Ohio Legislative Service Commission
GRF & MEDICAID VARIANCE SUMMARY
GRF tax revenue exceeded OBM’s estimate by $17.4 million for the first quarter of FY 2018 and also exceeded actual
receipts in the first quarter of FY 2017 by $16.4 million. All three major taxes have outperformed their year-to-date (YTD)
estimates. The underperformances in some smaller taxes partially offset the positive variances in the three major taxes.
The sales and use tax was above the September and YTD estimates by $15.3 million and $6.7 million, respectively;
September’s personal income tax receipts were $18.2 million below estimate; however, this tax’s YTD receipts were
16.5 million above estimate;
The commercial activity tax was above the September and YTD estimates by $1.8 million and $9.3 million,
GRF program expenditures as a whole were $82.7 million below the YTD estimate. YTD expenditures from all program
categories except Medicaid were below estimates. GRF Medicaid expenditures were $5.5 million (0.1%) above
estimate. However, all-funds Medicaid expenditures were below estimate by $117.9 million, continuing the recent
trend of spending less in Medicaid than projected.
Total GRF Sources
Total GRF Uses
ACA - Managed Care
Key: An up arrow indicates a positive variance (i.e., the amount by which actual is above estimate)
while a down arrow indicates a negative variance.
GRF sources mainly consist of state tax revenue (63%) and federal grants (35%) but also include some
state nontax revenue and transfers in.
GRF uses mainly consist of various program expenditures (98%) but also include transfers out.
Both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.
The full edition of LSC’s monthly Budget Footnotes may be accessed on LSC’s website: www.lsc.ohio.gov