Ohio Legislative Service Commission
GRF & MEDICAID VARIANCE SUMMARY
GRF tax revenue continued to come in very close to OBM’s estimate in November. The year-to-
date (YTD) positive variance in GRF tax revenue increased to $29.4 million (0.3%). All three major
GRF taxes – sales and use, personal income, and commercial activity – have outperformed their
YTD estimates, by $24.6 million, $28.1 million, and $10.1 million, respectively.
Total GRF sources were below estimate for the YTD by $76.4 million, largely due to a negative
variance of $85.3 million in federal grants, which is tied to lower than estimated GRF spending on
Led by this negative YTD variance in Medicaid spending, which totaled $129.8 million at the end
of November, GRF program expenditures as a whole were $220.2 million below the YTD estimate.
Total GRF Sources
Total GRF Uses
ACA - Managed Care
Key: An up arrow indicates a positive variance (i.e., the amount by which actual is above estimate)
while a down arrow indicates a negative variance.
GRF sources mainly consist of state tax revenue (63%) and federal grants (35%) but also include some
state nontax revenue and transfers in.
GRF uses mainly consist of various program expenditures (98%) but also include transfers out.
Both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.
The full edition of LSC’s monthly Budget Footnotes may be accessed on LSC’s website: www.lsc.ohio.gov.