Ohio Legislative Service Commission
GRF & MEDICAID VARIANCE SUMMARY
November 2017
GRF tax revenue came in very close to OBM’s estimate for the month of October, being
$3.3 million (0.2%) above the estimate. This pushed the year-to-date (YTD) positive variance to
$20.6 million. All three major GRF taxes – sales and use, personal income, and commercial
activity – have outperformed their YTD estimates, by $7.4 million, $16.4 million, and $21.5 million,
respectively.
GRF program expenditures as a whole were $120.3 million below the YTD estimate at the end of
October. YTD expenditures from all program categories except Property Tax Reimbursements
were below estimates. YTD Medicaid expenditures from both GRF and non-GRF sources were
below estimate. Total YTD Medicaid expenditures from all funds were below estimate by
$113.8 million, continuing the recent trend of spending less in Medicaid than projected.
GRF Sources
Tax Revenue
Federal Grants
Total GRF Sources
$
3.3 million
-$34.2 million
-3.9%
-$80.6 million
-3.0%
October
FY 2018
0.2%
$20.6 million
-$5.4 million
-0.2%
$1.7 million
0.0%
0.3%
GRF Uses
GRF Medicaid
Program Expenditures
Total GRF Uses
-
$13.9 million
1.0%
-$37.6 million
-1.2%
-$57.1 million
-1.8%
October
FY 2018
-
-
$8.3 million
-0.2%
-$120.3 million
-$127.4 million
-1.0%
-
1.0%
All-Funds Medicaid
Non-GRF
All-Funds Total
ACA - Managed Care
$
18.0 million
$4.1 million
0.2%
-$1.0 million
-0.3%
October
FY 2018
2
.0%
-
$105.4 million
2.7%
-$113.8 million
-1.2%
$2.1 million
0.2%
-
Key: An up arrow indicates a positive variance (i.e., the amount by which actual is above estimate)
while a down arrow indicates a negative variance.
GRF sources mainly consist of state tax revenue (63%) and federal grants (35%) but also include some
state nontax revenue and transfers in.
GRF uses mainly consist of various program expenditures (98%) but also include transfers out.
Both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.
The full edition of LSC’s monthly Budget Footnotes may be accessed on LSC’s website: www.lsc.ohio.gov.