A monthly newsletter of the Legislative Budget Office of LSC  
Volume: Fiscal Year 2019  
Issue: April 2019  
Highlights  
Ross Miller, Chief Economist  
March GRF tax revenue was $66.0 million above the estimate published by the  
Office of Budget and Management (OBM) in August 2018 (adjusted downward for  
a change in the withholding rate under the income tax). Both the income tax and  
the sales tax were above estimates for the month, between them accounting for  
nearly $40 million of the positive variance. Year-to-date GRF tax revenue through  
March was $137.0 million above estimate. The spending side of the budget was  
well below expectations through the first three quarters, and whether FY 2019  
ends in surplus will depend heavily on expenditures, which have been consistently  
below estimate, and April income tax revenue.  
Through March 2019, GRF sources totaled $24.26 billion:  
Revenue from the sales and use tax was $156.4 million above estimate;  
Personal income tax receipts were $100.7 million below estimate;  
Commercial activity tax receipts were $30.3 million above estimate.  
Through March 2019, GRF uses totaled $25.64 billion:  
Overall program expenditures were $619.7 million below estimate;  
Medicaid expenditures were $629.4 million below estimate and Health  
and Human Services program category expenditures were below estimates  
by $57.2 million;  
Expenditures for several other program categories were above estimates,  
including Primary and Secondary Education ($37.0 million), Property Tax  
Reimbursements ($33.0 million), and Justice and Public Protection  
($21.7 million), due mainly to timing issues.  
In this issue...  
More details on GRF Revenues (p. 2), Expenditures (p. 11),  
the National Economy (p. 23), and the Ohio Economy (p. 24).  
Also Issue Updates on:  
Special License Plates (p. 18)  
Ohio Pharmacy Service Center Appropriation Increase (p. 19)  
Compassionate Touch Project (p. 19)  
Human Trafficking Prevention Grants (p. 20)  
Continuum of Care Program Grants (p. 21)  
State Motor Fuel Tax Refund (p. 22)  
Available online at: www.lsc.ohio.gov/Budget Central  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 1: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of March 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on April 1, 2019)  
State Sources  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
$121,963  
$652,792  
$774,756  
$121,200  
$628,200  
$749,400  
$763  
$24,592  
$25,356  
0.6%  
3.9%  
3.4%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$465,081  
$16,367  
$69,434  
$34,232  
$71,543  
$25  
$29,704  
$247  
$0  
$2,026  
$3,668  
$3,650  
$213  
$0  
$0  
$450,600  
$13,500  
$69,900  
$32,700  
$34,100  
$0  
$41,300  
$2,400  
$0  
$5,500  
$3,600  
$1,900  
$0  
$14,481  
$2,867  
-$466  
$1,532  
$37,443  
$25  
-$11,596  
-$2,153  
$0  
-$3,474  
$68  
$1,750  
$213  
3.2%  
21.2%  
-0.7%  
4.7%  
109.8%  
---  
-28.1%  
-89.7%  
---  
-63.2%  
1.9%  
92.1%  
---  
$0  
$0  
$0  
$0  
---  
---  
Total Tax Revenue  
$1,470,945  
$1,404,900  
$66,045  
4.7%  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$42  
$30,355  
$10,448  
$40,845  
$0  
$32,333  
$10,190  
$42,523  
$42  
-$1,978  
$258  
---  
-6.1%  
2.5%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
-$1,678  
-3.9%  
Transfers In  
$1,014  
$1,512,804  
$854,210  
$0  
$1,447,423  
$915,168  
$1,014  
$65,381  
-$60,957  
$4,424  
---  
4.5%  
-6.7%  
0.2%  
Total State Sources  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF Sources  
$2,367,015  
$2,362,591  
*
personal income, nonauto sales, and kilowatt-hour excise taxes; the latter three were revised  
in February 2019.  
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of August 2018, except for the  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 2  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 2: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate ($ in thousands)  
FY 2019 as of March 31, 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on April 1, 2019)  
State Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2018** Percent  
$1,078,723  
$6,700,379  
$7,779,102  
$1,050,700  
$6,572,000 $128,379  
$7,622,700 $156,402  
$28,023  
2.7%  
2.0%  
2.1%  
$1,031,122  
$6,425,686  
$7,456,808  
4.6%  
4.3%  
4.3%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$6,072,488  
$1,200,251  
$626,849  
$272,923  
$327,588  
$31  
$117,377  
$104,200  
$40,432  
$39,297  
$37,658  
$8,400  
$6,173,200 -$100,712  
-1.6%  
2.6%  
0.5%  
0.2%  
6.8%  
---  
-2.3%  
22.7%  
20.0%  
-6.7%  
2.6%  
82.6%  
---  
$5,957,456  
$1,122,230  
$641,100  
$264,367  
$316,628  
1.9%  
7.0%  
-2.2%  
3.2%  
3.5%  
$1,170,000  
$623,900  
$272,400  
$306,700  
$0  
$30,251  
$2,949  
$523  
$20,888  
$31  
$402 -92.3%  
$121,800  
$120,200  
$84,900  
$33,700  
$42,100  
$36,700  
$4,600  
$0  
-$2,823  
$19,300  
$6,732  
-$2,803  
$958  
$3,800  
$1,456  
$0  
-3.6%  
24.9%  
17.9%  
-9.5%  
4.8%  
$83,421  
$34,302  
$43,401  
$35,945  
$5,442  
$1,971 -26.2%  
-$374 100.0%  
$119 -72.9%  
54.4%  
$1,456  
$0  
$32  
$0  
---  
---  
$0  
$32  
Total Tax Revenue  
$16,628,083 $16,491,100 $136,983  
0.8% $16,085,019  
3.4%  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$55,153  
$52,250  
$66,262  
$173,665  
$38,211  
$53,778  
$76,630  
$168,619  
$16,942  
-$1,528  
-$10,368 -13.5%  
44.3%  
-2.8%  
$30,349  
$50,263  
$247,372 -73.2%  
81.7%  
4.0%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$5,045  
3.0%  
$327,984 -47.1%  
Transfers In  
$83,039  
$87,690  
-$4,651  
-5.3%  
$133,327 -37.7%  
Total State Sources  
$16,884,786 $16,747,409 $137,377  
$7,371,973 $7,856,985 -$485,013  
$24,256,759 $24,604,395 -$347,635  
0.8% $16,546,329  
-6.2% $7,134,929  
-1.4% $23,681,257  
2.0%  
3.3%  
2.4%  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF SOURCES  
*
nonauto sales, and kilowatt-hour excise taxes; the latter three were revised in February 2019.  
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of August 2018, except for the personal income,  
**Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2018.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 3  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
1
Revenues  
Jean J. Botomogno, Principal Economist  
Overview  
With one quarter left in FY 2019, year-to-date (YTD) GRF sources totaling $24.26 billion  
were $347.6 million (1.4%) below revised OBM estimates, down from a cumulative negative  
variance of $351.7 million through February 2019. As noted in the February issue of Budget  
Footnotes, the Tax Commissioner reduced Ohio employer withholding tax rates effective  
January 1, 2019; the reduced rates were estimated to decrease withholding revenue by  
$
152.6 million for FY 2019, with the GRF bearing $150.6 million of the revenue loss. OBM  
2
revised its monthly estimates of personal income tax (PIT) revenue due to this change. Tables 1  
and 2 show GRF sources for the month of March and for FY 2019 through March, respectively,  
with revised estimates of PIT revenue that reflect the new withholding rates. Note that OBM  
updated its GRF tax estimates again with the release of the Blue Book but without revising  
monthly estimates. Therefore, this report's variance analysis does not reflect the Blue Book  
estimates.  
GRF sources consist of state-source receipts, which include tax revenue, nontax  
revenue, and transfers in, and federal grants. The YTD GRF negative variance was primarily due  
3
to a large shortfall of $485.0 million (6.2%) for federal grants, which results from GRF Medicaid  
spending being $629.4 million below expectations through the end of the third fiscal quarter. In  
addition, transfers in fell short of estimates by $4.7 million (5.3%). Those shortfalls were  
partially offset by positive variances of $137.0 million (0.8%) for GRF tax revenues and  
$
5.0 million (3.0%) for nontax revenue.  
Regarding specific GRF taxes, the PIT posted a cumulative YTD negative variance of  
100.7 million, attributable largely to shortfalls from quarterly estimated payments. The  
$
financial institutions tax (FIT), which had a cumulative positive variance of $13.3 million after  
the first payment in January, saw that performance become a deficit of $2.8 million, due to  
4
negative variances of $4.5 million in February and $11.6 million in March. In addition, the  
alcoholic beverage tax posted a YTD timing-related negative variance of $2.8 million. The  
remaining tax sources were above estimates, including the sales and use tax ($156.4 million),  
the commercial activity tax (CAT, $30.3 million), the foreign insurance tax ($20.9 million), the  
1
This report compares actual monthly and year-to-date GRF revenue sources to OBMs  
estimates. If actual receipts were higher than estimate, that GRF source is deemed to have a positive  
variance. Alternatively, a GRF source is deemed to have a negative variance if actual receipts were lower  
than estimate.  
2
The remaining $2.0 million would reduce distributions to the Local Government Fund (LGF) and  
the Public Library Fund (PLF). For accounting purposes, GRF tax revenue distributions to the LGF are  
debited against income tax receipts, while 50% of distributions to the PLF are debited against the  
nonauto sales tax and 50% are debited against the kilowatt-hour tax. FY 2019 estimates for sales and  
kilowatt-hour taxes were also adjusted slightly to account for the rate change.  
3
Federal grants are primarily federal reimbursements for Medicaid.  
4
Receipts of the FIT are typically expected at the end of January, March, and May.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 4  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
public utility tax ($19.3 million), the natural gas consumption tax ($6.7 million), the petroleum  
activity tax ($3.8 million), and the cigarette tax ($2.9 million).  
March GRF sources totaled $2.37 billion, an amount $4.4 million (0.2%) above  
projections. A positive variance of $66.0 million for GRF tax sources was partially offset by a  
negative variance of $61.0 million for federal grants. Also, nontax revenue was below  
anticipated receipts by $1.7 million. Transfers in contributed $1.0 million to the GRF though  
such revenue was not expected this month.  
Most tax sources were above estimates in March; those sources noticeably above  
estimate included the foreign insurance tax ($37.4 million), the sales and use tax  
(
(
$25.4 million), the PIT ($14.5 million), the CAT ($2.9 million), the petroleum activity tax  
$1.7 million), and the kilowatt-hour tax ($1.5 million). On the other hand, in addition to the FIT  
shortfall, the public utility tax was $2.2 million below estimate, and the alcoholic beverage tax  
experienced a timing-related negative variance of $3.5 million. Chart 1, below, shows  
cumulative variances of GRF sources through March.  
Chart 1: Cumulative Variances of GRF Sources in FY 2019  
(
Variances from August Estimates, $ in millions)  
$
$
200  
100  
$0  
-
-
-
-
-
-
$100  
$200  
$300  
$400  
$500  
$600  
Jul-18  
Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19  
Federal Grants Tax Revenue Total GRF Sources  
FY 2019 GRF sources increased $575.5 million relative to sources through March in  
FY 2018. GRF tax sources and federal grants were higher by $543.1 million and $237.0 million,  
respectively. The increases were partially offset by decreases of $154.3 million for nontax  
5
revenue and $50.3 million for transfers in. For the largest tax sources, receipts increased for  
the sales and use tax ($322.3 million), the PIT ($115.0 million), and the CAT ($78.0 million). In  
addition, revenue from the public utility tax, the foreign insurance tax, and the kilowatt-hour  
tax grew by $20.8 million, $11.0 million, and $8.6 million, respectively. On the other hand, the  
cigarette tax, the FIT, and the alcoholic beverage tax experienced revenue declines of  
$
14.3 million, $4.4 million, and $4.1 million, respectively.  
5
An outsize payment of unclaimed funds of over $200 million was made to the GRF in  
February 2018, which explains this large decline in receipts from this category in FY 2019.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 5  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Sales and Use Tax  
During the first three quarters of FY 2019, receipts to the GRF from the sales and use tax  
totaled $7.78 billion. This amount was $156.4 million (2.1%) above estimate, with both the  
nonauto and the auto portions of the tax ahead of projections. YTD GRF receipts from the sales  
and use tax were also 4.3% above revenue through March in FY 2018. For the month, GRF  
receipts of $774.8 million were $25.4 million (3.4%) above anticipated revenue, boosted by a  
strong performance from the nonauto sales tax. Monthly sales and use tax receipts were also  
$
28.6 million (3.8%) above revenue in March 2018.  
For analysis and forecasting, revenue from the sales and use tax is separated into two  
parts: auto and nonauto. Auto sales and use tax collections generally arise from the sale of  
motor vehicles, but auto taxes arising from leases are paid at the lease signing and are mostly  
recorded under the nonauto tax instead of the auto tax.  
Nonauto Sales and Use Tax  
The nonauto sales and use tax surged in March, after two months of weak results. GRF  
revenue of $652.8 million for the month was above projections by $24.6 million (3.9%),  
following a combined negative variance of $7.8 million in January and February. The latest  
performance increased the YTD positive variance of this tax to $128.4 million (2.0%), up from a  
revised $104.2 million through February. Through March, total GRF receipts of $6.70 billion  
were $274.7 million (4.3%) above revenue in the corresponding period in FY 2018. Chart 2,  
6
below, shows year-over-year growth in nonauto sales tax collections. Revenue growth for this  
tax has been solid, supported by employment and wage gains throughout FY 2019. On average  
through three quarters, year-over-year revenue growth was 4.3%, a growth rate equaling that  
of the first six months of FY 2019.  
Chart 2: Nonauto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year (With Tax Base Adjustment,  
Three-month Moving Average)  
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
Jul-18  
Aug-18 Sep-18  
Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18  
Jan-19  
Feb-19 Mar-19  
6
Beginning July 1, 2017, the sales tax on Medicaid health insuring corporations (MHICs) was  
eliminated. Thus, the last payment of $71.7 million deposited in the GRF was made in July 2017  
reflecting taxable activity in June 2017). So, to adjust for changes to the existing tax base, this chart  
(
excludes monthly revenue from MHICs in July 2017 so that changes in nonauto sales and use tax  
revenue are on a comparable basis.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 6  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Auto Sales and Use Tax  
March revenue from the auto sales and use tax of $122.0 million was $0.8 million (0.6%)  
above estimate, and $1.2 million (1.0%) above the amount received in the same month in 2018.  
With a quarter left in the fiscal year, YTD auto sales tax receipts of $1.08 billion were  
$
28.0 million (2.7%) above estimate and $47.6 million (4.6%) above receipts in the  
corresponding period in FY 2018. Chart 3, below, shows year-over-year growth in auto sales tax  
collections. Relative to FY 2018, revenue growth is positive, but the rate has declined lately to  
average about 1% in the last three months. In the first half of the fiscal year, year-over-year  
growth for this tax source was 6.3%.  
Chart 3: Auto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
Jul-18  
Aug-18 Sep-18  
Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18  
Jan-19  
Feb-19 Mar-19  
Nationwide new light vehicle (auto and light truck) averaged 16.9 million units (at a  
seasonally adjusted annual average rate) in the first quarter of calendar year (CY) 2019, below  
sales of about 17.1 million units in the corresponding quarter in 2018, and also trailing total  
sales of 17.3 million units for all of CY 2018. Though temporary factors such as the winter  
weather and the partial shutdown of the federal government explain part of the downshift in  
sales, the lower pace implies that nationwide sales may be peaking despite a good economic  
environment. Data from the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles show that motor vehicles unit sales  
appear to have declined this fiscal year through March, and the rise in tax revenue relative to  
FY 2018 was solely due to price increases for both new and used vehicles. The price increases  
represent the combined effects of inflation and a shift in consumer tastes toward more  
expensive models, especially light trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs).  
Personal Income Tax  
PIT revenue is comprised of gross collections minus refunds and distributions to th7e LGF.  
Gross collections consist of employer withholdings, quarterly estimated payments, trust  
payments, payments associated with annual returns, and other miscellaneous payments. The  
performance of the tax is typically driven by employer withholdings, which is the largest  
7
Quarterly estimated payments are made by taxpayers who expect to be underwithheld by  
more than $500. Payments are due in April, June, and September of an individuals tax year and  
February of the following year. Most estimated payments are made by high-income taxpayers.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 7  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
component of gross collections (about 82% of gross collections in FY 2018). Larger than expected  
refunds could also greatly affect the monthly performance of the tax.  
March PIT receipts of $465.1 million were $14.5 million (3.2%) above estimate. Gross  
collections were above projections by $28.5 million, but that positive variance was partially  
offset by refunds which were $14.2 million higher than anticipated. With the exception of  
quarterly estimated payments that were below estimate by $0.5 million, the remaining  
components were above projections: annual returns payments, employer withholding,  
miscellaneous payments, and trust payments were above estimates by $18.3 million,  
$
6.9 million, $2.8 million, and $1.0 million, respectively.  
March revenue from the PIT decreased the cumulative GRF negative variance of this tax  
to $100.7 million (1.6%), compared to updated estimates, from a shortfall of $115.2 million  
through the first eight months of the fiscal year. For the first half of FY 2019, the PIT  
year-over-year growth was 5.4%, but the withholding rate reduction has pulled down the  
growth rate to 1.9% at the end of March. (The withholding rate reduction of January 1, 2019,  
was estimated to decrease receipts from this component by $75.1 million in the January-March  
quarter).  
Revenues from each component of the PIT relative to revised estimates and to revenue  
received in FY 2018 are detailed in the table below. YTD gross collections were below estimate  
by $41.0 million; and shortfalls for quarterly estimated payments and miscellaneous revenue  
more than offset positive variances from withholding and annual return payments. Higher than  
projected refunds and distributions to the LGF added to the negative variance for gross  
collections, driving up the overall negative variance to the $100.7 million total. FY 2019 refunds  
and LGF distributions also increased compared to their amounts in the corresponding period  
last year, while gross collections grew from FY 2018.  
FY 2019 PIT Revenue Variance and Annual Change by Component  
YTD Variance from Revised  
Changes from FY 2018  
Estimate  
Amount  
$ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
Amount  
($ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
Category  
(
Withholding  
$82.2  
-$157.9  
$3.2  
1.2%  
-22.2%  
10.1%  
24.3%  
-12.6%  
-0.5%  
4.4%  
$295.8  
-$152.9  
$2.5  
4.5%  
-21.7%  
7.8%  
Quarterly Estimated Payments  
Trust Payments  
Annual Return Payments  
Miscellaneous Payments  
Gross Collections  
$40.8  
-$9.2  
$55.4  
-$9.6  
36.2%  
-13.2%  
2.5%  
-$41.0  
$58.4  
$1.3  
$191.2  
$67.3  
$8.9  
Less Refunds  
5.2%  
Less LGF Distribution  
GRF PIT Revenue  
0.4%  
3.1%  
-$100.7  
-1.6%  
$115.0  
1.9%  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 8  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
8
Through March, FY 2019 employer withholding receipts grew 4.5%. However, growth in  
monthly employer withholding only averaged 2.2% in the third quarter of the fiscal year, as a  
result of the January decrease in withholding rate. The chart below illustrates the growth of  
monthly employer withholdings on a three-month moving average relative to one year ago. It  
shows both the actual change in withholding receipts in FY 2019, and estimated payroll growth  
adjusted for the decrease in withholding tax rate in January.  
Chart 4: Monthly Witholding Receipts Trend  
Actual and Adjusted vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
Jul-18  
Aug-18 Sep-18  
Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18  
Actual Adjusted  
Jan-19  
Feb-19 Mar-19  
The performance of the PIT has been poor so far in FY 2019. However, fourth-quarter  
PIT receipts may be as high as a third of total PIT fiscal year receipts; thus results of the  
individual income tax filing season ending in April, and receipts from the first and second  
quarterly estimated payments (due in April and June, respectively) will determine the extent of  
the fiscal years results for this tax source, and probably that of GRF tax receipts as a whole.  
Commercial Activity Tax  
YTD revenue from the CAT to the GRF totaled $1.20 billion, an amount $30.3 million  
(
2.6%) above estimate, and $78.0 million (7.0%) above revenue through March in FY 2018. GRF  
revenue was $16.4 million in March, $2.9 million (21.2%) above estimate and $14.4 million  
713.9%) above such revenue in the same month last year. Compared to FY 2018, gross  
(
collections have been robust in FY 2019. They grew about 6% through March, but refunds and  
credits were lower than in the first three quarters of FY 2018, resulting in a higher growth rate  
for the GRF.  
8
Withholding receipts consist of monthly employer withholding (about 99% of the total) and  
annual employer withholding. YTD through March monthly employer withholding was 4.5% above such  
receipts in the corresponding period in FY 2018. On the other hand, annual employer withholding  
grew 4.7%.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 9  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Under continuing law, CAT receipts are deposited into the GRF (85%), the School District  
Tangible Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7047, 13%), and the Local Government Tangible  
Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7081, 2%). Through March, Fund 7047 and Fund 7081  
received $183.6 million and $28.2 million, respectively. The distributions are used to make  
reimbursement payments to school districts and other local taxing units, respectively, for the  
phase out of property taxes on general business tangible personal property. Any receipts in  
excess of amounts needed for such payments are transferred back to the GRF.  
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Tax  
YTD revenue from the cigarette and other tobacco products (OTP) tax totaling  
626.8 million was above estimate by $2.9 million (0.5%) at the end of March. This total  
$
included $569.5 million from the sale of cigarettes and $57.3 million from the sale of OTP.  
FY 2019 receipts were also $14.3 million (2.2%) below revenues in the corresponding period in  
FY 2018. For the month of March, cigarette tax receipts were $0.5 million (0.7%) below  
estimate and $5.8 million (7.8%) below revenue in the same month in FY 2018.  
Compared to FY 2018, FY 2019 receipts from cigarette sales fell $18.0 million (3.1%)  
while those from the sale of OTP increased $3.7 million (6.9%). On a yearly basis, revenue from  
the cigarette and OTP tax usually trends downward generally at a slow pace due to a decline of  
cigarette revenue, though receipts from OTP tax generally increase. The OTP tax is an ad  
valorem tax, generally 17% of the wholesale price paid by wholesalers for the product; thus,  
revenue from that portion of the tax base (about 7% of the total tax base) grows with OTP price  
increases.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 10  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 3: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of March 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run April 3, 2019)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$619,357  
$188,308  
$6,077  
$616,118  
$188,649  
$3,042  
$3,239  
-$341  
0.5%  
-0.2%  
99.7%  
0.7%  
Other Education  
$3,034  
$5,933  
Total Education  
$813,742  
$807,809  
Medicaid  
$1,304,191 $1,378,026 -$73,834  
$95,128 $99,172 -$4,044  
$1,399,320 $1,477,198 -$77,878  
-5.4%  
-4.1%  
-5.3%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$167,461  
$29,932  
$150,943 $16,517  
$28,320 $1,611  
10.9%  
5.7%  
Total Government Operations  
$197,392  
$179,263 $18,129  
10.1%  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$186,379  
$148,859  
$335,238  
$144,759 $41,620  
28.8%  
-0.6%  
13.8%  
$149,795  
-$936  
Total Other Expenditures  
$294,554 $40,684  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$2,745,692 $2,758,824 -$13,133  
-0.5%  
---  
$6,150  
$0  
$6,150  
Total GRF Uses  
$2,751,842 $2,758,824  
-$6,983  
-0.3%  
*August 2018 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 11  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 4: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2019 as of March 31, 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run April 3, 2019)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2018** Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$6,330,706  
$1,730,016  
$60,503  
$6,293,693  
$1,743,021  
$57,876  
$37,013  
-$13,005  
$2,627  
0.6%  
-0.7%  
4.5%  
$6,234,566  
$1,741,726  
$56,364  
1.5%  
-0.7%  
7.3%  
1.1%  
Other Education  
Total Education  
$8,121,225 $8,094,590  
$26,635  
0.3% $8,032,656  
Medicaid  
$11,381,455 $12,010,809 -$629,353  
$999,692 $1,056,941 -$57,249  
$12,381,148 $13,067,750 -$686,603  
-5.2% $10,945,983  
4.0%  
0.0%  
3.6%  
Health and Human Services  
-5.4%  
$999,541  
Total Health and Human Services  
-5.3% $11,945,524  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$1,723,646  
$283,887  
$1,701,995  
$296,119  
$21,652  
-$12,232  
$9,419  
1.3%  
$1,631,355  
$271,514  
5.7%  
4.6%  
5.5%  
-4.1%  
Total Government Operations  
$2,007,533 $1,998,114  
0.5% $1,902,869  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$1,091,920  
$1,276,519  
$1,058,891  
$1,278,725  
$33,030  
-$2,206  
$30,824  
3.1%  
$989,963  
10.3%  
6.1%  
8.0%  
-0.2%  
$1,202,692  
Total Other Expenditures  
$2,368,440 $2,337,615  
1.3% $2,192,655  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$24,878,346 $25,498,069 -$619,724  
$759,077 $751,933 $7,143  
$25,637,423 $26,250,003 -$612,580  
-2.4% $24,073,704  
3.3%  
1.0%  
$69,445 993.1%  
6.2%  
Total GRF Uses  
-2.3% $24,143,149  
*
*
August 2018 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2018.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 12  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5: Medicaid Expenditures by Department  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on April 2, 2019)  
Month of March 2019  
Year to Date through March 2019  
Department  
Medicaid  
GRF  
Actual  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
$1,247,335 $1,325,721  
$661,049 $727,809  
-$78,386  
-$66,760  
-5.9% $10,859,609 $11,489,915  
-9.2% $6,953,961 $7,414,733  
-$630,306  
-$460,772  
-5.5%  
-6.2%  
-5.8%  
Non-GRF  
$
1,908,385 $2,053,531 -$145,146  
-7.1% $17,813,571 $18,904,648 -$1,091,077  
All Funds  
Developmental Disabilities  
GRF  
$50,777  
183,696  
234,473  
$46,896  
$201,314  
$248,210  
$3,881  
-$17,618  
-$13,737  
8.3%  
-8.8%  
-5.5%  
$453,853  
$453,154  
$698  
-$69,873  
-$69,174  
0.2%  
-4.1%  
-3.2%  
$
$1,621,103 $1,690,976  
$2,074,956 $2,144,131  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$
Job and Family Services  
GRF  
$5,370  
$13,275  
18,645  
$4,854  
$13,418  
$18,272  
$516  
-$143  
$374  
10.6%  
-1.1%  
2.0%  
$60,932  
$135,615  
$196,547  
$60,826  
$119,413  
$180,239  
$105  
$16,202  
$16,308  
0.2%  
13.6%  
9.0%  
Non-GRF  
$
All Funds  
Health, Mental Health and Addiction, Aging, Pharmacy Board, and Education  
GRF  
$709  
$555  
$2,581  
$3,135  
$155  
$1,393  
$1,548  
27.9%  
54.0%  
49.4%  
$7,062  
$25,097  
$32,159  
$6,913  
$27,647  
$34,560  
$148  
-$2,550  
-$2,402  
2.1%  
-9.2%  
-6.9%  
Non-GRF  
$3,974  
$
4,683  
All Funds  
All Departments:  
GRF  
$1,304,191 $1,378,026  
$861,995 $945,122  
-$73,834  
-$83,127  
-5.4% $11,381,455 $12,010,809  
-8.8% $8,735,777 $9,252,769  
-$629,353  
-$516,993  
-5.2%  
-5.6%  
-5.4%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$
2,166,186 $2,323,147 -$156,961  
-6.8% $20,117,232 $21,263,578 -$1,146,346  
*September 2018 estimates from the Department of Medicaid  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 13  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6: All Funds Medicaid Expenditures by Payment Category  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on April 2, 2019)  
Month of March 2019  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Year to Date through March 2019  
Payment Category  
Actual  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
Managed Care  
CFC†  
$1,351,443 $1,453,122 -$101,679  
-7.0% $12,352,663 $13,007,184  
-$654,520  
-5.0%  
$489,276  
$344,976  
$229,524  
$74,164  
$511,269  
$393,578  
$252,548  
$85,184  
-$21,993  
-$48,602 -12.3% $3,105,297  
-$23,024 -9.1% $2,088,391  
-$11,020 -12.9% $684,807  
-4.3% $4,379,142  
$4,521,266  
$3,451,668  
$2,167,678  
$725,710  
-$142,124  
-3.1%  
Group VIII  
ABD†  
-$346,372 -10.0%  
-$79,288  
-$40,903  
$50,156  
-3.7%  
-5.6%  
2.7%  
ABD Kids  
My Care  
P4P & Insurer Fee†  
$213,502  
$0  
$210,542  
$0  
$2,960  
$0  
1.4% $1,900,082  
$194,944  
$1,849,926  
$290,935  
-$95,990 -33.0%  
Fee-For-Service  
ODM Services  
DDD Services  
Hospital - HCAP†  
Hospital - Other  
$643,312  
$314,611  
$222,458  
$0  
$702,766  
$350,020  
$243,161  
$0  
-$59,454  
-8.5% $6,189,676 $6,623,074  
-$433,399  
-$332,572  
-$65,546  
-$680  
-6.5%  
-9.4%  
-3.2%  
-0.1%  
-8.9%  
-$35,409 -10.1% $3,195,547  
-$20,703  
$0  
$3,528,119  
$2,070,212  
$635,291  
$389,453  
-8.5% $2,004,666  
$634,610  
$354,853  
$106,243  
$109,584  
-$3,341 -3.0%  
-$34,601  
Premium Assistance  
Medicare Buy-In  
Medicare Part D  
$88,623  
$50,695  
$37,928  
$98,852  
$59,760  
$39,092  
-$10,229 -10.3%  
-$9,065 -15.2%  
$798,570  
$458,796  
$339,774  
$863,836  
$510,410  
$353,426  
-$65,266  
-$51,614 -10.1%  
-$13,651  
-7.6%  
-$1,164  
-3.0%  
-3.9%  
Administration  
Total  
$82,808  
$68,407  
$14,400  
21.1%  
$776,323  
$769,484  
$6,839  
0.9%  
$2,166,186 $2,323,147 -$156,961  
-6.8% $20,117,232 $21,263,578 -$1,146,346  
-5.4%  
*September 2018 estimates from the Department of Medicaid  
P4P - Pay For Performance, Insurer Fee - Health Insurer Fee  
CFC - Covered Families and Children; ABD - Aged, Blind, and Disabled; HCAP - Hospital Care Assurance Program;  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 14  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
EWexndpy Zheann, Dirdectoirtures9  
Ivy Chen, Principle Economist  
Overview  
In the month of March, overall GRF program expenditures were largely in line with  
estimate, being $13.1 million (0.5%) below estimate. However, three program categories had  
March variances that were bigger than the overall variance. GRF Medicaid expenditures were  
$
73.8 million (5.4%) below estimate. This negative variance was partially offset by timing-  
related positive variances of $41.6 million in property tax reimbursements and $16.5 million in  
Justice and Public Protection. GRF transfers out were $6.2 million in March when no transfers  
were expected. Including both program expenditures and transfers out, GRF uses totaled  
$
2.75 billion in March, which was $7.0 million (0.3%) below estimate.  
Through March, GRF program expenditures totaled $24.88 billion, which was  
619.7 million (2.4%) below the year-to-date (YTD) estimate. GRF transfers out were  
759.1 million, $7.1 million (1.0%) above estimate. GRF uses totaled $25.64 billion through  
$
$
March, which was $612.6 million (2.3%) below estimate. Tables 3 and 4 detail GRF uses for the  
month of March and for FY 2019 through March, respectively.  
Medicaid continued to dominate the negative variances in GRF program expenditures.  
Through March, GRF Medicaid expenditures were $629.4 million (5.2%) below estimate. Health  
and Human Services had the second largest negative YTD variance at $57.2 million (5.4%).  
These negative variances were partially offset by positive YTD variances of $37.0 million (0.6%)  
in Primary and Secondary Education, $33.0 million (3.1%) in Property Tax Reimbursements, and  
$
21.7 million (1.3%) in Justice and Public Protection. The majority of the YTD variances in Health  
and Human Services and Primary and Secondary Education occurred in months prior to March.  
See the prior issue of Budget Footnotes for more detailed information on the variances in those  
two categories.  
The positive YTD variance in Property Tax Reimbursements was due entirely to this  
categorys expenditures being 28.8% higher than estimate in March. Property tax  
reimbursement funds are disbursed upon the request of county auditors. The timing of these  
requests may vary from that assumed in the OBM estimate. The positive YTD variance in  
Property Tax Reimbursements is expected to narrow in the next few months. Similarly, a  
quarterly payment of $16.2 million from the Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections GRF  
appropriation item 501405, Halfway House, was disbursed in March, one month sooner than  
expected, which accounted for the majority of the positive monthly and YTD variances in Justice  
and Public Protection. Item 501405 pays for the costs of the community residential programs  
that provide supervision and treatment services for various offenders.  
9
This report compares actual monthly and YTD expenditures from the GRF to OBMs estimates.  
If a program categorys actual expenditures were higher than estimate, that program category is  
deemed to have a positive variance. The program category is deemed to have a negative variance when  
its actual expenditures were lower than estimate.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 15  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The remainder of this report will discuss the variances in Medicaid, including both GRF  
and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures. Medicaid is mainly funded by the GRF but it is also  
supported by several non-GRF funds.  
Medicaid  
As indicated earlier, GRF Medicaid expenditures were $73.8 million (5.4%) and  
$
629.4 million (5.2%), respectively, below their monthly and YTD estimates. Non-GRF Medicaid  
expenditures were also below their monthly and YTD estimates, by $83.1 million (8.8%) and  
517.0 million (5.6%), respectively. Including both the GRF and non-GRF, all funds Medicaid  
$
expenditures were $157.0 million (6.8%) below estimate in March and $1,146.3 million (5.4%)  
below the YTD estimate at the end of March. As a joint federal-state program, both GRF and  
non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state dollars.  
Table 5 shows GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures for the Ohio Department of  
Medicaid (ODM), the Ohio Department of Developmental Disabilities (ODODD), and six other  
sisteragencies that also take part in administering Ohio Medicaid. ODM and ODODD account  
for about 99% of the total Medicaid budget. Therefore, they also account for the vast majority  
of variances in Medicaid expenditures. The other six agencies Job and Family Services, Health,  
Aging, Mental Health and Addiction Services, State Board of Pharmacy, and Education account  
for the remaining one percent of the total Medicaid budget. Unlike ODM and ODODD, the six  
sisteragencies incur only administrative spending.  
Table 6 shows all funds Medicaid expenditures by payment category. Overall  
expenditures were below their YTD estimates for three of the four major payment categories.  
Managed Care had the largest overall negative variance of $654.5 million (5.0%), followed by  
Fee-For-Service (FFS, $433.4 million, 6.5%), and Premium Assistance ($65.3 million, 7.6%). The  
fourth payment category, Administration, posted a small positive YTD variance of $6.8 million  
(0.9%) due entirely to a positive monthly variance of $14.4 million (21.1%) for the category in  
March.  
Expenditures from all Managed Care categories were below their YTD estimates except  
for MyCare, which had a positive YTD variance of $50.2 million (2.7%). MyCare is a managed  
care program for Ohioans who are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare. Group VIII had the  
largest negative YTD variance within the Managed Care category at $346.4 million (10.0%),  
followed by CFC (Covered Families and Children) at $142.1 million (3.1%), and P4P & Insurer  
Fee (Pay for Performance and Health Insurer Fee) at $96.0 million (33.0%). The negative  
variances for Group VIII and CFC were mainly due to lower than expected caseloads. For the  
first nine months of FY 2019, the average monthly managed care caseloads for Group VIII and  
CFC were 8.3% (52,900) and 2.1% (33,800), respectively, below estimates. Finally, $61.0 million  
of the $96.0 million negative YTD variance in the P4P & Insurer Fee category was due to lower  
than expected Health Insurer Fee payments. The Health Insurer Fee a source of funding for  
the Marketplaces under the federal Affordable Care Act (ACA)is a tax by the federal  
government on certain entities that provide health insurance. The tax applies to Medicaid  
managed care companies and is incorporated into Ohios Medicaid managed care capitation  
rates.  
The negative YTD variance in FFS was primarily due to lower than expected FFS  
caseloads. Beginning January 1, 2018, newly eligible individuals are removed from FFS and  
enrolled onto managed care shortly after receiving Medicaid benefits. Previously, when ODM  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 16  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
prepared the estimates, newly eligible individuals could remain in the0 FFS system for several  
1
weeks while they decided which managed care plan in which to enroll.  
Expenditures from Medicare Buy-In and Medicare Part D, the two premium assistance  
payment categories, have been below estimates all year long. The negative variances in both  
categories have grown somewhat each month. Medicare Buy-In helps certain Medicare eligible  
individuals who have limited income to pay Medicare premiums, deductibles, and coinsurance.  
Medicare Part D pays the federal government back (claw back) the prescription drug costs for  
individuals who are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare.  
10  
The Health Insurer Fee was in effect from 2014 through 2016. The U.S. Congress approved a  
one-year moratorium for 2017, but the tax went back into effect (and remains in effect) for 2018.  
Congress suspended the tax once again in 2019; if not further delayed, it will be collected again  
beginning in 2020.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 17  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Issue Updates  
BMV Issues More Than 450,000 Special License Plates in 2018  
Maggie West, Senior Budget Analyst  
In calendar year 2018, the Bureau of Motor Vehicles (BMV) issued or renewed a total of  
53,559 special license plates. The number of different active plates totaled 337, each of which  
4
generally falls into one of four categories: organizational (174 plates), collegiate (56 plates),  
military (102 plates), and disability (5 plates). The table below lists the top five organizational,  
collegiate, and military plates issued in 2018, the number of each, and the total number issued  
for each category.  
Of the 337 different active special license plates, the 56 collegiate, and 141 of the  
1
These contributions generally are earmarked for programs related to health, sports, children,  
pets, colleges, and the environment. These special license plates as a group generated over  
74 organizational plates, require a contribution that varies by type of plate from $5 to $40.  
$
they are issued at no cost to the registrant.  
3 million in contributed revenue. The military and disability plates do not generate revenue as  
Special license plates generally are subject to minimum registration requirements,  
which if not met, may result in termination of the plate. According to the BMV, no license  
plates were terminated for failure to meet that requirement in 2018.  
Top Five Special License Plates Issued by Category,* Calendar Year 2018  
Organizational  
License Plate  
Collegiate  
License Plate  
Military  
License Plate  
Total  
Total  
18,868  
3,074  
Total  
Historical  
Motor Vehicles)  
Ohio State University  
(Block O)  
U.S. Armed Forces  
Veteran (Army)  
1
7,103  
32,416  
19,624  
18,102  
16,074  
13,970  
(
U.S. Armed Forces  
Veteran (Marine)  
Wildlife (Cardinal)  
Ohio Pets  
14,876 University of Cincinnati  
Ohio State University  
9,904  
2,264 Vietnam Veteran  
(
Spirit Mark)  
One Nation Under  
God  
U.S. Armed Forces  
2,080  
9
,427 Ohio University  
Miami University  
9,374  
Veteran (Navy)  
U.S. Armed Forces  
1,909  
Lake Erie Lighthouse  
(
Block M)  
Veteran (Air Force)  
Organizational  
License Plate Total  
Collegiate License Plate  
179,768 Total  
Military License  
37,603 Plate Total  
174,403  
*Does not include 61,785 disability plates issued to individuals and governmental entities.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 18  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Appropriation Increase for the Ohio Pharmacy Service Center  
Ryan Sherrock, Economist  
On February 11, 2019, the Controlling Board approved a request from the Ohio  
Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services (OhioMHAS) to increase the FY 2019  
appropriation for the Ohio Pharmacy Service Center (OPSC) by $10.0 million. The funding for  
this increase comes from sales to numerous entities, including several state departments.  
Funds will be used to purchase additional pharmaceutical and medical supplies, such as  
naloxone and specialty medications for cancer, Crohns disease, and Hepatitis C. In addition,  
these funds will be used to purchase other supplies as requested by participating entities. For  
instance, OPCS recently started purchasing CPAP machines, oxygen concentrators, and nursery  
items (e.g., food, diapers, and over-the-counter medications) at the request of the Department  
of Rehabilitation and Corrections (DRC). The respiratory items will be used for inmates needing  
specialized care at DRC facilit1i1es, while the nursery items will be used at the Ohio Reformatory  
for Womens nursery center.  
OPSC is a self-supporting center that is under the administration of OhioMHAS. It  
purchases wholesale pharmaceuticals and medical supplies on behalf of certain state and  
community agencies. OPSC also provides pharmacy dispensing and delivery services, as well as  
consultation in pharmacy standards and drug information. It handles the bidding and  
procurement of goods and services and in return receives revenues for providing these  
services. Besides OhioMHAS and DRC, other participating state agencies include the  
departments of Youth Services and Developmental Disabilities. Various county, municipal, and  
nonprofit entities may participate as well.  
Compassionate Touch Project Launched in April  
Alexander B. Moon, Economist  
On April 1, 2019, a three-year Compassionate Touch Project was launched to reduce  
behavioral expression in people with dementia. The AGE-u-cate Training Institute, which is  
headquartered in Texas, will administer the project. The projects goal is to replace the  
unnecessary usage of antipsychotic medications with nonpharmacological solutions, which  
include skilled touch techniques and specialized communication. A total of 140 nursing homes  
located throughout Ohio will be selected to take part in the project. In turn, each nursing home  
will select ten residents to participate. Residents chosen must be diagnosed with dementia or a  
related condition, exhibit behavioral expressions that might be decreased by using  
compassionate touch (CT) techniques, and must be on one or more antipsychotic medications.  
The project will provide two hours of onsite training for direct-care and support staff, followed  
by six hours of online e-learning for CT coaches. The project will then facilitate in-house training  
for additional staff and family caregivers. The project is anticipated to benefit nursing home  
residents by decreasing restlessness and physical discomfort while increasing trust in  
caregivers. It is also expected to reduce the incidence of resident physical or verbal behaviors  
towards others.  
11  
The Ohio Reformatory for Women, located in Marysville, opened its nursery program in  
June 2001 to allow incarcerated inmates to maintain custody of their infants and to provide parenting  
instruction. The program is the only nursery program in Ohio that is located within a prison.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 19  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) approved approximately  
700,000 in funding for the project. The funding comes from civil monetary penalties imposed  
$
on nursing facilities that do not meet federal health and safety standards. States are required to  
use these grant funds to improve residentsoutcomes in Medicaid, or Medicare, certified  
nursing homes. The Ohio Department of Medicaid recommended the project to CMS and will  
receive quarterly progress reports and a final report that evaluates project outcomes and  
results.  
State Awards $90,000 for Human Trafficking Prevention  
Nicholas J. Blaine, Budget Analyst  
On January 22, 2019, the Ohio Children’s Trust Fund (OCTF), in collaboration with the  
Ohio Human Trafficking Task Force awarded $90,000 in grant funding to support seven  
trafficking prevention programs. Funds will be used to identify and assist at-risk youth  
populations and to provide them with information and resources to prevent human trafficking.  
The table below shows the recipient, counties served by each recipient, and the award amount.  
2
019 Human Trafficking Prevention Grants  
Recipient  
County Service Area  
Franklin  
Grant Award  
$6,920  
Asian American Community Services  
The Childrens Center of Medina County  
Gracehaven  
Medina  
$11,588  
$11,750  
$15,000  
Franklin  
Mahoning  
COMPASS Family & Community Services  
Athens, Gallia, Hocking,  
Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton  
Survivor Advocacy Outreach Program  
$15,000  
YMCA Youth Opportunities Program  
YWCA-Hamilton  
Lucas  
$15,000  
$15,000  
Butler  
The OCTF is governed by a 15-member board which consists of state agency  
administrators, gubernatorial appointees, and legislators. Board members are responsible for  
child abuse and neglect prevention policy and the monitoring of expenditures from the Ohio  
Childrens Trust Fund. The Ohio Human Trafficking Task Force, which consists of representatives  
from various state agencies, was created in 2012 by an executive order. The Task Force  
coordinates efforts to identify victims, creates a coordinated law enforcement system to  
investigate and prosecute trafficking crimes, and provides services to victims to help them  
regain control of their lives. In addition to awarding grants, the Ohio Human12Trafficking Task  
Force published a report in January 2019 detailing its work from 2017 to 2018.  
12  
https://humantrafficking.ohio.gov/OhioHumanTraffickingTaskForceReport0119.pdf.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 20  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Ohio Awarded $103.5 million to Support Homeless Programs  
under HUD’s Continuum of Care Program  
Shannon Pleiman, Budget Analyst  
In February and January, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development  
(
HUD) awarded a total of $103.5 million in grants under the Continuum of Care Program to  
support 294 homeless programs in Ohio. Of this amount, $90.7 million was awarded to  
61 existing projects and $12.8 million will support 33 new homeless projects. The goal of the  
2
program is to promote a communitywide commitment of ending homelessness. Homeless  
prevention and assistance services in Ohio are coordinated by eight urban federally designated  
entitlement counties, referred to as Continuums of Care (CoC), and the Balance of State CoC,  
which represents the other 80 counties. The table below displays grant funding awarded for  
existing and new projects by Ohio CoC.  
HUDs Continuum of Care Program Grants by CoC  
Funding for Existing  
Projects  
Funding for New  
Projects  
Continuum of Care  
Total Funding  
$28,162,915  
Cuyahoga County  
Hamilton County  
Franklin County  
Montgomery County  
Summit County  
Lucas County  
$25,340,507  
$16,313,734  
$11,497,453  
$9,034,824  
$4,243,259  
$3,246,880  
$2,877,067  
$1,772,654  
$16,369,464  
$90,695,842  
$2,822,408  
$3,163,098  
$1,266,309  
$1,294,023  
$592,607  
$19,476,832  
$12,763,762  
$10,328,847  
$4,835,866  
$3,955,340  
$2,965,295  
$1,919,042  
$19,116,526  
$103,524,425  
$708,460  
Stark County  
$88,228  
Mahoning County  
Balance of State  
Total  
$146,388  
$2,747,062  
$12,828,583  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 21  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
H.B. 62 Exempts Schools, County DD Boards, and Transit  
Systems from its State Motor Fuel Tax Increases  
Wendy Zhan, Director  
rd  
H.B. 62, the transportation budget of the 133 General Assembly, increases the state  
motor fuel tax (MFT) rate by 10.5¢ per gallon for gas3 and 19¢ per gallon for diesel, effective  
1
July 1, 2019. However, it exempts school districts, county developmental disability (DD)  
boards, and public transit systems from the increases. Currently, school districts and county  
DD boards are refunded at a rate of 6¢ per gallon while transit systems are refunded 27¢ per  
gallon. In other words, school districts and county DD boards currently pay the state MFT in an  
amount of 22¢ per gallon while transit systems pay 1¢ per gallon. These entities will continue to  
pay the same MFT rates under H.B. 62.  
It is estimated that H.B. 62 will increase the refunds in FY 2020 by approximately  
2.4 million for school districts and county DD boards and by approximately $2.7 million for  
$
transit systems. In FY 2018, school districts and county DD boards were refunded $1.4 million of  
the state MFT for fuel purchased for their operations while transit systems were refunded  
$
as well as for transit systems from FY 2013 through FY 2018.  
3.8 million. The table below shows the MFT refunds for school districts and county DD boards  
State Motor Fuel Tax Refunds, FY 2013-FY 2018  
School District &  
Fiscal Year  
Transit System  
Total  
County DD Board  
$1,270,111  
$1,628,118  
$1,464,966  
$1,733,082  
$1,434,279  
$1,388,045  
FY 2013  
FY 2014  
FY 2015  
FY 2016  
FY 2017  
FY 2018  
$4,159,630  
$4,652,706  
$4,153,446  
$4,122,787  
$4,459,976  
$3,768,447  
$5,429,742  
$6,280,825  
$5,618,412  
$5,855,869  
$5,894,254  
$5,156,493  
13  
Including joint vocational school districts and educational service centers.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 22  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
TErric Maakcelak, Eiconnomgist the Economy  
Overview  
The U.S. economy continues to expand, though some economic indicators have turned  
weaker this year. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 196,000 nationally in March, and the  
U.S. unemployment rate remained at 3.8%. Manufacturing production, in the industrial  
production index, declined in January and February. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product  
(
of 2018, up from 2.2% growth in 2017. The value of new construction projects nationally rose a  
seasonally adjusted 1.0% in February, the third consecutive increase after declines earlier in  
real GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018, and by 2.9% in all  
2
018. Home sales nationally have perked up in recent months.  
The unemployment rate in Ohio decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.6% in February.  
Approximately 8,200 nonagricultural wage and salary jobs were lost in Ohio during the month.  
Between February 2018 and February 2019, nonagricultural wage and salary employment rose  
by 36,100. The number of existing homes sold in Ohio is down 1.1% year to date from 2018.  
The Federal Reserve, the nations central bank, decided to keep its short-term interest  
rate target between 2.25% and 2.50% during a March 19-20 meeting of its Federal Open  
Market Committee (FOMC). The post-meeting statement noted slower growth of the economy  
as well as lower inflation, th4ough inflation excluding food and energy prices remains near the  
1
committees 2% objective. The statement reiterated a pledge to be patient in deciding on  
future interest rate changes. Interest rates on federal funds futures declined in recent weeks;  
this trend suggests investors are bankin15g on the FOMC lowering the short-term interest rate at  
some point during the next 12 months.  
The National Economy  
Real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2018, revised downward  
from the initial estimate of 2.6%. The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of  
2
018 reflects slower than previously estimated growth in personal consumption expenditure,  
nonresidential fixed investment, and government spending. Seasonally adjusted, annualized  
real GDP growth has remained above 2.0% each quarter since the first quarter of 2017.  
Nonresidential fixed investment rose in 2018, while residential fixed investment fell 0.3%.  
Exports grew by 4.0% during 2018 after 3.0% growth in 2017. Imports grew by 4.5% in 2018  
after 4.6% growth in 2017.  
The U.S. unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in March, unchanged from February and  
down 0.2 percentage point from March 2018. Total nonfarm pa6yroll employment increased by  
1
1
96,000 during the month. The labor force participation rate was 63.0% in the U.S. during  
March, up slightly from 62.9% in March 2018.  
14  
15  
16  
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20190320a.htm.  
https://research.stlouisfed.org/datatrends/usfd/page14.php.  
Equal to the number of workers plus the number of unemployed people divided by the civilian  
noninstitutionalized population.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 23  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 5: U.S. Employment and Unemployment  
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
52  
49  
46  
43  
40  
37  
34  
31  
28  
11.0%  
10.0%  
9.0%  
8.0%  
7.0%  
6.0%  
5.0%  
4.0%  
3.0%  
2
008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
Nonfarm Payroll Employment  
Unemployment Rate (right scale)  
The health care sector added 49,000 jobs in March, mostly in the areas of ambulatory  
health care services (+27,000) and hospitals (+14,000). Employment in professional and  
technical services grew by 34,000 in March; food services and drinking places added 27,000  
jobs nationally during that time. Employment in most other major industries, including  
manufacturing, showed little change over the month.  
Nationally, industrial production was unchanged7 in February, following 0.1% declines in  
1
December and January. Among major market groups, business equipment was estimated to  
have the largest percentage drop in production during February. The industrial production  
index (IPI) underwent its annual revision during March. Historical IPI growth rates were revised  
slightly upward for calendar years 2016 and 2017, and revised slightly downward for 2018.  
According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the country’s manufacturing  
sector expanded in March. The rise in production was more widespread than as measured by  
ISM in February. The new orders and employment metrics were also reported to have grown  
faster in March than in February.  
The consumer price index for all items rose 0.2% in Feb8ruary, after three consecutive  
1
months of no increase. The price index for energy commodities rose by a seasonally adjusted  
1
.5% in February after declining in four of the previous six months. Year over year, the price of  
all items, excluding the more volatile sub-indexes for food and energy, increased 2.1%.  
The Ohio Economy  
Ohios unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point in February, to 4.6%. The  
number of unemployed people decreased 4,000 during the month; over the past 12 months,  
1
7
8
As identified by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.  
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other fuels.  
1
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 24  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
the number of unemployed people has gone up by approximately 8,000 and stood at 265,000 in  
February.  
Ohio lost 8,200 nonagricultural wage and salary jobs during the month of February, after  
a rise of a revised 19,100 in January, according to the latest business establishment survey  
conducted by the U.S. Department of Labor and the Ohio Department of Job and Family  
Services. In February, Ohios wage and salary worker total stood at 5.59 million.  
Nonfarm employment in goods-producing industries decreased 4,800 over the month,  
with losses in the construction (-3,800) and manufacturing (-1,100) industries countered by a  
modest gain in mining and logging (+100). Employment was down in February in trade,  
transportation, and utilities (-1,900), as well as in leisure and hospitality (-1,500). Government  
employment decreased by 300, as gains in federal (+500) and state (+200) government were  
outweighed by losses in local government (-1,000).  
Chart 6: Ohio Employment and Unemployment Rate  
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
.7  
.6  
.5  
.4  
.3  
.2  
.1  
.0  
.9  
12.0%  
11.0%  
10.0%  
9.0%  
8.0%  
7.0%  
6.0%  
5.0%  
4.0%  
2
008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate (right scale)  
From February 2018 to February 2019, nonagricultural wage and salary employment  
grew by 36,100 (0.6%). The private service-producing sector added 29,300 jobs while  
employment in goods-producing industries rose by 11,100 year to year. During that time, local  
government employment in Ohio decreased by 4,700, or 0.9%.  
According to the most recent estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Ohios  
personal income increased by 3.5% during 2018, as compared to 2017. Dividends, interest, and  
rent income rose 4.4%, while transfer receipts increased 3.1%. Ohioansnet earnings, measured  
as wages, salaries, benefits, and proprietorsincome less Social Security and Medicare taxes,  
increased by 3.4% year over year.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 25  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
According to the Ohio Association of Realtors, existing home sales were up 2.7% in  
February compared with February 2018. The average sale price for existing homes was 8.1%  
higher during the first two months of 2019, as compared to the first two months of 2018. Year  
to date, the total value of existing home sales in 2019 has increased 6.8% from 2018.  
In Ohio private service-providing industries, the average weekly earnings of all  
employees increased from around $766 in 2017 to $789 in 2018, an increase of 2.9%. The  
average number of hours worked per week was little changed, and the increase in earnings for  
workers in these industries was mostly due to the rise in average hourly earnings. In the  
manufacturing sector, the average number of hours worked by each employee per week  
decreased by 0.2 hours from 2017 to 2018. Average weekly earnings increased from  
approximately $1,083 to $1,111, an increase of around 2.6%. The average hours worked by  
production employees in the retail trade industry increased by 0.3 hours, while their average  
hourly earnings were little changed. The average weekly earnings of retail trade production  
workers increased 1.2% over the year, to approximately $449.  
Chart 7 shows the growth trends of total employment, average weekly work hours, and  
average weekly earnings for Ohio workers. Employment has grown steadily between 2009 and  
2
018. The length of the average workweek has remained largely unchanged for Ohioans,  
particularly since 2014. Average hourly earnings for Ohioans increased by 2.7% in 2018,  
following growth of 3.2% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2016. This growth suggests the real rate of pay  
has increase1d9 on average. However, these statistics ignore the distributional effects in the  
source data.  
Chart 7: Ohio Employment, Work Hours, and Earnings Growth  
6%  
4%  
2%  
0%  
-
-
-
2%  
4%  
6%  
2
009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018  
State Fiscal Years  
Employment  
Average Weekly Hours  
Average Hourly Earnings  
19  
For example, all people can work the same number of hours but only the highest-paid  
employees might get raises.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 26  
April 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The most recent version of the Be20ige Book of the Federal Reserve Bank reported on  
economic activity in the Cleveland District:  
The District economy grew at a modest pace, with services driving much of that  
growth. Seasonal factors temporarily weighed on growth in construction and freight.  
Employment increased modestly in many sectors. Wages grew moderately across the board.  
Selling prices rose moderately, as companies passed through cost increases to their customers.  
A drop in mortgage rates spurred slight improvement in home sales.”  
20  
The report is part of the latest Federal Reserve System Beige Book that summarizes  
information from outside contacts collected on or before February 25, 2019. The Federal Reserve Bank  
of Cleveland’s district includes all of Ohio and parts of Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 27  
April 2019