Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
GRF & MEDICAID VARIANCE SUMMARY  
December 2017  
GRF tax revenue continued to come in very close to OBM’s estimate in November. The year-to-  
date (YTD) positive variance in GRF tax revenue increased to $29.4 million (0.3%). All three major  
GRF taxes sales and use, personal income, and commercial activity have outperformed their  
YTD estimates, by $24.6 million, $28.1 million, and $10.1 million, respectively.  
Total GRF sources were below estimate for the YTD by $76.4 million, largely due to a negative  
variance of $85.3 million in federal grants, which is tied to lower than estimated GRF spending on  
Medicaid.  
Led by this negative YTD variance in Medicaid spending, which totaled $129.8 million at the end  
of November, GRF program expenditures as a whole were $220.2 million below the YTD estimate.  
GRF Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF Sources  
$
8.7 million  
-$79.9 million  
-12.3%  
-$78.1 million  
-3.1%  
November  
FY 2018  
0.5%  
$29.4 million  
-$85.3 million  
-2.0%  
-$76.4 million  
-0.6%  
0.3%  
GRF Uses  
GRF Medicaid  
Program Expenditures  
Total GRF Uses  
-
$121.5 million  
12.8%  
-$99.9 million  
-4.5%  
-$89.6 million  
-4.0%  
November  
FY 2018  
-
-
$129.8 million  
-2.0%  
-$220.2 million  
-$216.9 million  
-1.5%  
-
1.5%  
All-Funds Medicaid  
Non-GRF  
Non-GRF  
All-Funds Total  
All-Funds Total  
ACA Managed Care  
ACA Managed Care  
August  
$15-$39.64.m9 imllioillnion  
13-.76%.3%  
$3-2$.198m.8ilmlioinllion  
1.-64%.0%  
-$5$.12.3mmilliilolinon  
-1.05.%4%  
November  
FY 2018  
FY 2018  
$4-8$.914m.9ilmlioilnlion  
0.-95%.4%  
-$8-$19.78.m8 imllioillnion  
-0.-72%.1%  
-$3$.11.3mmilliiollinon  
-0.20%.2%  
Key: An up arrow indicates a positive variance (i.e., the amount by which actual is above estimate)  
while a down arrow indicates a negative variance.  
GRF sources mainly consist of state tax revenue (63%) and federal grants (35%) but also include some  
state nontax revenue and transfers in.  
GRF uses mainly consist of various program expenditures (98%) but also include transfers out.  
Both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.  
The full edition of LSC’s monthly Budget Footnotes may be accessed on LSC’s website: www.lsc.ohio.gov.