Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
GRF & MEDICAID VARIANCE SUMMARY  
October 2017  
GRF tax revenue exceeded OBM’s estimate by $17.4 million for the first quarter of FY 2018 and also exceeded actual  
receipts in the first quarter of FY 2017 by $16.4 million. All three major taxes have outperformed their year-to-date (YTD)  
estimates. The underperformances in some smaller taxes partially offset the positive variances in the three major taxes.  
The sales and use tax was above the September and YTD estimates by $15.3 million and $6.7 million, respectively;  
September’s personal income tax receipts were $18.2 million below estimate; however, this tax’s YTD receipts were  
$
16.5 million above estimate;  
The commercial activity tax was above the September and YTD estimates by $1.8 million and $9.3 million,  
respectively.  
GRF program expenditures as a whole were $82.7 million below the YTD estimate. YTD expenditures from all program  
categories except Medicaid were below estimates. GRF Medicaid expenditures were $5.5 million (0.1%) above  
estimate. However, all-funds Medicaid expenditures were below estimate by $117.9 million, continuing the recent  
trend of spending less in Medicaid than projected.  
GRF Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF Sources  
-
$6.2 million  
$28.7 million  
3.8%  
$40.6 million  
1.6%  
September  
FY 2018  
-
0.4%  
$17.4 million  
$28.9 million  
1.1%  
$82.3 million  
1.0%  
0.3%  
GRF Uses  
GRF Medicaid  
Program Expenditures  
Total GRF Uses  
$
9.5 million  
-$240.0 million  
-7.8%  
-$240.0 million  
-7.8%  
September  
FY 2018  
0.8%  
$5.5 million  
-$82.7 million  
-$70.2 million  
-0.8%  
-
0.9%  
0.1%  
All-Funds Medicaid  
Non-GRF  
All-Funds Total  
ACA - Managed Care  
-
$28.5 million  
2.2%  
-$19.1 million  
$1.8 million  
0.5%  
September  
FY 2018  
-
-0.8%  
-
$123.4 million  
4.0%  
-$117.9 million  
$3.1 million  
-
-1.6%  
0.3%  
Key: An up arrow indicates a positive variance (i.e., the amount by which actual is above estimate)  
while a down arrow indicates a negative variance.  
GRF sources mainly consist of state tax revenue (63%) and federal grants (35%) but also include some  
state nontax revenue and transfers in.  
GRF uses mainly consist of various program expenditures (98%) but also include transfers out.  
Both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.  
The full edition of LSC’s monthly Budget Footnotes may be accessed on LSC’s website: www.lsc.ohio.gov