Ohio Legislative Service Commission
GRF & MEDICAID VARIANCE SUMMARY
July 2018
GRF tax revenue finished the year strongly, outperforming estimates by $155.1 million in June, resulting in a positive
variance of $573.6 million for FY 2018. FY 2018 GRF tax revenues were also above those for FY 2017 by $537.1 million.
Personal income tax receipts accounted for over 75% of the year’s positive variance, exceeding expectations by
$433.8 million. This tax was followed by the sales and use tax, with a positive variance of $120.3 million and the
commercial activity tax with a positive variance of $28.5 million.
GRF expenditures in each program category were below estimate. GRF Medicaid expenditures ended the year
$340.5 million below estimate, making up more than 63% of the negative variance for program expenditures as a
whole, which was $536.9 million for the year.
At the end of the fiscal year, state agencies had encumbered a total of $373.6 million for expenditure in FY 2019.
The state ended the year with a combined GRF and Budget Stabilization Fund unobligated balance of $2.88 billion.
GRF Sources
Tax Revenue
Federal Grants
Total GRF Sources
$
155.1 million
-$30.6 million
-3.8%
$39.4 million
1.3%
June
7.6%
$
573.6 million
-$274.1 million
-2.8%
$197.7 million
0.6%
FY 2018 YTD
2.6%
GRF Uses
GRF Medicaid
$75.2 million
Program Expenditures
Total GRF Uses
-
-$238.8 million
-10.0%
-$228.7 million
-9.6%
June
-
6.2%
-
$340.5 million
-2.3%
-$536.9 million
-$522.9 million
-1.6%
FY 2018 YTD
-
1.7%
All-Funds Medicaid
Non-GRF
All-Funds Total
ACA – Managed Care
-
$55.3 million
-$130.5 million
-6.1%
-$17.1million
-4.9%
June
-
5.9%
-
$338.1 million
-2.8%
-$678.6 million
-2.5%
-$76.4 million
-1.8%
FY 2018 YTD
Key: An up arrow indicates a positive variance (i.e., the amount by which actual is above estimate)
while a down arrow indicates a negative variance.
GRF sources mainly consist of state tax revenue (63%) and federal grants (35%) but also include some
state nontax revenue and transfers in.
GRF uses mainly consist of various program expenditures (98%) but also include transfers out.
Both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state moneys.
The full edition of LSC’s monthly Budget Footnotes may be accessed on LSC’s website: www.lsc.ohio.gov.