Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
LBO BUDGET FOOTNOTES INFOGRAPHIC  
Click here for the full edition of Budget Footnotes  
Issue: February 2019  
Volume: Fiscal Year 2019  
GRF tax revenue for January was $72.0 million below the esꢀmate made by OBM in August 2018, which reduced the posiꢀve year-to-date (YTD)  
variance to $56.7 million. The August esꢀmate did not reflect the 3.3% reducꢀon in employer withholding tax rates effecꢀve January 1, 2019,  
which is expected to reduce the GRF porꢀon of the personal income tax (PIT) revenue by $150.6 million in FY 2019.  
January PIT receipts were below OBM’s August 2018 esꢀmate by $98.9 million, due primarily to esꢀmated payments coming in well below  
esꢀmate. This negaꢀve variance was parꢀally offset by the posiꢀve variances of $25.5 million from the financial insꢀtuꢀon tax and $6.2 million  
from the sales and use tax. YTD, the sales and use tax was $142.6 million above esꢀmate, the PIT was $143.0 million below esꢀmate, and the  
commercial acꢀvity tax (CAT) was $8.5 million above esꢀmate. Compared to actual receipts for the corresponding months of FY 2018, all three  
major taxes experienced growth. The sales and use tax grew 4.6%, the PIT grew 2.3%, and the CAT grew 4.2%.  
GRF program expenditures were $212.7 million below esꢀmate in January, increasing the negaꢀve YTD variance to $531.6 million. Medicaid  
conꢀnued to be the dominaꢀng factor with negaꢀve variances of $144.9 million for the month of January and $459.2 million YTD. Non-Medicaid  
Health and Human Services contributed another $47.2 million to the negaꢀve YTD variance total.  
Non-GRF Medicaid expenditures were $250.6 million above esꢀmate in January due to ꢀming; a large payment that was originally scheduled for  
October was disbursed in January instead. YTD, non-GRF Medicaid expenditures were below esꢀmate, by $365.9 million. Including both GRF and  
non-GRF, all funds Medicaid expenditures were $825.0 million below the YTD esꢀmate.  
GRF & Medicaid Variances Actual vs. Estimate  
Tax revenue  
$72.0 million  
Federal grants  
Total GRF sources  
-
-$109.7 million  
-11.8%  
-$174.9 million  
-5.4%  
-
3.1%  
Program expenditures  
$212.7 million  
Total GRF uses  
-
-$212.6 million  
-7.6%  
Month of January  
-
7.6%  
GRF Medicaid  
$144.9 million  
Non-GRF Medicaid  
All funds Medicaid  
-
$250.6 million  
25.5%  
$105.7 million  
4.5%  
-
10.5%  
Tax revenue  
56.7 million  
Federal grants  
Total GRF sources  
$
-$346.3 million  
-5.6%  
-$287.4 million  
-1.4%  
0
.4%  
Program expenditures  
$531.6 million  
Total GRF uses  
-
-$530.6 million  
-2.5%  
YTD through January  
-
2.6%  
GRF Medicaid  
$459.2 million  
Non-GRF Medicaid  
All funds Medicaid  
-
-$365.9 million  
-5.0%  
-$825.0 million  
-4.9%  
-
4.8%