924.2 million  
-3.7%  
Year-to-Date  
-
3.7%  
All-Funds Medicaid  
Both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.  
Non-GRF  
All-Funds Total  
ACA-Managed Care  
$
288.6 million  
$193.4 million  
7.9%  
-$38.1 million  
-9.6%  
February  
36.6%  
$
8.1 million  
-$786.1 million  
-4.4%  
-$223.9 million  
-7.6%  
Year-to-Date  
0.2%  
Key: An up arrow indicates a positive variance (i.e., the amount by which actual is above estimate) while  
a down arrow indicates a negative variance.  
The full edition of LSC monthly Budget Footnotes may be accessed at:  
http://www.lsc.ohio.gov/fiscal/bfn/default.htm.  
March 2017