Budget Footnotes  
A NEWSLETTER OF THE OHIO LEGISLATIVE SERVICE COMMISSION  
JANUARY 2018  
VOLUME 41, NUMBER 5  
STATUS OF THE GRF  
STATUS OF THE GRF  
Highlights...................................1  
Revenues ..................................2  
Expenditures............................13  
HIGHLIGHTS  
Ross A. Miller, Chief Economist, 614-644-7768  
ISSUE UPDATES  
GRF tax revenue closely tracked the estimate published  
in September by the Office of Budget and Management Medicaid Local Sales Tax  
Transition Payments.............21  
Medicaid Nurse Leadership  
Project..................................22  
Smoking Cessation in  
Franklin County ....................22  
Drug Court Access to  
OARRS.................................23  
Opioid Abuse, Prevention,  
and Treatment Grants ..........24  
Community School Sponsor  
Ratings .................................25  
(
OBM) through each of the first six months of FY 2018,  
ending the first half $17.5 million (0.2%) above estimate.  
December tax revenues were $11.9 million below estimate,  
however, and nontax revenue was $202.0 million below  
estimate for the month. Nontax revenue was expected to  
include a $200.0 million transfer in from unclaimed funds  
which was not made.  
Ohio's unemployment rate fell to 4.8% in November, College Credit Plus  
Program................................26  
Economic Development  
Compliance Report...............26  
018 State Fair  
down from its recent peak of 5.4% in August. The national  
unemployment rate was 4.1% in November.  
Through December 2017, GRF sources totaled $16.01 billion:  
2
Entertainment Budget...........27  
Revenue from the personal income tax was  
27.3 million above estimate;  
Sales and use tax receipts were $16.3 million above  
estimate.  
TRACKING THE ECONOMY  
$
The National Economy ............29  
The Ohio Economy..................32  
Through December 2017, GRF uses totaled $16.80 billion:  
Total program expenditures were $205.8 million  
below estimate during the first half of FY 2018;  
Medicaid spending was below estimate by  
Legislative Service Commission  
7
7 South High Street, 9th Floor  
Columbus, Ohio 43215  
$
136.1 million;  
All other program spending categories were also  
below estimate except for Primary and Secondary  
Education, which was $18.3 million above estimate.  
Telephone: 614-466-3615  
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE: WWW.LSC.OHIO.GOV  
CLICK ON 'BUDGET CENTRAL/BUDGET FOOTNOTES'  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 1: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of December 2017  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on January 2, 2018)  
STATE SOURCES  
TAX REVENUE  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
Auto Sales  
$105,444  
$809,737  
$915,181  
$105,700  
-$256  
-0.2%  
-1.0%  
-0.9%  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use Taxes  
$817,800  
-$8,063  
$923,500  
-$8,319  
Personal Income  
$788,612  
$9,439  
$70,693  
$22,595  
$1  
$789,400  
$10,600  
$76,400  
$23,100  
$100  
-$788  
-$1,161  
-$5,707  
-$505  
-$99  
-0.1%  
-11.0%  
-7.5%  
-2.2%  
-98.6%  
---  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
$0  
$0  
$0  
-$1,965  
$1,846  
$53  
-$5,100  
$500  
$3,135  
$1,346  
-$147  
-$152  
$246  
61.5%  
269.1%  
-73.6%  
-3.3%  
6.6%  
14.0%  
---  
Natural Gas Consumption (MCF)  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
$200  
$4,448  
$3,946  
$1,710  
$45  
$4,600  
$3,700  
$1,500  
$0  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$210  
$45  
$0  
$0  
$0  
---  
$14  
$0  
$14  
---  
Total Tax Revenue  
$1,816,618  
$1,828,500  
-$11,882  
-0.6%  
NONTAX REVENUE  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$23  
$352  
$0  
$610  
$23  
-$258  
---  
-42.2%  
-99.4%  
-99.2%  
$1,313  
$1,689  
$203,090  
$203,700  
-$201,777  
-$202,011  
Total Nontax Revenue  
TRANSFERS  
Budget Stabilization  
Other Transfers In  
Total Transfers In  
$0  
$17,625  
$17,625  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$17,625  
$17,625  
---  
---  
---  
TOTAL STATE SOURCES  
Federal Grants  
$1,835,931  
$872,884  
$2,032,200  
$855,476  
-$196,269  
$17,407  
-9.7%  
2.0%  
-6.2%  
TOTAL GRF SOURCES  
$2,708,815  
$2,887,676  
-$178,861  
*Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2017.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
January 2018  
2
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 2: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2018 as of December 31, 2017  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on January 2, 2018)  
Percent  
Change  
STATE SOURCES  
TAX REVENUE  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
FY 2017**  
Auto Sales  
$699,336  
$675,500  
$23,836  
3.5%  
$689,237  
1.5%  
-5.1%  
-4.3%  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
$4,405,251 $4,412,800  
-$7,549  
-0.2% $4,642,461  
Total Sales and Use Taxes  
$5,104,587 $5,088,300  
$16,287  
0.3% $5,331,698  
Personal Income  
$4,148,803 $4,121,500  
$27,303  
$8,944  
-$4,553  
-$11,218  
-$10,656  
-$2,937  
-$10,339  
$1,665  
-$839  
0.7% $3,987,894  
4.0%  
17.8%  
-4.1%  
-7.9%  
-10.1%  
17.5%  
-64.8%  
16.8%  
-1.0%  
-3.6%  
3.5%  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
$729,044  
$420,847  
$168,282  
$144,844  
$63  
$720,100  
$425,400  
$179,500  
$155,500  
$3,000  
-$14,700  
$53,900  
$17,600  
$30,000  
$23,000  
$2,800  
$0  
1.2%  
-1.1%  
-6.2%  
-6.9%  
-97.9%  
-70.3%  
3.1%  
-4.8%  
-1.2%  
4.5%  
17.1%  
---  
$618,715  
$438,905  
$182,706  
$161,032  
$53  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
-$25,039  
$55,565  
$16,761  
$29,626  
$24,034  
$3,280  
-$15,191  
$47,555  
$16,929  
$30,731  
$23,231  
$2,860  
Natural Gas Consumption (MCF)  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
-$374  
$1,034  
$480  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
14.7%  
$2,938  
$2,938  
-$374  
-$265 1206.7%  
-$374  
$0  
---  
-$678  
$457  
44.8%  
-75.1%  
0.0%  
$114  
$0  
$114  
---  
Total Tax Revenue  
$10,823,372 $10,805,900  
$17,472  
0.2% $10,826,630  
NONTAX REVENUE  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$15,841  
$8,970  
$15,000  
$10,795  
$841  
-$1,825  
5.6%  
-16.9%  
-88.0%  
-80.4%  
$14,199  
$12,014  
$52,887  
$79,100  
11.6%  
-25.3%  
-40.9%  
-29.1%  
$31,282  
$56,092  
$260,980  
$286,775  
-$229,698  
-$230,683  
Total Nontax Revenue  
TRANSFERS  
Budget Stabilization  
Other Transfers In  
Total Transfers In  
$0  
$129,269  
$129,269  
$0  
$103,429  
$103,429  
$0  
$25,840  
$25,840  
---  
25.0%  
25.0%  
$0  
$32,102  
$32,102  
---  
302.7%  
302.7%  
TOTAL STATE SOURCES  
Federal Grants  
$11,008,734 $11,196,104  
$5,004,627 $5,072,472  
$16,013,361 $16,268,576  
-$187,370  
-$67,845  
-$255,216  
-1.7% $10,937,832  
-1.3% $6,147,200  
-1.6% $17,085,032  
0.6%  
-18.6%  
-6.3%  
TOTAL GRF SOURCES  
*Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of September 2017.  
**Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2017.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
January 2018  
3
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
1
REVENUES  
Jean J. Botomogno, Principal Economist, 614-644-7758  
Overview  
Poor performance of GRF sources in December 2017 increased the  
cumulative FY 2018 negative variance to $255.2 million (1.6%) relative to Through  
OBM's estimates published in September 2017. At the end of November,  
the year-to-date shortfall was $76.4 million (0.6%). Through December,  
negative variances of $230.7 million for nontax revenue and $67.8 million  
for federal grants were partially offset by positive variances of  
December in  
FY 2018, GRF  
sources were  
$
17.5 million for GRF tax sources and $25.8 million for transfers into the $255.2 million  
GRF. GRF taxes and federal grants are expected to make up about 68%  
and 30%, respectively, of anticipated GRF sources for FY 2018. The latter  
mainly consists of federal reimbursements for Medicaid expenditures  
made from state GRF moneys. Tables 1 and 2 show GRF sources for  
December and for FY 2018 through December, respectively.  
below  
estimate.  
In the month of December 2017, total GRF sources of $2.71 billion  
were $178.9 million below estimate, from shortfalls of $202.0 million in  
nontax revenue and $11.9 million for GRF tax sources. A scheduled  
December transfer of $200.0 million from the state Unclaimed Funds  
In the first half  
(
Fund 5430) to the GRF was not made by the end of the month, thus of FY 2018,  
creating the large shortfall for nontax revenue. Those negative variances  
were partially offset by positive variances of $17.4 million for federal  
grants and $17.6 million for transfers in. Regarding GRF tax sources, the  
largest tax sources were below estimates: the sales and use tax, the  
cigarette tax, the commercial activity tax (CAT), and the personal income  
tax (PIT) were short of their respective targets by $8.3 million,  
GRF tax  
sources were  
above  
estimate by  
$
17.5 million.  
$
5.7 million, $1.2 million, and $0.8 million. On the other hand, the  
financial institution tax (FIT) and the public utility tax were above  
estimate by $3.1 million and $1.3 million, respectively.  
1 This report compares actual monthly and year-to-date GRF revenue  
sources to OBM's estimates. If actual receipts were higher than estimate, that  
GRF source is deemed to have a positive variance. Alternatively, a GRF source is  
deemed to have a negative variance if actual receipts were lower than estimate.  
January 2018  
4
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
For the fiscal year through December, revenue from the corporate  
2
franchise tax (CFT) totaled $2.9 million, and the following taxes were  
above estimates: the PIT ($27.3 million), the sales and use tax  
($16.3 million), the CAT ($8.9 million), the public utility tax ($1.7 million),  
and the liquor gallonage tax ($1.0 million). These positive variances were  
partially offset by a combined shortfall of $13.6 million for the two  
insurance taxes and negative variances of $11.2 million for the  
3
kilowatt-hour tax, $10.3 million for the FIT, and $4.6 million for the  
cigarette tax. The remaining taxes had smaller variances. The chart below  
illustrates the cumulative performance of total GRF sources in the  
fiscal year.  
Chart 1: Cumulative Variances of GRF Sources in FY 2018  
(
Variance from Estimates, in millions)  
$
100  
50  
$
$
0
Jul-17  
Aug-17  
Sep-17  
Oct-17  
Nov-17  
Dec-17  
-$50  
-$100  
-$150  
-$200  
-$250  
-$300  
Through  
Federal Grants  
Tax Revenue  
Total GRF Sources  
December,  
Year-to-date GRF sources were $1.07 billion (6.3%) below GRF federal grants  
sources through December in FY 2017. Federal grants fell $1.14 billion  
to the GRF  
18.6%), nontax revenue declined $23.0 million (29.1%), and GRF tax  
were  
(
sources dropped $3.3 million (0.0%). These decreases were partially offset  
by an increase of $97.2 million (302.7%) in transfers into the GRF.  
$
1.14 billion  
less than in  
FY 2017.  
2 Though GRF receipts were not anticipated from the CFT in FY 2018  
because H.B. 510 of the 129th General Assembly eliminated the tax at the end of  
(
2
revenue and continued to affect GRF revenue over the years.  
013), adjustments to tax filings in previous years have resulted in nonzero  
3 The GRF typically pays out refunds under the FIT during the first half of  
a fiscal year as taxpayers make adjustments to previous tax filings. Receipts of  
the FIT are typically expected at the end of January, March, and May.  
January 2018  
5
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
As explained in previous editions of this publication, federal grants to  
the GRF will decline from FY 2017 as an important source of Medicaid  
funding has shifted from the GRF to a dedicated purpose fund. More  
spending for the Medicaid program would be made from non-GRF funds  
this fiscal year, and the GRF will thus experience lower federal  
reimbursements in FY 2018. For tax sources, revenue grew for the PIT  
($160.9 million, 4.0%), the CAT ($110.3 million, 17.8%), the public utility tax  
($8.0 million, 16.8%) and the CFT ($3.2 million, 1206.7%). On the other hand,  
revenue declined for the sales and use tax ($227.1 million, 4.3%), the cigarette  
tax ($18.1 million, 4.1%), the foreign insurance tax ($16.2 million, 10.1%), the  
kilowatt-hour tax ($14.4 million, 7.9%), and the FIT ($9.8 million, 64.8%). The  
revenue increase for the PIT is due, in large part, to continued growth in  
payroll employment and wages. The increase in CAT receipts was due in  
part to an increase in the share of CAT revenue allocated to the GRF enacted  
in H.B. 49, the budget act for the current biennium, while the decline in sales  
tax revenue resulted from a policy change that decreased the nonauto sales  
and use tax base, as explained in the following section. The decrease in FIT  
receipts is due to increased refunds this fiscal year relative to FY 2017.  
Sales and Use Tax  
Through December in FY 2018, total GRF sales and use tax receipts of  
$5.10 billion were $16.3 million (0.3%) above estimate, but $227.1 million  
(4.3%) below receipts in the corresponding period last year. Revenue from  
the auto sales tax generally has been more than expected throughout the  
fiscal year. The nonauto portion of the tax, which had been generally weaker  
than expected, was below projected receipts through December 2017. For the  
month of December, sales and use tax revenue totaled $915.2 million. That Through  
amount lagged estimates by $8.3 million (0.9%), with both the auto and  
nonauto sales taxes below expected revenues. Monthly sales and use tax  
revenue was also $57.0 million (5.9%) below receipts in December 2016.  
December in  
FY 2018, the  
sales and use  
tax was above  
estimate by  
For analysis and forecasting, the sales and use tax is separated into  
two parts: auto and nonauto. Auto sales and use tax collections generally  
arise from the sale of motor vehicles, but auto taxes arising from leases are  
paid at the lease signing and are mostly recorded under the nonauto tax  
instead of the auto tax.4  
$
16.3 million.  
4 Taxes arising from leases are paid immediately upon the lease signing.  
The clerks of court generally make auto sales and use tax payments on Mondays  
for taxes collected during the preceding week on motor vehicles, watercraft, and  
outboard motors titled. Therefore, auto sales and use tax receipts mostly, but not  
perfectly, reflect vehicles sold and titled during the month.  
January 2018  
6
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Nonauto Sales and Use Tax  
First-half nonauto sales and use tax revenue to the GRF totaling  
4.41 billion was $7.5 million (0.2%) below estimate. The monthly  
$
performance of the nonauto sales and use tax has been uneven this fiscal  
year, with an equal number of monthly positive and negative variances.  
At the end of the first quarter of FY 2018, nonauto sales and use tax  
receipts were $6.7 million above estimate. The tax was below estimate in  
October, then above anticipated revenues the following month, resulting  
in a cumulative positive variance of $0.5 million through November 2017.  
However, in December, nonauto sales and use tax revenue to the GRF of  
$
809.7 million fell below estimate by $8.1 million (1.0%), leading to the  
Through  
first-half negative variance of $7.5 million. December 2017 revenue was  
also $55.5 million (6.4%) below receipts in the same month last year.  
December in  
FY 2018, the  
nonauto sales  
and use tax  
was  
Chart 2: Nonauto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year (with tax base adjustment)  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
.0%  
.5%  
.0%  
.5%  
.0%  
.5%  
.0%  
.5%  
.0%  
.5%  
.0%  
$
7.5 million  
below  
estimate.  
For the fiscal year through December, GRF receipts from this tax  
were $237.2 million (5.1%) below revenue in the corresponding period in  
FY 2017, due to a change in law that reduced the taxable base. Starting  
July 1, 2017, H.B. 49 replaced the sales tax on Medicaid health insuring  
corporations (MHICs) with a provider assessment on both Medicaid and  
non-Medicaid managed care companies, with proceeds deposited in a  
non-GRF fund. Sales tax revenue attributable to MHICs had grown to be  
a sufficiently large portion of nonauto sales tax revenue overall by  
FY 2017, that declines in revenue from this tax source are generally  
expected this year when compared to the corresponding months in  
FY 2017. Monthly revenue growth on a year-ago basis, after adjusting for  
January 2018  
7
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
the decrease in the tax base described above, has improved in the latest  
5
months, as shown in Chart 2 above.  
Auto Sales and Use Tax  
The auto portion of the sales and use tax was above expectations in  
in the first half of FY 2018. Total revenue of $699.3 million was  
$
23.8 million (3.5%) above estimate. However, in December, GRF revenue  
from the auto sales tax of $105.4 million was below estimate by  
0.3 million (0.2%), and $1.5 million (1.4%) below revenue in the  
corresponding month in FY 2017. First-half receipts from the tax were also  
10.1 million (1.5%) above revenue in the first six months in FY 2017.  
Chart 3 provides year-over-year growth in auto sales tax collections in  
$
$
2
017 and shows growth has been declining in the most recent months.  
Chart 3: Auto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
Through  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
December in  
FY 2018, the  
auto sales and  
use tax was  
8
6
4
2
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
$
23.8 million  
above  
estimate.  
U.S. December new light vehicle (auto and light truck) sales  
posted a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 17.8 million units, but  
vehicle sales for the month were lower for the tenth time in 2017. With  
2
017 in the books, light vehicle sales totaled 17.1 million units, down  
about 2% from 2016 and recording the first year-over-year decline since  
009. With an increase over 2016 of about 4%, light trucks continued  
2
their persistent trend higher and reached a record of almost 65% of total  
sales, while sales of passenger cars dropped by about 11% relative to  
5 Please note that to adjust for changes to the existing tax base, this chart  
excludes monthly revenue from MHICs starting in August 2016 in FY 2017 so  
that changes in nonauto sales and use tax revenue are on a comparable basis.  
January 2018  
8
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
their 2016 level. The average price of light trucks, a category that  
includes SUVs, is higher than the average price of automobiles, so the  
high share of light truck models in unit sales supports tax revenue,  
despite the decline in unit sales. Thus, the performance of the auto sales  
tax for the next six months is likely to depend heavily on the future  
PIT GRF  
revenue was  
trajectory of light truck sales, as most analysts forecast a continued $27.3 million  
decline in total unit sales.  
above  
Personal Income Tax  
estimate in  
For the year to date, total PIT GRF revenue of $4.15 billion was FY 2018  
$
27.3 million (0.7%) above estimate and $160.9 million (4.0%) above  
through  
receipts in the first half of FY 2017. PIT revenue is comprised of gross  
collections, minus refunds and distributions to the Local Government  
Fund (LGF). Gross collections consist of employer withholdings,  
December.  
6
quarterly estimated payments, trust payments, payments associated  
with annual returns, and other miscellaneous payments. The  
performance of the tax is typically driven by employer withholdings,  
which is the largest component of gross collections, and to a lesser  
extent, the amount of refunds to taxpayers.  
December GRF revenue from the PIT of $788.6 million was  
$
0.8 million (0.1%) below estimate, but $7.8 million (1.0%) above receipts  
in December 2016. Gross collections for the month were $12.7 million  
1.5%) above estimate, but refunds were higher than projected for the  
(
third consecutive month, this time by $13.1 million (42.9%). On the other  
hand, quarterly estimated payments were strong, $25.4 million (29.0%)  
above estimate (and were also $27.1 million above their level in  
December 2016). That positive variance was partially offset by deficits of  
Revenue  
growth from  
monthly  
$
11.3 million (1.5%) and $2.5 million (26.5%), respectively, for employer  
employer  
withholding and taxes due with annual returns. FY 2018 revenues from  
each component of the PIT relative to estimates and to revenue received  
in FY 2017 are detailed in the table below.  
withholding is  
improving.  
6 Quarterly estimated payments are made by taxpayers who expect to be  
underwithheld by more than $500. Payments are due in April, June, and  
September of an individual's tax year and January of the following year. Most  
estimated payments are made by high-income taxpayers.  
January 2018  
9
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
FY 2018 Personal Income Tax Revenue  
Estimate Variances and Year-over-Year Changes by Component  
Variance  
Changes  
from Estimate  
from FY 2017  
Category  
Amount  
$ in millions)  
Percentage  
(%)  
Amount  
($ in millions)  
Percentage  
(%)  
(
Withholding  
$47.9  
$32.6  
$2.5  
1.1%  
11.1%  
21.5%  
-15.9%  
55.8%  
1.8%  
$165.2  
$40.4  
$2.0  
4.1%  
14.2%  
16.5%  
-15.9%  
60.6%  
4.7%  
Quarterly Estimated Payments  
Trust Payments  
Annual Return Payments  
Miscellaneous Payments  
Gross Collections  
-$14.0  
$15.8  
$84.9  
$56.1  
$1.5  
-$14.0  
$16.7  
$210.3  
$47.2  
$2.2  
Less Refunds  
19.3%  
0.8%  
15.7%  
1.2%  
Less LGF Distribution  
GRF PIT Revenue  
$27.3  
0.7%  
$160.9  
4.0%  
PIT trends in the earlier months of FY 2018 continued. Except  
annual return payments, components of gross collections exceeded  
estimates through December, and refunds were larger than anticipated  
in the first six months of the fiscal year.  
Compared to corresponding receipts in FY 2017 through  
December, receipts from employer withholding, quarterly estimated  
payments, and miscellaneous payments were higher in FY 2018, but  
payments with annual returns were below such payments last year.  
Refunds were also higher than in the corresponding period in FY 2017.  
The chart below illustrates the growth of monthly employer  
withholdings on a three-month moving average relative to one year ago.  
It shows revenue growth from employer withholding, which was  
negative for the month of September, rose in the last quarter of 2017.  
Chart 4: Monthly Withholding Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
January 2018  
10  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Commercial Activity Tax  
FY 2018 first-half CAT revenue to the GRF of $729.0 million was  
above estimate despite underperforming in the latest two months. In  
November, the tax was $11.4 million (3.6%) below projected revenue;  
December receipts of $9.4 million were $1.2 million (11.0%) below  
estimate. This performance reduced the CAT's year-to-date positive  
variance to $8.9 million (1.2%) through December, down from  
FY 2018 CAT  
GRF tax  
receipts  
through  
December  
were  
$
10.1 million through November.  
FY 2018 CAT receipts through December were also $110.3 million  
(17.8%) above receipts in the corresponding period in FY 2017 through  
$8.9 million  
December 2016. This strong growth was due in part to the change in  
allocation of revenue enacted in H.B. 49. Yearly gross collections increased  
by $49.9 million (5.6%) relative to collections in FY 2017 through  
December. However, CAT refunds also increased by $17.9 million (34.1%).  
above  
estimate.  
H.B. 49 increased the share of CAT revenue credited to the GRF from  
75% to 85% beginning July 1, 2017, and decreased the shares allocated to  
reimburse school districts from 20% to 13% (Fund 7047) and to other local  
taxing units from 5% to 2% (Fund 7081) for their loss of tangible personal  
property tax revenues. While the allocation change increases the amount of  
CAT receipts directly credited to the GRF, it reduces "excess" CAT receipts  
that are transferred back to the GRF. Under continuing law, CAT receipts  
deposited into Fund 7081 and Fund 7047 are used to make reimbursement  
payments to school districts and other local taxing units, respectively, for  
the phase out of property taxes on general business tangible personal  
property. Any receipts in excess of amounts needed for such payments are  
transferred back to the GRF. In other words, the CAT allocation change has  
no net effect on its total contribution to the GRF.  
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Tax  
Through December in FY 2018, GRF cigarette and other tobacco  
products tax revenue of $420.8 million was $4.6 million (1.1%) below  
estimate. This revenue included $387.1 million and $33.7 million,  
FY 2018  
cigarette tax  
respectively, from sales of cigarettes and sales of other tobacco products. receipts were  
December tax revenue of $70.7 million was $5.7 million (7.5%) below  
$4.6 million  
estimate. Strong November revenue had the tax above estimate the  
previous month by $1.2 million for the fiscal year through November.  
FY 2018 revenue was also $18.1 million (4.1%) below collections in the  
below  
estimate  
corresponding period in FY 2017. Receipts from cigarette sales fell through  
$
$
20.1 million (5.2%) while those from other tobacco products grew  
2.1 million (6.6%). Revenue from the cigarette and other tobacco products  
December.  
tax usually trends downward, generally at a slow pace.  
January 2018  
11  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Other Taxes  
The kilowatt-hour tax generated $168.3 million during the first six  
months of the fiscal year. This was $11.2 million (6.2%) below estimate,  
and $14.4 million (7.9%) lower than revenue during the comparable  
months of FY 2017. The tax base generally is kilowatt-hours of electricity  
used, i.e., it generally does not depend on the price of electricity. Half of  
the allocation of GRF tax revenue to the Public Library Fund is debited  
against this tax for accounting purposes, thus good GRF tax revenue  
performance overall makes this tax look bad. The bulk of the negative  
variance, however, is likely due in part to cooler than expected summer  
and autumn months, which may have decreased household use of air  
conditioning.  
Year to date, revenue from the public utility tax to the GRF was  
$
$
55.6 million, an amount $1.7 million (3.1%) above estimate, and  
8.0 million (16.8%) above receipts in the first half of FY 2017. About 95%  
of the revenue from this tax comes from natural gas utilities, so the  
performance of this tax is likely to improve from the cold stretch  
experienced in recent weeks: the impact on revenue from the January use  
(
and much of the December use) of gas for heating would be felt in fourth  
quarter of this fiscal year.  
The foreign insurance tax generated $144.8 million during the first  
half of FY 2018, $10.7 million (6.9%) below estimate, and $16.2 million  
10.1%) below receipts in the corresponding period in FY 2017. This tax is  
(
paid by insurance companies headquartered in other states, based on  
premiums they receive to provide insurance covering risks located in  
Ohio. The revenue experience so far this year, though negative, reveals  
little about the full fiscal year experience from the tax: payments received  
so far represent advance payments based on previous year tax liabilities  
before credits. Similarly, a negative variance of $2.9 million for the  
domestic insurance tax (paid by insurance companies headquartered in  
Ohio) says little about the full year experience: virtually all revenue from  
the tax is received in May and June each fiscal year. Revenue from the  
foreign insurance tax was weak largely because $24.0 million in refunds  
were paid so far in FY 2018, which likely means taxpayers were claiming  
an unexpectedly large amount of credits against the tax.  
January 2018  
12  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 3: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of December 2017  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run January 10, 2018)  
PROGRAM  
Actual  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$614,293 $615,483 -0.2%  
-$1,190  
$218,748 $186,147 $32,601 17.5%  
Other Education  
$4,428  
$4,410  
$19  
0.4%  
Total Education  
$837,470 $806,040 $31,430  
3.9%  
Medicaid  
$1,294,801 $1,301,138  
$104,138 $96,518  
-$6,337  
$7,620  
$1,283  
-0.5%  
7.9%  
0.1%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Welfare and Human Services$1,398,938 $1,397,656  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$207,110 $209,101  
$30,521 $35,487  
$237,631 $244,588  
-$1,991  
-1.0%  
-$4,966 -14.0%  
-$6,956 -2.8%  
Total Government Operations  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$41,698  
$16,034  
$57,732  
$52,767 -$11,069 -21.0%  
$16,358 -$324 -2.0%  
$69,125 -$11,393 -16.5%  
Total Other Expenditures  
Total Program Expenditures  
TRANSFERS  
$2,531,771 $2,517,408 $14,363  
0.6%  
Budget Stabilization  
Other Transfers Out  
Total Transfers Out  
$0  
$229  
$229  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$229  
$229  
---  
---  
---  
TOTAL GRF USES  
$2,532,000 $2,517,408 $14,591  
0.6%  
*September 2017 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
January 2018  
13  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 4: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2018 as of December 31, 2017  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run January 10, 2018)  
Percent  
Estimate* Variance Percent FY 2017** Change  
PROGRAM  
Actual  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$4,143,826 $4,125,559 $18,267  
0.4% $4,083,012  
-0.7% $1,145,504  
1.5%  
0.3%  
-9.5%  
1.1%  
$1,149,269 $1,157,628  
$41,908 $42,310  
$5,335,002 $5,325,496  
-$8,359  
-$402  
Other Education  
-1.0% $46,299  
0.2% $5,274,814  
Total Education  
$9,506  
Medicaid  
$7,624,963 $7,761,110 -$136,147  
$654,805 $685,799 -$30,994  
-1.8% $9,110,179 -16.3%  
-4.5% $673,799 -2.8%  
-2.0% $9,783,978 -15.4%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Welfare and Human Services $8,279,768 $8,446,909 -$167,141  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$1,123,579 $1,153,153 -$29,575  
$189,479 $203,608 -$14,129  
$1,313,058 $1,356,761 -$43,704  
-2.6% $1,108,123  
-6.9% $198,523  
-3.2% $1,306,646  
1.4%  
-4.6%  
0.5%  
Total Government Operations  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$906,420  
$897,879  
$907,392  
$901,408  
-$972  
-$3,528  
-$4,500  
-0.1%  
-0.4%  
$900,987  
$907,140  
0.6%  
-1.0%  
-0.2%  
Total Other Expenditures  
$1,804,300 $1,808,800  
-0.2% $1,808,128  
Total Program Expenditures  
TRANSFERS  
$16,732,127 $16,937,966 -$205,839  
-1.2% $18,173,566  
-7.9%  
Budget Stabilization  
Other Transfers Out  
Total Transfers Out  
$0  
$69,001  
$69,001  
$0  
$65,514  
$65,514  
$0  
$3,487  
$3,487  
---  
5.3%  
5.3%  
$29,483 -100.0%  
$238,587 -71.1%  
$268,070 -74.3%  
TOTAL GRF USES  
$16,801,128 $17,003,480 -$202,352  
-1.2% $18,441,635  
-8.9%  
*September 2017 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
**Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2017.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
January 2018  
14  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5: Medicaid Expenditures by Department  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on January 8, 2018)  
Month of December 2017  
Year to Date Through December 2017  
Department  
Medicaid  
Actual  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
-$71,018  
Percent  
-0.6%  
$1,893,245 $1,956,324  
-$63,079  
-$5,161  
-$57,918  
$30,853  
-$2,277  
$33,130  
$552  
-3.2%  
-0.4%  
-8.1%  
14.1%  
-4.5%  
19.8%  
2.8%  
$12,115,144 $12,186,162  
GRF  
$1,238,662 $1,243,824  
$7,272,990  
$4,842,155  
$1,358,273  
$300,996  
$1,057,277  
$129,995  
$45,722  
$84,273  
$13,612  
$2,026  
$11,586  
$2,223  
$1,250  
$972  
$7,409,109 -$136,119  
-1.8%  
1.4%  
Non-GRF  
$654,582  
$249,014  
$48,432  
$200,582  
$20,420  
$6,737  
$13,683  
$3,974  
$412  
$712,500  
$218,160  
$50,709  
$167,452  
$19,867  
$5,713  
$14,154  
$1,798  
$375  
$4,777,053  
$1,391,666  
$301,333  
$1,090,333  
$134,196  
$45,673  
$88,523  
$13,994  
$1,864  
$12,130  
$2,601  
$1,250  
$1,351  
$3,823  
$1,790  
$2,033  
$1,561  
$0  
$65,101  
-$33,393  
-$337  
-$33,056  
-$4,201  
$49  
Developmental Disabilities  
-2.4%  
-0.1%  
-3.0%  
-3.1%  
0.1%  
GRF  
Non-GRF  
Job and Family Services  
GRF  
$1,024  
-$471  
17.9%  
-3.3%  
121.0%  
9.7%  
Non-GRF  
-$4,250  
-$382  
$163  
-4.8%  
-2.7%  
8.7%  
Health  
$2,176  
$36  
GRF  
Non-GRF  
$3,562  
$344  
$1,423  
$508  
$2,140  
-$164  
150.4%  
-32.4%  
5.8%  
-$544  
-$378  
$0  
-4.5%  
-14.5%  
0.0%  
Mental Health and Addiction  
GRF  
$128  
$121  
$7  
Non-GRF  
Aging  
$215  
$387  
-$171  
-44.4%  
-25.2%  
8.4%  
-$378  
-$932  
-$4  
-28.0%  
-24.4%  
-0.2%  
-45.7%  
-5.2%  
$565  
$755  
-$190  
$2,891  
$1,786  
$1,105  
$1,480  
$0  
GRF  
$415  
$383  
$32  
Non-GRF  
Pharmacy Board  
GRF  
$150  
$372  
-$222  
-59.8%  
-$928  
-$81  
$1,221  
$0  
$54  
$1,167 2168.8%  
$0 --  
$1,167 2168.8%  
$0  
$0  
--  
Non-GRF  
Education  
GRF  
$1,221  
$14  
$54  
$1,480  
$200  
$1,561  
$177  
-$81  
-5.2%  
13.3%  
$25  
-$11  
-43.3%  
$24  
$14  
$12  
$2  
13.3%  
$193  
$91  
$102  
111.8%  
-91.0%  
Non-GRF  
$0  
$12  
-$12 -100.0%  
$8  
$86  
-$78  
Total GRF  
$1,294,801 $1,301,138  
$873,995 $896,353  
$2,168,796 $2,197,491  
-$6,337  
-0.5%  
-2.5%  
-1.3%  
$7,624,963  
$5,998,855  
$7,761,110 -$136,147  
$5,973,069 $25,785  
-1.8%  
0.4%  
-0.8%  
Total Non-GRF  
Total All Funds  
-$22,358  
-$28,695  
$13,623,818 $13,734,179 -$110,361  
*Estimates are from the Department of Medicaid.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
January 2018  
15  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6: All-Funds Medicaid Expenditures by Payment Category  
Actual vs. Estimate  
$ in thousands)  
Actuals based on OAKS report run on January 8, 2018)  
(
(
Month of December 2017  
Year to Date Through December 2017  
Payment Category  
Managed Care  
Actual  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Actual  
Estimate*  
$5,552,704  
$2,056,078  
$1,344,650  
$1,323,655  
$732,651  
$597,135  
$590,745  
$527,554  
$303,439  
$244,595  
$187,386  
$205,193  
$68,393  
Variance  
$1,061  
Percent  
0.0%  
$909,762  
$338,612  
$235,786  
$148,532  
$126,318  
$81,923  
$96,863  
$75,924  
$51,185  
$38,041  
$24,361  
$31,984  
$9,504  
$918,015  
$341,998  
$212,206  
-$8,253  
-$3,385  
$23,580  
-0.9%  
-1.0%  
11.1%  
-21.9%  
5.5%  
$5,553,766  
$2,049,616  
$1,314,277  
$1,306,409  
$766,366  
$566,010  
$620,480  
$477,169  
$304,994  
$237,340  
$164,858  
$199,135  
$63,400  
ACA - Managed Care  
DDD Services  
-$6,462  
-$30,373  
-$17,246  
$33,714  
-$31,126  
$29,735  
-$50,385  
$1,555  
-0.3%  
-2.3%  
-1.3%  
4.6%  
Hospitals  
$190,246 -$41,714  
Nursing Facilities  
Physicians/All Other  
Behavioral Health  
Administration  
$119,699  
$85,068  
$87,143  
$82,336  
$51,064  
$39,661  
$27,850  
$31,841  
$10,364  
$6,620  
-$3,145  
$9,721  
-$6,412  
$121  
-3.7%  
11.2%  
-7.8%  
0.2%  
-5.2%  
5.0%  
-9.6%  
0.5%  
Medicare Buy-In  
Medicare Part D  
Prescription Drugs  
Aging Waivers  
-$1,621  
-$3,489  
$143  
-4.1%  
-12.5%  
0.4%  
-$7,255  
-3.0%  
-12.0%  
-3.0%  
-7.3%  
-0.8%  
-$22,528  
-$6,059  
Home Care Waivers  
Total All Funds  
-$861  
-8.3%  
-1.3%  
-$4,993  
$2,168,796 $2,197,491 -$28,695  
$13,623,818 $13,734,179  
-$110,361  
*
Estimates are fromthe Department of Medicaid.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
January 2018  
16  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
7
EXPENDITURES  
Russ Keller, Senior Economist, 614-644-1751  
Charles Dobson, Economist, 614-466-1523  
Overview  
For the month of December, GRF uses were $14.6 million (0.6%)  
above the estimate released by OBM in September 2017. GRF uses mainly  
consist of program expenditures but also include transfers out. Through  
For the first  
December, FY 2018 GRF uses totaled $16.80 billion, $202.4 million (1.2%) half of  
below estimate. GRF program expenditures were $16.73 billion,  
FY 2018, GRF  
uses were  
$
205.8 million (1.2%) below the year-to-date estimate. This negative  
variance was partially offset by a positive year-to-date variance of  
$
3.5 million (5.3%) in transfers out, which totaled $69.0 million through  
202.4 million  
$
December. Tables 3 and 4 show GRF uses for the month of December and below  
for FY 2018 through December, respectively.  
estimate.  
GRF Medicaid expenditures were $136.1 million (1.8%) below the  
year-to-date estimate. Year-to-date expenditures from the Health and  
Human Services and Justice and Public Protection program categories  
were also below estimates, by $31.0 million (4.5%) and $29.6 million  
(2.6%), respectively. Together, these three program categories accounted  
for 95.6% ($196.7 million) of the total negative year-to-date variance in  
GRF program expenditures.  
The entire negative year-to-date variance in the Health and Human  
Services program category occurred in months prior to December; this  
category's December expenditures were $7.6 million (7.9%) above  
estimate. The Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS)  
contributed the largest amount ($25.7 million, 82.9%) to the category's  
total negative year-to-date variance.  
The majority of the Justice and Public Protection program  
category's negative year-to-date variance also occurred in months prior to  
December; this category's December expenditures were $2.0 million (1.0%)  
below estimate. The Department of Rehabilitation and Correction (DRC)  
contributed the largest amount ($22.5 million, 76.2%) to the category's  
total negative year-to-date variance.  
7
This report compares actual monthly and year-to-date expenditures  
from the GRF to OBM's estimates of those expenditures. If a program category's  
actual expenditures were higher than estimate, that program category is deemed  
to have a positive variance. The program category is deemed to have a negative  
variance when its actual expenditures were lower than estimate.  
January 2018  
17  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
For additional information on the negative variances in the Health  
and Human Services and Justice and Public Protection program  
categories, please refer to the November and December issues of Budget  
Footnotes. The remainder of this report will discuss in more detail the  
variances in Medicaid expenditures.  
Medicaid  
Medicaid is mainly funded by the GRF but is also supported by  
several non-GRF funds. As indicated earlier, GRF Medicaid expenditures  
were $136.1 million (1.8%) below the estimate for the first half of FY 2018.  
This negative variance was partially offset by a positive year-to-date  
variance of $25.8 million (0.4%) in non-GRF Medicaid expenditures.  
Including both the GRF and non-GRF, all-funds Medicaid expenditures  
were $110.4 million (0.8%) below the year-to-date estimate.  
For the first six  
months of  
FY 2018, GRF  
Table 5 shows GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures for the Medicaid  
Ohio Department of Medicaid (ODM), the Ohio Department of  
expenditures  
Developmental Disabilities (ODODD), and six other "sister" agencies that  
also take part in administering Ohio Medicaid. ODM and ODODD  
account for about 99% of the total Medicaid budget. The other six  
were  
136.1 million  
$
agencies Job and Family Services, Health, Aging, Mental Health and below  
Addiction Services, State Board of Pharmacy, and Education account for  
estimate while  
the remaining 1%. Unlike ODM and ODODD, the six "sister" agencies  
incur only administrative spending.  
non-GRF  
Medicaid  
As can be seen from Table 5, almost the entire amount of the  
negative year-to-date variance in GRF Medicaid expenditures can be  
expenditures  
attributable to ODM. ODM's non-GRF Medicaid expenditures, however, were  
were $65.1 million (1.4%) above estimate. This positive variance was  
partially offset by a negative year-to-date variance of $33.1 million (3.0%)  
in non-GRF Medicaid expenditures from ODODD. Across all funds,  
expenditures from ODM and ODODD were $71.0 million (0.6%) and  
$
25.8 million  
above  
estimate.  
$
33.4 million (2.4%), respectively, below their year-to-date estimates.  
Medicaid is a joint federal-state program. Both GRF and non-GRF  
Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state dollars. Federal  
reimbursements for Medicaid expenditures made from the state GRF are  
deposited into the GRF as revenue to help support the GRF  
appropriations for Medicaid. Federal reimbursements for Medicaid  
expenditures made from state non-GRF funds are deposited into various  
non-GRF funds for expenditures. In recent years, the federal government  
has reimbursed about two-thirds of Ohio's total Medicaid expenditures.  
January 2018  
18  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6 shows all-funds Medicaid expenditures by payment  
category. Expenditures from Managed Care and ACA-Managed Care, the  
two largest payment categories, were close to estimates with expenditures  
being $1.1 million (0.0%) above and $6.5 million (0.3%) below estimates,  
respectively. Overall, more than 80% of Ohioans enrolled in Medicaid  
Expenditures  
from Managed  
receive services through managed care. The ACA-Managed Care category Care and ACA-  
tracks managed care expenditures for individuals who became eligible for  
Medicaid through the federal Affordable Care Act.  
Managed  
Care, the two  
largest  
50.4 million (9.6%). Of this amount, approximately $41.0 million is  
payment  
Administration had the largest negative year-to-date variance at  
$
attributed to ODM and the remaining $9.4 million is attributed to the  
other Medicaid agencies. ODM's negative variance was due partly to prior categories,  
fiscal year contracts that have not yet been paid and partly to  
caseload-driven contracts requiring lower payments to vendors than  
anticipated.  
were largely in  
line with  
estimates.  
The Physicians/All Other category had the second largest negative  
year-to-date variance at $31.1 million (5.2%), due partially to lower than  
estimated caseload for home health services.  
The third largest negative year-to-date variance can be attributable  
to services provided by ODODD (labeled "DDD Services" in the table).  
Year-to-date expenditures from ODODD were below estimate by  
$
30.4 million (2.3%). This variance was primarily due to lower than  
expected expenditures for targeted case management services and timing  
issues related to ODODD waiver claims.  
Due largely to lower than estimated per-member per-month  
prescription drug costs for the Aged, Blind, and Disabled (ABD)  
population, the Prescription Drugs payment category registered the fourth  
largest negative year-to-date variance of $22.5 million (12.0%).  
Another payment category with a notable negative year-to-date  
variance is Hospitals. As indicated in the prior issue of Budget Footnotes,  
ODM made a $50 million Hospital Upper Payment Limit (UPL) payment  
in November, one month earlier than assumed in the estimate, which led  
to a positive year-to-date variance of $24.5 million at the end of November  
for this category. December expenditures from the Hospitals payment  
category were $41.7 million below estimate, which changed the category's  
year-to-date variance to a negative $17.2 million (1.3%) at the end of  
December. This variance was largely due to lower than estimated  
per-member per-month hospital service costs for the ABD and  
dual-eligible (individuals eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare)  
populations.  
January 2018  
19  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
On the other hand, both caseload and per-member per-month costs  
for Nursing Facilities have been higher than projected. As a result, this  
payment category's expenditures had the largest positive year-to-date  
variance at $33.7 million (4.6%).  
The Behavioral Health payment category had the second largest  
positive year-to-date variance at $29.7 million (5.0%), of which $9.7 million  
occurred in the month of December. The category's positive variance was  
largely due to higher than anticipated per-member permonth behavioral  
health service costs for the ABD population. Another contributing factor  
may be that providers submitted behavioral health claims at a faster pace  
than normal in anticipation of the implementation of the Behavioral  
Health Redesign on January 1, 2018. At this stage of the redesign, the goal  
is to modernize behavioral health service packages. The next goal is the  
integration of behavioral health into Medicaid Managed Care, which is  
anticipated to occur on July 1, 2018.  
January 2018  
20  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
ISSUE UPDATES  
First Medicaid Local Sales Tax Transition Payments Distributed in October  
-
Philip A. Cummins, Senior Economist, 614-387-1687  
The Department of Taxation distributed the first round of Medicaid local sales tax  
transition payments, totaling about $103.4 million, to counties and local transit authorities  
in October. H.B. 49 appropriated $207 million in transition payments to help these units  
of local government adjust to the revenue loss due to the repeal of the sales tax on  
Medicaid managed care companies, effective July 1, 2017. The second round of payments  
is to be paid in January 2018. The total amount to be paid to each county and transit  
authority from the two rounds combined is listed in Section 387.20 of H.B. 49, ranging  
from a low of $35,327 to Holmes County to a high of $25 million to Cuyahoga County.  
The amounts were selected based on two criteria: (1) an amount to hold harmless each  
county or transit authority for calendar year (CY) 2017 by providing a quarter-year's  
reimbursement based on the average amount of sales tax revenue each county or transit  
authority received during 2015 and 2016 plus (2) a supplemental amount that is based on  
each county's capacity for absorbing the sales tax revenue loss. Total sales tax revenue  
from Medicaid managed care companies distributed to counties and transit authorities  
during CY 2016, the last full year of such revenue, was $209.3 million.  
The recently enacted H.B. 69 increases transition payments to counties and  
transit authorities by up to $80 million. Of this total, $50 million is to be paid between  
January 1 and February 1, 2018, and up to $30 million, contingent upon the amount of  
surplus GRF revenue at the end of FY 2018, is to be paid between August 1 and  
September 1, 2018. Unlike the allocations of the $207 million transition payments,  
H.B. 69 does not specify the actual allocations of the additional payments for individual  
counties and transit authorities. Instead, it specifies an average annual Medicaid sales  
tax revenue amount for each county and transit authority. The up to $80 million  
additional payments will be allocated based on each county's or transit authority's  
proportionate share of the total average annual Medicaid sales tax revenue.  
All transition payments for counties and transit authorities will be made from the  
Medicaid Local Sales Tax Transition Fund (Fund 7104). H.B. 49 created this fund and  
authorized cash transfers into the fund from two sources to fund the payments: up to  
$
$
200 million from the Health and Human Services Fund (Fund 5SA4) and up to  
207 million of unclaimed funds administered by the Department of Commerce. In  
August, $200 million cash was transferred from Fund 5SA4 into Fund 7104. H.B. 69  
directs up to $30 million in FY 2018 GRF surplus revenue to be transferred into  
Fund 7104 for transition payments in FY 2019.  
January 2018  
21  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Nurse Leadership Project Launched in January  
-
Charles Dobson, Economist, 614-466-1523  
On January 1, 2018, a three-year Nurse Leadership Project was launched to  
increase staff engagement and retention at nursing facilities with the goal of improving  
both quality of life and continuity of care for nursing home residents. Project  
participation is limited to facilities that have 100 to 130 residents and a turnover rate in  
nursing staff of over 30%. Each qualifying facility may send one registered nurse with at  
least two years of experience in long-term care to participate in the project. The project  
anticipates training a total of 72 nurse leaders across the state. Each participating nurse  
is required to mentor at least one additional nurse.  
The project will provide leadership training sessions, core knowledge courses,  
and personal mentor relationships for participants. It is designed to address issues such  
as effective communication, accountability, delegation, and mentorship between nurses  
in leadership positions and direct care staff. Specific project goals include: a 5% decrease  
in the direct care staff turnover rate for the first year with additional 1% decreases for  
the following two years and a 7% increase in resident and family satisfaction scores in  
the first year followed by 2% increases in subsequent years.  
The federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) approved approximately  
1 million in funding for the project. The funding comes from civil monetary penalties  
$
imposed on nursing facilities that do not meet federal health and safety standards.  
States are required to use these grant funds to improve residents' outcomes in Medicaid,  
or Medicare, certified nursing homes. The Ohio Department of Medicaid recommended  
the project to CMS and will receive quarterly progress reports and a final report that  
evaluates project outcomes and results.  
ODH Awards Franklin County $1.6 million for Smoking Cessation  
-
Jacquelyn Schroeder, Budget Analyst, 614-466-3279  
On November 16, 2017, the Ohio Department of Health (ODH) awarded Franklin  
County Public Health (FCPH) a three-year grant totaling approximately $1.6 million for  
the Community Cessation Initiative. The goal of the initiative is to increase the number  
of Franklin County residents that attempt to quit smoking by 15%. FCPH will partner  
with the following local organizations to implement the initiative: the Columbus  
Metropolitan Housing Authority, Columbus Public Health, Healthcare Collaborative of  
Greater Columbus, Kirwin Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, Ohio  
Association of Community Health Centers, and The Breathing Association. These  
organizations will identify gaps in existing service delivery and outreach efforts and  
adopt interventions targeting pregnant women, individuals with mental illness, and  
low-income individuals. A referral system will also be created to refer individuals to  
January 2018  
22  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
cessation services and to follow-up care to manage relapses. Each partner organization  
will have a different focus. For example, Columbus Public Health will provide smoking  
cessation programs for pregnant women, while the Columbus Metropolitan Housing  
Authority will help residents in federally funded public housing attempt to quit in  
preparation for a smoke-free policy that goes into effect in 2018. Another initiative goal  
will be to gather data on the number of insurance plans that deny cessation services and  
to work with those insurance companies to change noncoverage policies.  
According to data from ODH, the current tobacco use rate in Franklin County for  
adults aged 18 and older is 18.7%, while the rate for the state is 21.0%. The national rate  
is currently 18.1%. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has set a national  
target rate of 12.0% for adult tobacco use by 2020. The current juvenile (12 to 17 years of  
age) rate for Franklin County is 7.6%. The state and national juvenile rates are 9.3% and  
7
.5%, respectively.  
Ohio Drug Courts Gain Access to  
Prescription Drug Monitoring System  
-
Robert Meeker, Budget Analyst, 614-466-3839  
Beginning on November 7, 2017, judges and designated employees of certified  
specialized docket courts for drugs have gained access to the Ohio Automated Rx  
Reporting System (OARRS). Established in 2006 and maintained by the State Board of  
Pharmacy, OARRS collects information on controlled prescription drugs dispensed by  
pharmacies or furnished by prescribers to Ohio patients to help address prescription  
drug abuse, misuse, and diversion. H.B. 49 requires the Pharmacy Board to provide  
information requested by a judge of a certified drug court relating to a current or  
prospective participant of a drug court program. Certified drug courts often also  
include other specialized docket programs, including mental health courts, veterans  
courts, OVI/DUI courts, and family dependency courts, where a program participant is  
being treated for a substance abuse disorder. Information accessed through OARRS is  
expected to benefit case management for specialized docket courts. As of November  
2
017, there were 236 specialized docket courts in the state.  
The expansion of OARRS to the courts is funded through a two-year, $399,365  
8
federal grant that was awarded to the Pharmacy Board in September 2016. Prior to  
expanding access to specialized docket courts, there were approximately 76,000 OARRS  
users: 54,720 prescribers or prescriber delegates (72%), 16,720 pharmacists (22%), and  
4
,560 law enforcement organizations (6%). Just under 16.5 million reports were  
requested in 2016.  
8 See the December 2016 issue of Budget Footnotes for additional details on this federal grant.  
January 2018  
23  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Ohio Third Frontier Commission Awards  
Opioid Technology Grants  
-
Tom Middleton, Senior Budget Analyst, 614-728-4813  
On December 7, 2017, the Development Services Agency (DSA) announced the  
award of just under $10.0 million in grants to seven entities to advance new technology  
that combats drug abuse and addiction across the state. The grants were approved  
under the Ohio Third Frontier Commission's Ohio Opioid Abuse, Prevention, and  
Treatment Technology Initiative. This initiative aims to accelerate the development and  
commercialization of new products in the categories of medical devices, diagnostics,  
pharmaceuticals, and health technology to address the opioid crisis facing Ohio. The  
recipients and the amounts awarded are summarized in the table below.  
Ohio Opioid Abuse, Prevention, and Treatment Technology Awards  
Entity  
Location  
Danville, California  
Columbus  
Akron  
Grant Amount  
$2,989,159  
$2,000,000  
$2,000,000  
$1,500,000  
$860,678  
Elysium Therapeutics, Inc.  
Sollis Therapeutics  
University of Akron  
Cordata Healthcare Innovations  
DeUmbra, Inc.  
Cincinnati  
Austin, Texas  
Cleveland  
Lyndhurst  
Sober First LLC dba Ascent  
Innovative Medical Equipment  
$464,000  
$177,000  
Total  
$9,990,837  
The Ohio Opioid Abuse, Prevention, and Treatment Technology Initiative is one  
part of a two-pronged, $20.0 million strategy to combat opioid addiction throughout the  
state. The other prong, launched in October 2017, is the Ohio Opioid Technology  
Challenge, which will use up to $8.0 million in Third Frontier funding to be awarded as  
prizes for prevention, treatment, and overdose solutions that reduce morbidity and  
mortality associated with opioid use and addiction. The innovation consulting firm  
NineSigma, Inc., will manage the Ohio Opioid Technology Challenge on behalf of the  
Ohio Third Frontier Commission. The first challenge awards are expected in early 2018.  
All research and development initiatives under the Third Frontier Program are funded  
from the proceeds of general obligation (GO) bonds issued by the state.  
January 2018  
24  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
ODE Releases Community School Sponsor Evaluations  
for the 2016-2017 School Year  
-
Robert Moore, Budget Analyst, 614-466-4280  
On November 15, 2017, the Ohio Department of Education (ODE) released  
community school sponsor evaluations for the 2016-2017 school year. Of the  
5 community school sponsors evaluated, 24 (53.3%) received an overall rating of either  
4
"
"
effective" (21, 46.7%) or "exemplary" (3, 6.7%) and 21 (46.7%) were rated either  
ineffective" (13, 28.9%) or "poor" (8, 17.8%). The chart below illustrates the number of  
sponsors receiving each rating for the 2016-2017 school year. On the whole, community  
school sponsor ratings improved from the 2015-2016 school year, when over 92% of  
sponsors were rated either ineffective or poor.  
The overall rating is comprised of three equally weighted components that  
receive their own individual ratings: (1) academic performance of students enrolled in  
schools sponsored by the entity, (2) compliance with rules and laws, and (3) adherence  
to quality practices, such as performance contracting, evaluation, termination and  
renewal decision making, and technical assistance to community schools.  
Community School Sponsor Ratings, 2016-2017 School Year  
2
2
1
1
5
0
5
0
5
0
2
1
1
3
8
3
Poor  
Ineffective  
Effective  
Exemplary  
Overall Sponsor Rating  
Sponsors that receive an overall rating of exemplary for two consecutive years  
may take advantage of certain incentives, including longer contract terms with ODE, an  
unlimited number of schools the entity may sponsor, and no territorial restrictions on  
sponsorship. Sponsors rated ineffective may not sponsor additional schools, while those  
that receive a poor rating or three consecutive ineffective ratings have their sponsorship  
authority revoked, subject to an available appeals process. The overall number of  
sponsors evaluated dropped from 65 in the 2015-2016 school year to 45 in the 2016-2017  
school year. Nearly all of the entities that are no longer sponsoring schools had their  
sponsorship authority revoked due to poor ratings.  
January 2018  
25  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Over 68,000 Students Participate in  
College Credit Plus Program in FY 2017  
-
Alexandra Vitale, Budget Analyst, 614-466-6582  
On November 20, 2017, the Ohio Department of Higher Education (ODHE)  
announced that over 68,000 high school students participated in the College Credit Plus  
CCP) Program in FY 2017, a 26% increase from the approximately 54,000 students who  
(
took CCP classes in FY 2016. More than 90% of participants passed their CCP courses in  
FY 2017 and, thus, received college credit. According to ODHE, 44% of participating  
students were seniors, 28% were juniors, and 14% were freshmen and sophomores. The  
remaining participants were home school or private school students for which a grade  
level was not reported (13%) or were in 7th or 8th grade (1%). Most participants took  
one or two college courses through the program.  
The CCP Program, which replaced the former Post-Secondary Enrollment  
Options Program (PSEO) starting in FY 2016, allows qualified public, nonpublic, and  
home instructed students in grades 7-12 to take college courses for both college and  
high school credit. Under CCP, funding for public students is deducted from the state  
aid allocated to the educating district or school. Funding for nonpublic and home  
instructed students is paid directly by the state through certain GRF and non-GRF  
appropriations. Overall, the amount paid to colleges under the program increased from  
$
37.9 million in FY 2016 to $44.8 million in FY 2017, according to the latest available  
figures from ODE. Additional details on the CCP Program are available on ODHE's  
website at: http://www.ohiohighered.org/ccp.  
Attorney General Releases Economic  
Development Compliance Report  
-
Jessica Murphy, Budget Analyst, 614-466-9108  
On December 1, 2017, the Ohio Attorney General's Office released its latest  
9
Economic Development Compliance Report, a required annual review of recipient  
compliance with the terms and conditions of state awards for economic development  
administered by DSA. For purposes of this review, DSA economic development awards  
are grouped into four categories: workforce training grants, project grants, tax credits,  
and project loans.  
9 The full report is available at: http://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Publications-  
Files/Publications-for-Business/2017-Economic-Development-Accountability-Report.  
January 2018  
26  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
The latest report examined 272 awards with a performance period ending in  
CY 2016. Of those recipients, 213 were determined to be substantially compliant, having  
met at least 90% of the performance metrics set forth in their agreement, with an overall  
compliance rate of 78.3%. The remaining 59 recipients were determined to be  
noncompliant. The report also indicates each award category's compliance rate:  
workforce training grants (100%), project grants (89.4%), tax credits (68.1%), and project  
loans (63.8%). Furthermore, the report provides information on remedial actions taken  
by DSA, which includes seeking grant reimbursements totaling $519,000 from seven  
recipients, reducing the tax credit term or rate for 19 recipients, and increasing the loan  
interest rate for 13 recipients.  
The table below shows the compliance rates reported in the 2013-2016 reviews.  
As seen from the table, the decrease in the 2016 overall compliance rate was due entirely  
to the compliance rate decreases in tax credit and project loan award categories. After  
showing steady increases from the 2013 to 2015 reviews, the tax credit awards'  
compliance rate decreased from 80.0% for 2015 to 68.1% for 2016 while the compliance  
rate for the project loan award category dropped from 82.8% to 63.8% during the same  
period. In contrast, all workforce training grant awards have met at least 90% of their  
performance metrics over the last four years. The project grant award compliance rate  
continued to increase, from 86.3% in 2015 to 89.4% in 2016.  
Economic Development Award Recipient Compliance Rates, 2013-2016  
Award Category  
Workforce Training Grant  
Project Grant  
2013  
100.0%  
74.4%  
62.4%  
57.1%  
70.6%  
2014  
100.0%  
76.3%  
73.4%  
81.3%  
78.9%  
2015  
100.0%  
86.3%  
80.0%  
82.8%  
84.8%  
2016  
100.0%  
89.4%  
68.1%  
63.8%  
78.3%  
Tax Credit  
Project Loan  
Overall  
Controlling Board Approves $2.8 million  
Entertainment Budget for the 2018 Ohio State Fair  
-
Shannon Pleiman, Budget Analyst, 614-466-1154  
On December 18, 2017, the Controlling Board approved the Ohio Expositions  
Commission's proposed budget of approximately $2.8 million to enter into entertainment  
and related contracts for the 2018 Ohio State Fair. This is an increase of 27.2% over the  
$
2
2.2 million spent on entertainment during the 2017 Ohio State Fair. Of the approved  
018 budget, about $2.3 million (82.1%) will be for entertainment contracts for name acts,  
back-up bands, free on-grounds entertainment, and related expenses. The remaining  
amount of just over $0.5 million (17.9%) will go toward contracts for entertainment  
support (stage hands, sound, lighting, etc.) and other special entertainment events.  
January 2018  
27  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Controlling Board approval of the entertainment budget for the 2018 Ohio State  
Fair allows for the Expositions Commission to negotiate and sign contracts with  
popular entertainers and acts before they are booked at other venues. The contracts will  
be paid using FY 2019 appropriations. The Ohio Expositions Commission has an  
FY 2019 budget of just under $16.0 million. Of that total, just over $15.2 million is  
funded by anticipated revenues from the Ohio State Fair and approximately 175 other  
events held on the state fairgrounds throughout the year.  
January 2018  
28  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
TRACKING THE  
ECONOMY  
Philip A. Cummins, Senior Economist, 614-728-1687  
Ruhaiza Ridzwan, Senior Economist, 614-387-0476  
Total nonfarm  
payroll  
Overview  
Most economic indicators point to further expansion.  
employment  
in the U.S.  
Inflation-adjusted U.S. gross domestic product (real GDP) growth picked  
up in last year's second and third quarters, and real GDP growth  
continued in the fourth quarter based on monthly data. Employment rose  
through December and the nation's average unemployment rate remained  
at 4.1%, a 17-year low. Short-term federal fiscal stimulus was recently  
enacted, monetary policy remains supportive of economic growth, and  
growth in foreign economies adds to demand for U.S. exports. Ohio's  
economy also continues to grow though less rapidly than that of the  
nation. Inflation in 2017 was up from 2015 lows but remains well  
contained.  
rose 148,000  
in December  
to 2.1 million  
higher than a  
year earlier.  
The National Economy  
Total nonfarm payroll employment in the U.S. rose 148,000 in  
December to 2.1 million higher than a year earlier. Nationwide average  
unemployment held at 4.1% of the labor force in December for the third  
straight month. Trends in U.S. employment and the unemployment rate  
are shown in Chart 5.  
Chart 5: U.S. Employment and Unemployment  
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
48  
45  
42  
39  
36  
33  
30  
27  
11.0%  
10.0%  
9.0%  
8.0%  
7.0%  
6.0%  
5.0%  
4.0%  
2
007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017  
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate (right scale)  
January 2018  
29  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
The employment increase in the latest month trailed average  
monthly gains earlier in the year, but the increase in the  
October-December quarter was largest since the 2016 third quarter.  
Among industries, job increases in December were reported in health  
care, construction, and manufacturing. For the year, the increase in total  
nonfarm payrolls nearly matched that in 2016, when 2.2 million jobs were  
added. Annual employment increases were larger earlier in the recovery  
from the severe 2007-2009 recession. In the 12 months of 2017, significant  
increases in employment were reported in mining, construction, and  
manufacturing, and in various private service-providing industries.  
Hourly wage increases of nonfarm employees on private payrolls  
averaged 2.5% in 2017, down from 2.9% in 2016 but within the range in  
which year-over-year pay gains have fluctuated since late 2015.  
The nation's  
average  
unemployment  
rate in  
The nation's average unemployment rate in October through October  
December was the lowest in 17 years. Unemployment, at 6.6 million  
persons, was down from 7.5 million a year earlier. Of those without jobs  
and actively looking for work in December, 1.5 million had been  
unemployed for more than six months.  
through  
December was  
the lowest in  
7 years.  
1
The nation's real GDP rose at a 3.2% annual rate in the 2017 third  
quarter, revised downward slightly in the U.S. Bureau of Economic  
Analysis' (BEA's) latest estimate. This broad measure of the economy  
grew at a 3.1% rate in the second quarter, following slower growth since  
the first quarter of 2015. The pickup in growth reflects strengthening in  
nonresidential fixed investment and exports, along with continued  
growth of consumer spending. On the other hand, residential fixed  
investment fell in the latest two quarters, chiefly due to lower spending  
for brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and slowing  
in the pace of improvements to existing structures.  
Fourth quarter data through November show continued growth of  
business spending on equipment and an upturn in growth of real  
consumer spending. In December, unit sales of light motor vehicles  
strengthened. Weakness in residential fixed investment may be reversed  
in the fourth quarter as used home sales rose in November to the highest  
seasonally adjusted rate in nearly 11 years, according to the National  
Association of Realtors. New home unit sales in the month were at the  
highest rate in over ten years, and new housing units under construction  
rose sharply in October and November.  
Industrial and manufacturing production expanded in the fourth  
quarter through November. The industrial production index rose 0.2% in  
November, after increasing 1.2% in October, and was 3.4% higher in  
November than a year earlier. Manufacturing production rose 1.4% in  
January 2018  
30  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
October and 0.2% in November. Factory output growth continued in  
December, according to purchasing managers surveyed.1  
0
The consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.4% from October to  
November, and was 2.2% higher in November than a year earlier. Most of The consumer  
the increase in the latest month was due to higher energy costs. Excluding  
food and energy, the CPI rose 0.1% in November to 1.7% above a year  
ago. A related inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures  
deflator, was 1.8% higher for the month from a year earlier, and 1.5%  
higher excluding food and energy.  
price index  
was 2.2%  
higher in  
November  
than a year  
earlier.  
Recently enacted federal tax legislation is expected to boost  
economic activity in 2018 by putting more purchasing power in the  
hands of workers through lower withholding, and by enhancing  
expected after-tax returns on prospective business investments, making  
1
1
marginal projects more attractive. The legislation lowers tax rates for  
individuals and businesses and makes numerous other changes.  
Congress' Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that increases in labor  
supply and in investment in response to these incentives will boost GDP  
by 0.8% to 0.9% for most of the next ten years, relative to a baseline  
forecast, with the increase falling to 0.1% to 0.2% toward the end of the  
ten-year projection.  
Following its December meeting, the Federal Open Market  
Committee, the monetary policy-setting group within the central bank,  
raised its short-term market interest rate target by 0.25 percentage point to  
a range of 1.25% to 1.5%.1 The interest rate target has been raised five  
times, in quarter-point increments, starting in December 2015, after  
holding near zero for seven years. Almost all committee members expect  
to increase their short-term interest rate target next year, with the median  
forecast for an increase of 0.75 percentage point.  
2
10 Survey results cited are from the Institute for Supply Management.  
1
1
This paragraph is based in part on Joint Committee on Taxation,  
"Macroeconomic Analysis of the Conference Agreement for H.R. 1, the 'Tax Cuts  
and Jobs Act'" published December 22, 2017, JCX-69-17.  
12 The target is specified in terms of federal funds, which are unsecured,  
mostly overnight loans of dollar reserves held with the Federal Reserve and  
traded in an interbank over-the-counter market.  
January 2018  
31  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
The Ohio Economy  
In November, Ohio's economy experienced reduced payroll  
employment, but the state unemployment rate dropped to 4.8% from  
5
5
number of unemployed Ohioans was 279,000 in November, a decrease of Ohio's  
.1% in October.13 In November 2016, Ohio's unemployment rate was  
.0%. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1% in November 2017. The  
In November,  
1
6
the state's payroll employment and unemployment rate over the last  
11 years.  
7,000 from October. The number of unemployed Ohioans decreased by  
,000 compared to November of last year. Chart 6 below shows trends in  
unemployment  
rate dropped  
to 4.8%.  
Chart 6: Ohio Employment and Unemployment Rates  
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
.6  
.5  
.4  
.3  
.2  
.1  
.0  
.9  
11.0%  
10.0%  
9.0%  
8.0%  
7.0%  
6.0%  
5.0%  
4.0%  
2
007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017  
Nonfarm Payroll Employment  
Unemployment Rate (right scale)  
The state's total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted,  
declined by 5,600 (-0.1%) in November from the revised total in October,  
following a decrease of 1,200 jobs in October. Employment gains in  
goods-producing industries (+2,300) were more than offset by job losses in  
private service-providing industries (-5,600) and government  
employment (-2,300). Gains primarily occurred in financial activities and  
manufacturing; job losses were primarily in trade, transportation, and  
utilities, and in professional and business services.  
13 Statistics on unemployment rates are based on a survey of households,  
while payroll employment is based on a survey of business establishments. In  
addition to unemployment, the household survey-based estimates include  
employment and the labor force. Employment on this basis increased from  
October to November, exhibiting a divergence from the establishment  
survey-based estimate. Such a divergence is not unusual, though in most months  
the two employment measures move in the same direction.  
January 2018  
32  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
Compared to a year ago, total nonfarm payroll employment  
increased by 38,600, or 0.7%. During the same period, total nonfarm  
payrolls nationwide grew 1.4%. The increase in Ohio's total nonfarm  
payroll employment was largely in educational and health services  
Compared to a  
year ago,  
(+14,500), leisure and hospitality (+12,300), financial activities (+9,500),  
construction (+5,700), and nondurable goods manufacturing (+4,700). Job  
losses were primarily in government (-9,700). In the 12 months ending in Ohio's total  
November 2017, Ohio's total nonfarm payroll employment growth was  
slightly lower than the year-over-year increase in the previous year.  
nonfarm  
payroll  
Ohio's personal income rose 0.8% in the third quarter of 2017,  
following 0.2% growth in the second quarter, according to BEA estimates.  
Personal income growth also accelerated in the third quarter in 31 other  
employment  
increased by  
states and the District of Columbia. Nationwide, average state personal 38,600, or  
income rose 0.7% in the third quarter of 2017, up from 0.6% in the second  
quarter. Personal income growth in Ohio and most other states was  
accounted for mainly by higher net earnings. The leading contributors to  
Ohio's personal income growth in the third quarter were increased  
earnings in the healthcare and social assistance industry, construction,  
wholesale trade, and the finance and insurance industry.  
0
.7%.  
Between July 1, 2016, and July 1, 2017, Ohio's total population  
increased from 11.62 million to 11.66 million, an increase of 36,055 or  
0
.3%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's estimates released on  
December 20, 2017. In comparison, the U.S. total population grew by 0.7%  
during the same period. Between July 1, 2016, and July 1, 2017, total births  
in the state outnumbered deaths by 22,458. Migration of people into the  
state exceeded migration out of state by 13,926 as new Ohio residents  
from foreign countries totaled 22,131, partly offset by domestic net  
outmigration of 8,205. Ohio ranked 32nd out of all 50 states and the  
District of Columbia in terms of percentage population change, but  
ranked 18th in terms of total population change. Nationwide, Idaho was  
the fastest growing state (2.2%). Ohio remained the nation's seventh most  
populous state with 3.6% of the nation's population while California  
remained the most populous state.  
In 2017, more Ohioans continued to move out of the state than  
residents of other states moved to Ohio, according to the United Van  
Lines' 41st Annual National Movers study. The study tracks United Van  
Lines customers' state-to-state migration patterns within the  
4
8 contiguous states and the District of Columbia over the past year. The  
main reasons for Ohioans who moved out of the state were for a job and  
retirement while proximity to family was the primary factor for residents  
of other states to move to Ohio. In 2017, Ohio ranked seventh in terms of  
January 2018  
33  
Budget Footnotes  
Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
the percentage of moves that were out of the state (56%), while Illinois  
had the highest percentage of moves out of the state (63%). The top  
destination state for the percentage of inbound moves for residents of  
other states in 2017 was Vermont (68%).  
Between  
July 1, 2016,  
and  
In November, the number of existing home sales in Ohio increased  
by 4.1% compared to November 2016, according to the Ohio Association  
of Realtors. The average statewide sales price of homes sold in November July 1, 2017,  
was $174,689, an increase of 7.7% over the year. From January through  
November 2017, existing home sales increased by 1.1% compared to the  
corresponding period in 2016. The statewide sales price of homes sold  
during the first 11 months of 2017 averaged $173,032, or 5.5% higher than  
Ohio's total  
population  
increased  
during the corresponding months in 2016.  
0.3%.  
January 2018  
34  
Budget Footnotes