Ohio Legislative Service Commission  
GRF & MEDICAID VARIANCE SUMMARY  
February 2018  
The personal income tax had a strong month in January; it exceeded estimate by $222.6 million (24.9%). As  
a result, this tax’s positive year-to-date (YTD) variance increased to $249.9 million (5.0%). The commercial  
activity tax’s positive YTD variance also increased by $13.0 million in January to $22.0 million (2.8%).  
The sales and use tax, the largest GRF tax, on the other hand, continued to struggle. Sales and use tax  
receipts came in $39.0 million (4.1%) below estimate in January, resulting in a negative YTD variance of  
$22.7 million (0.4%) for this tax.  
YTD GRF taxes as a whole exceeded estimate by $221.5 million (1.7%), of which $204.0 million occurred in  
the month of January.  
YTD GRF Medicaid expenditures were $191.7 million (2.2%) below estimate, which was larger than the  
$174.6 million (0.9%) negative YTD variance for GRF uses as a whole. Medicaid’s negative YTD variance was  
reduced somewhat by the net positive YTD variance from all other categories.  
GRF Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF Sources  
$
204.0 million  
-$22.9 million  
-3.1%  
$365.0 million  
12.8%  
January  
9.8%  
$
221.5 million  
-$90.8 million  
-1.6%  
$109.8 million  
0.6%  
FY 2018 YTD  
1.7%  
GRF Uses  
GRF Medicaid  
$55.5 million  
Program Expenditures  
Total GRF Uses  
-
$27.3 million  
1.1%  
$27.8 million  
1.1%  
January  
-
5.2%  
-
$191.7 million  
-2.2%  
-$178.5 million  
-$174.6 million  
-0.9%  
FY 2018 YTD  
-
0.9%  
All-Funds Medicaid  
Non-GRF  
All-Funds Total  
ACA - Managed Care  
-
$7.8 million  
-$63.3 million  
-2.9%  
-$15.2 million  
-4.3%  
January  
-
0.7%  
$
18.0 million  
-$173.6 million  
-1.1%  
-$21.7 million  
-0.9%  
FY 2018 YTD  
0.3%  
Key: An up arrow indicates a positive variance (i.e., the amount by which actual is above estimate)  
while a down arrow indicates a negative variance.  
GRF sources mainly consist of state tax revenue (63%) and federal grants (35%) but also include some  
state nontax revenue and transfers in.  
GRF uses mainly consist of various program expenditures (98%) but also include transfers out.  
Both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.  
The full edition of LSC’s monthly Budget Footnotes may be accessed on LSC’s website: www.lsc.ohio.gov.