A monthly newsletter of the Legislative Budget Office of LSC  
Volume: Fiscal Year 2019  
Issue: May 2019  
Highlights  
Ross Miller, Chief Economist  
April income tax filings yielded receipts exceeding the Office of Budget and  
Management’s (OBM’S) February estimate by $350 million, and total GRF receipts  
from the tax exceeded estimate by $377 million. GRF receipts from the sales and  
use tax also beat projections, so that overall GRF tax receipts exceeded the  
estimate for the month by $414 million. GRF Medicaid spending was below  
estimate by $100 million for the month, so that April made a very strong  
contribution to what can now confidently be projected to be a positive GRF  
balance at the end of FY 2019 amounting to several hundred million dollars.  
Ohios unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% in February to 4.4% in March,  
and Ohios nonfarm payroll employment increased by 6,300 for the month.  
Through April 2019, GRF sources totaled $27.42 billion:  
Revenue from the sales and use tax was $177.7 million above estimate;  
Personal income tax receipts were $276.7 million above estimate.  
Through April 2019, GRF uses totaled $28.25 billion:  
Program expenditures were $701.2 million below estimate, driven by  
Medicaid spending that was $730 million below estimate;  
Expenditures from a few program categories were above estimates,  
including Property Tax Reimbursements ($64.7 million) and Primary and  
Secondary Education ($28.1 million), with both of those variances primarily  
due to timing.  
In this issue...  
More details on GRF Revenues (p. 2), Expenditures (p. 11),  
the National Economy (p. 24), and the Ohio Economy (p. 25).  
Also Issue Updates on:  
TANF Spending Plan (p. 17)  
Youth Resiliency Grants (p. 18)  
Concealed Handgun Report (p. 18)  
Violent Offender Database (p. 19)  
Land and Water Conservation Fund (p. 20)  
Phosphorous Reduction Initiatives (p. 21)  
Arts Council Individual Excellence Awards (p. 22)  
Library Science and Technology Grants (p. 22)  
Available online at: www.lsc.ohio.gov/Budget Central  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 1: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of April 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on May 1, 2019)  
State Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
$159,379  
$778,735  
$938,115  
$142,200  
$774,600  
$916,800  
$17,179  
$4,135  
$21,315  
12.1%  
0.5%  
2.3%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$1,329,668  
$71,084  
$72,922  
$32,288  
$150  
$299  
$31,012  
$229  
$4,040  
$4,865  
$4,153  
$0  
$96  
$0  
$952,300 $377,368  
39.6%  
17.3%  
-3.2%  
2.5%  
121.5%  
-62.6%  
16.2%  
14.4%  
9.2%  
43.1%  
1.3%  
---  
$60,600  
$75,300  
$31,500  
-$700  
$800  
$10,484  
-$2,378  
$788  
$850  
-$501  
$4,312  
$29  
$26,700  
$200  
$3,700  
$3,400  
$4,100  
$0  
$340  
$1,465  
$53  
$0  
$0  
$96  
---  
---  
---  
$0  
$0  
$41  
$0  
$41  
Total Tax Revenue  
$2,488,960 $2,074,700 $414,260  
20.0%  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$27,466  
$10,935  
$17,225  
$55,627  
$21,795  
$3,030  
$463  
$5,671  
$7,905  
$16,762 3622.9%  
26.0%  
260.9%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$25,288  
$30,339  
120.0%  
Transfers In  
$1,550  
$0  
$1,550  
---  
Total State Sources  
$2,546,137 $2,099,988 $446,149  
$621,799 $701,785 -$79,986  
$3,167,936 $2,801,773 $366,163  
21.2%  
-11.4%  
13.1%  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF Sources  
*
the personal income, nonauto sales, and kilowatt-hour exercise taxes; the latter three  
were revised in February 2019.  
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of August 2018, except for  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 2  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 2: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate ($ in thousands)  
FY 2019 as of April 30, 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on May 1, 2019)  
State Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent FY 2018** Percent  
$1,238,103 $1,192,900  
$7,479,114 $7,346,600  
$8,717,217 $8,539,500  
$45,203  
$132,514  
$177,717  
3.8% $1,175,230  
1.8% $7,191,490  
2.1% $8,366,720  
5.3%  
4.0%  
4.2%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$7,402,156 $7,125,500  
$1,271,335 $1,230,600  
$276,656  
$40,735  
$571  
$1,311  
$21,738  
3.9% $6,899,291  
3.3% $1,185,259  
7.3%  
7.3%  
-2.2%  
3.4%  
3.4%  
$699,771  
$305,211  
$327,738  
$330  
$699,200  
$303,900  
$306,000  
$800  
0.1%  
0.4%  
7.1%  
$715,592  
$295,279  
$316,961  
-$470 -58.8%  
$1,523 -78.3%  
$148,390  
$104,428  
$44,472  
$44,162  
$41,810  
$8,400  
$1,551  
$0  
$146,900  
$85,100  
$37,400  
$45,500  
$40,800  
$4,600  
$0  
$1,490  
$19,328  
$7,072  
-$1,338  
$1,010  
$3,800  
$1,551  
$0  
1.0%  
22.7%  
18.9%  
-2.9%  
2.5%  
82.6%  
---  
$145,571  
1.9%  
24.7%  
15.9%  
-4.3%  
4.3%  
$83,774  
$38,361  
$46,152  
$40,076  
$5,442  
$1,971 -21.3%  
-$374 100.0%  
$132 -44.7%  
54.4%  
$0  
---  
---  
$73  
$0  
$73  
Total Tax Revenue  
$19,117,044 $18,565,800  
$551,244  
3.0% $18,141,729  
5.4%  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$82,619  
$63,186  
$83,487  
$229,291  
$60,006  
$56,809  
$77,092  
$193,907  
$22,613  
$6,377  
$6,394  
$35,384  
37.7%  
11.2%  
8.3%  
$46,844  
$60,876  
$262,984 -68.3%  
76.4%  
3.8%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
18.2%  
$370,704 -38.1%  
Transfers In  
$84,588  
$87,690  
-$3,102  
$583,526  
-$564,999  
$18,528  
-3.5%  
$133,327 -36.6%  
Total State Sources  
$19,430,923 $18,847,397  
$7,993,772 $8,558,771  
$27,424,696 $27,406,168  
3.1% $18,645,760  
-6.6% $8,057,708  
0.1% $26,703,468  
4.2%  
-0.8%  
2.7%  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF SOURCES  
*
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of August 2018, except for the personal income,  
nonauto sales, and kilowatt-hour exercise taxes; the latter three were revised in February 2019.  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2018.  
*
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 3  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
1
Revenues  
Jean J. Botomogno, Principal Economist  
Overview  
The personal income tax (PIT) surged ahead of revenue projections by $377.4 million  
(39.6%) in April 2019. This performance boosted GRF tax receipts to a positive variance of  
$
414.3 million (20.0%) for the month. Due to results from this revenue category, year-to-date  
(YTD) GRF sources totaling $27.42 billion were $18.5 million (0.1%) above revised OBM  
estimates, up from a cumulative negative variance of $347.6 million for the first three quarters  
of the fiscal year.  
GRF sources consist of state-source receipts, which include tax revenue, nontax  
revenue, and transfers in, and federal grants. YTD through April, GRF tax revenues posted a  
positive variance of $551.2 million (3.0%), nearly ensuring this revenue category will exceed  
anticipated fiscal year receipts at the end of June. On the other hand, a large shortfall of  
$
565.0 million (6.6%) for federal grants more than offset the positive variance of tax sources.  
2
Federal grants are also likely to finish the fiscal year below estimates. Regarding the remaining  
GRF categories, nontax revenue was $35.4 million (18.2%) above estimate, while transfers in  
were $3.1 million (3.5%) below projected revenues.  
As noted in the February issue of Budget Footnotes, the Tax Commissioner reduced Ohio  
employer withholding tax rates effective January 1, 2019; the reduced rates were estimated to  
decrease withholding revenue by $152.6 million for FY 2019, with the GRF bearing  
$
150.6 million of the revenue loss. OBM revised its monthly estimates of PIT revenue due to  
3
this change. Tables 1 and 2 show GRF sources for the month of April and for FY 2019 through  
April, respectively, with revised estimates of PIT revenue that reflect the new withholding rates.  
Note that OBM updated its GRF tax estimates again with the release of the Blue Book but  
without revising monthly estimates. Therefore, this reports variance analysis does not reflect  
the Blue Book estimates.  
Regarding specific GRF tax sources, the PIT posted a cumulative YTD positive variance of  
276.7 million, attributable to the April performance. Among the other largest tax sources, the  
$
sales and use tax was $177.7 million above estimate, the commercial activity tax (CAT)  
surpassed expectations by $40.7 million, and the cigarette and other tobacco products tax was  
on target relative to estimates. Most of the remaining tax sources were above estimates,  
1
This report compares actual monthly and year-to-date GRF revenue sources to OBMs  
estimates. If actual receipts were higher than estimate, that GRF source is deemed to have a positive  
variance. Alternatively, a GRF source is deemed to have a negative variance if actual receipts were lower  
than estimate.  
2
Federal grants are primarily federal reimbursements for Medicaid. GRF Medicaid spending was  
$
729.7 million below estimates through April.  
3
The remaining $2.0 million would reduce distributions to the Local Government Fund (LGF) and  
the Public Library Fund (PLF). For accounting purposes, GRF tax revenue distributions to the LGF are  
debited against income tax receipts, while 50% of distributions to the PLF are debited against the  
nonauto sales tax and 50% are debited against the kilowatt-hour tax. FY 2019 estimates for sales and  
kilowatt-hour taxes were also adjusted slightly to account for the rate change.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 4  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
including the foreign insurance tax ($21.7 million), the public utility excise tax ($19.3 million),  
the natural gas consumption tax ($7.1 million), and the petroleum activity tax ($3.8 million). On  
the other hand, the alcoholic beverage tax and the domestic insurance tax experienced  
shortfalls of $1.3 million and $0.5 million, respectively.  
April GRF sources totaled $3.17 billion, an amount $366.2 million (13.1%) above  
projections. In addition to GRF tax sources, nontax revenue and transfers in were also above  
4
anticipated receipts by $30.3 million and $1.6 million, respectively. Those positive variances  
were partially offset by a negative variance of $80.0 million for federal grants. Most tax sources  
were above estimates for the month, including the PIT, the sales and use tax ($21.3 million), the  
CAT ($10.5 million), the financial institutions tax (FIT, $4.3 million) and the alcoholic beverage  
tax ($1.5 million). The cigarette and other tobacco products tax, which was $2.4 million below  
projections, experienced the only substantial monthly revenue shortfall. Chart 1, below, shows  
cumulative variances of GRF sources through April.  
Chart 1: Cumulative Variances of GRF Sources in FY 2019  
(
Variances from August Estimates, $ in millions)  
$
$
$
$
800  
600  
400  
200  
$0  
-
-
-
-
$200  
$400  
$600  
$800  
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19  
Federal Grants Tax Revenue Total GRF Sources  
FY 2019 GRF sources increased $721.2 million relative to sources through April in  
FY 2018. GRF tax sources were higher by $975.3 million, but receipts from the other GRF  
categories fell below their levels of last year. Nontax revenue, federal grants, and transfers in  
5
decreased by $141.4 million, $63.9 million, and $48.7 million, respectively. Receipts increased  
for the largest tax sources (sales and use tax, PIT, and CAT), though revenue from the cigarette  
and other tobacco products tax continued its usual yearly downward trend.  
4
More than half of the nontax revenue variance was due to revenue from recovery of statewide  
indirect costs. They are operating costs incurred by an agency in providing services to any other agency,  
for which there was no billing for the services provided, and for which disbursements have been made  
from the general revenue fund or other funds. OBM charges agencies for these indirect costs and  
allocates the revenue to the GRF.  
5
An outsize payment of unclaimed funds of over $200 million was made to the GRF in  
February 2018, which explains this large decline in receipts from this category in FY 2019.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 5  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Sales and Use Tax  
Through April in FY 2019, receipts to the GRF from the sales and use tax totaled  
8.72 billion. This amount was $177.7 million (2.1%) above estimate, with both the nonauto  
$
and the auto portions of the tax ahead of projections. With two months left in FY 2019, the  
sales and use tax will probably end this fiscal year above expectations for both the nonauto  
sales tax and the auto sales tax. For the month of April, GRF receipts of $938.1 million were  
$
sales tax. Monthly sales and use tax receipts were also $28.2 million (3.1%) above revenue in  
April 2018.  
21.3 million (2.3%) above anticipated revenue, buoyed by a strong performance from the auto  
For analysis and forecasting, revenue from the sales and use tax is separated into two  
parts: auto and nonauto. Auto sales and use tax collections generally arise from the sale of  
motor vehicles, but auto taxes arising from leases are paid at the lease signing and are mostly  
recorded under the nonauto tax instead of the auto tax.  
Nonauto Sales and Use Tax  
Nonauto sales and use tax GRF revenue of $778.7 million in April was above estimate by  
$
$
of $7.48 billion were $287.6 million (4.0%) above revenue in the corresponding period in6  
FY 2018. Chart 2, below, shows year-over-year growth in nonauto sales tax collections.  
Revenue growth for this tax has been solid, supported by employment and wage gains  
throughout FY 2019. In calendar year (CY) 2019, average sales and use tax growth was nearly  
4.1 million (0.5%). April revenue increased the YTD positive variance of this tax to  
132.5 million (1.8%), up from $128.4 million through March. Through April, total GRF receipts  
6
%, relative to the first four months in CY 2018.  
Chart 2: Nonauto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year (With Tax Base Adjustment,  
Three-month Moving Average)  
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19  
6
Beginning July 1, 2017, the sales tax on Medicaid health insuring corporations (MHICs) was  
eliminated. Thus, the last payment of $71.7 million deposited in the GRF was made in July 2017  
reflecting taxable activity in June 2017). So, to adjust for changes to the existing tax base, this chart  
(
excludes monthly revenue from MHICs in July 2017 so that changes in nonauto sales and use tax  
revenue are on a comparable basis.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 6  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Auto Sales and Use Tax  
April revenue from the auto sales and use tax of $159.4 million was $17.2 million  
(12.1%) above estimate, and $15.3 million (10.6%) above the amount received in the same  
month in 2018. With two months left in the fiscal year, YTD auto sales tax receipts of  
$
1.24 billion were $45.2 million (3.8%) above estimate and $62.9 million (5.3%) above receipts  
in the corresponding period in FY 2018. Chart 3, below, shows year-over-year growth in auto  
sales tax collections. Relative to FY 2018, revenue growth has been uneven throughout the  
fiscal year, but has remained positive. In CY 2019 through April, year-over-year growth for this  
tax source was 3.2%, reflecting a slowdown in unit sales. In the July to December period,  
growth was 4.6%. The rise in Ohio auto sales tax revenue relative to FY 2018 was solely due to  
price increases for both new and used vehicles. The price increases represent the combined  
effects of inflation and a shift in consumer tastes toward more expensive models, especially  
light trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs).  
Chart 3: Auto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19  
Nationwide new light vehicle (auto and light truck) sales fell from 17.5 million units in  
March 2019 (at a seasonally adjusted annual average rate) to 16.4 million units in April.  
Compared to sales in the corresponding period in CY 2018, unit sales have fallen about 2% in  
the January to April period in CY 2019, suggesting that unit sales may have peaked in this cycle,  
despite a good economic environment.  
Personal Income Tax  
The PIT provided outsized receipts in April and this performance increased the likelihood  
that this tax source will finish the fiscal year ahead of estimates. April GRF receipts of  
$
receipts in April 2018. PIT revenue is comprised of gross collections minus refunds and  
distributions to the LGF. Gross collections consist of employer withholdings, quarterly estimated  
1.33 billion were $377.4 million (39.6%) above estimate, and $387.8 million (41.2%) above  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 7  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
7
payments, trust payments, payments associated with annual returns, and other miscellaneous  
payments. The performance of the tax is typically driven by employer withholdings, which is the  
largest component of gross collections (about 82% of gross collections in FY 2018). Larger than  
expected refunds could also greatly affect the monthly performance of the tax.  
Gross collections in April were above projections by $406.2 million. That positive  
variance was partially offset by refunds and distributions to the LGF, which were respectively  
$
27.7 million and $1.2 million higher than anticipated. All components of gross collections were  
above projections, driven by taxes paid with annual returns which were $350.3 million above  
estimate. Trust payments, employer withholding, and quarterly estimated payments were  
above estimate by $24.9 million, $19.6 million, and $9.5 million, respectively.  
YTD, revenue from the PIT was $276.7 million (3.9%) above the revised projections, with  
April revenue reversing a cumulative GRF negative variance of $100.7 million through March.  
Revenues from each component of the PIT relative to revised estimates and to revenue  
received in FY 2018 are detailed in the table below. YTD gross collections were above estimate  
by $365.2 million: positive variances by annual return payments and withholding were partially  
offset by shortfalls from quarterly estimated payments and miscellaneous payments; and  
higher than projected refunds and distributions to the LGF reduced the positive variance for  
GRF revenue to the $276.7 million total. FY 2019 refunds and LGF distributions also increased  
compared to their amounts in the corresponding period last year, while gross collections grew  
from FY 2018 by $610.8 million.  
FY 2019 PIT Revenue Variance and Annual Change by Component  
YTD Variance from Revised  
Changes from FY 2018  
Estimate  
Amount  
$ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
Amount  
($ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
Category  
(
Withholding  
$101.8  
-$148.4  
$28.0  
1.3%  
-17.9%  
61.4%  
56.9%  
-9.2%  
4.0%  
$334.4  
-$143.4  
$27.3  
4.5%  
-17.4%  
58.9%  
59.1%  
-9.7%  
6.8%  
Quarterly Estimated Payments  
Trust Payments  
Annual Return Payments  
Miscellaneous Payments  
Gross Collections  
$391.1  
-$7.3  
$400.2  
-$7.8  
$365.2  
$86.1  
$610.8  
$98.3  
Less Refunds  
4.8%  
5.6%  
Less LGF Distribution  
GRF PIT Revenue  
$2.5  
0.8%  
$9.6  
3.0%  
$276.7  
3.9%  
$502.9  
7.3%  
7
Quarterly estimated payments are made by taxpayers who expect to be underwithheld by  
more than $500. Payments are due in April, June, and September of an individuals tax year and  
February of the following year. Most estimated payments are made by high-income taxpayers.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 8  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
8
Through April, FY 2019 employer withholding receipts grew 4.5%; however, growth in  
monthly employer withholding averaged only 2.5% in CY 2019, as a result of the January  
decrease in withholding rates. The chart below illustrates the growth of monthly employer  
withholdings on a three-month moving average relative to one year ago. It shows both the  
actual change in withholding receipts in FY 2019, and estimated payroll growth adjusted for the  
decrease in withholding tax rates in January.  
Chart 4: Monthly Witholding Receipts Trend  
Actual and Adjusted vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19  
Actual Adjusted  
Commercial Activity Tax  
YTD revenue from the CAT to the GRF totaled $1.27 billion, an amount $40.7 million  
(3.3%) above estimate, and $86.1 million (7.3%) above revenue through April in FY 2018. GRF  
revenue was $71.1 million in April, $10.5 million (17.3%) above estimate and $8.1 million  
12.8%) above such revenue in the same month last year. Though the last quarterly calendar  
(
taxpayer payment is due in May, and revenue from that payment will likely determine this taxs  
overall FY 2019 performance, the CAT is likely to finish the year in positive territory. Compared  
to FY 2018, gross collections have been robust in FY 2019. They grew about 6.3% through April,  
but refunds and credits were 4.3% below their levels through April in FY 2018, resulting in a  
higher growth rate for the GRF.  
Under continuing law, CAT receipts are deposited into the GRF (85%), the School District  
Tangible Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7047, 13%), and the Local Government Tangible  
Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7081, 2%). Through April, Fund 7047 and Fund 7081  
received $194.4 million and $29.9 million, respectively. The distributions are used to make  
reimbursement payments to school districts and other local taxing units, respectively, for the  
8
Withholding receipts consist of monthly employer withholding (about 99% of the total) and  
annual employer withholding. YTD through April, monthly employer withholding was 4.4% above such  
receipts in the corresponding period in FY 2018. On the other hand, annual employer withholding grew  
1
8.3%.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 9  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
phase out of property taxes on general business tangible personal property. Any receipts in  
excess of amounts needed for such payments are transferred back to the GRF.  
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Tax  
YTD revenue from the cigarette and other tobacco products (OTP) tax totaling  
699.8 million was above estimate by $0.6 million (0.1%) at the end of April. This total included  
636.6 million from the sale of cigarettes and $63.2 million from the sale of OTP. Though the  
$
$
tax is on target YTD relative to estimate through April, combined tax receipts in the last two  
months are estimated to total nearly a quarter of total receipts of the fiscal year. For the month  
of April, receipts from this source of $72.9 million were $2.4 million (3.2%) below estimate, and  
$
1.6 million (2.1%) below revenue in the same month in FY 2018.  
FY 2019 cigarette and other tobacco products receipts were $15.8 million (2.2%) below  
revenues in the corresponding period in FY 2018. FY 2019 receipts from cigarette sales fell  
$
20.9 million (3.2%) while those from the sale of OTP increased $5.1 million (8.8%). On a yearly  
basis, revenue from the cigarette and OTP tax usually trends downward generally at a slow  
pace due to a decline of cigarette revenue, though receipts from OTP tax generally increase.  
The OTP tax is an ad valorem tax, generally 17% of the wholesale price paid by wholesalers for  
the product; thus, revenue from that portion of the tax base (about 7% of the total tax base)  
grows with OTP price increases.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 10  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 3: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of April 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run May 2, 2019)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$620,766  
$184,164  
$3,840  
$629,680  
$183,842  
$6,611  
-$8,914  
$322  
-1.4%  
0.2%  
Other Education  
-$2,771 -41.9%  
Total Education  
$808,770  
$820,133  
-$11,363  
-1.4%  
Medicaid  
$981,598 $1,081,920 -$100,322  
-9.3%  
2.8%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
$147,505  
$143,487  
$4,018  
$1,129,104 $1,225,407  
-$96,304  
-7.9%  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$187,925  
$56,166  
$209,832  
$39,679  
-$21,907 -10.4%  
$16,487  
41.5%  
Total Government Operations  
$244,091  
$249,511  
-$5,420  
-2.2%  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$354,789  
$72,568  
$323,123  
$72,588  
$31,665  
-$20  
9.8%  
0.0%  
8.0%  
Total Other Expenditures  
$427,356  
$395,711  
$31,645  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$2,609,321 $2,690,763  
$140 $0  
$2,609,461 $2,690,763  
-$81,442  
$140  
-3.0%  
---  
Total GRF Uses  
-$81,302  
-3.0%  
*August 2018 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 11  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 4: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2019 as of April 30, 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run May 2, 2019)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2018** Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$6,951,472  
$1,914,180  
$64,343  
$6,923,373  
$1,926,863  
$64,486  
$28,099  
-$12,683  
-$143  
0.4% $6,846,107  
-0.7% $1,924,091  
1.5%  
-0.5%  
2.3%  
1.1%  
Other Education  
-0.2%  
$62,888  
Total Education  
$8,929,995 $8,914,723  
$15,272  
0.2% $8,833,087  
Medicaid  
$12,363,054 $13,092,729 -$729,676  
$1,147,197 $1,200,428 -$53,231  
$13,510,251 $14,293,158 -$782,907  
-5.6% $12,405,557  
-4.4% $1,128,633  
-5.5% $13,534,190  
-0.3%  
1.6%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
-0.2%  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$1,911,571  
$340,053  
$1,911,827  
$335,798  
-$255  
$4,254  
$3,999  
0.0% $1,842,991  
3.7%  
12.8%  
5.0%  
1.3%  
$301,391  
Total Government Operations  
$2,251,624 $2,247,625  
0.2% $2,144,382  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$1,446,709  
$1,349,087  
$1,382,014  
$1,351,312  
$64,695  
-$2,225  
$62,470  
4.7% $1,386,220  
-0.2% $1,280,689  
2.3% $2,666,909  
4.4%  
5.3%  
4.8%  
Total Other Expenditures  
$2,795,796 $2,733,326  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$27,487,666 $28,188,832 -$701,166  
$759,217 $751,933 $7,284  
$28,246,883 $28,940,765 -$693,882  
-2.5% $27,178,568  
1.1%  
1.0%  
$69,486 992.6%  
3.7%  
Total GRF Uses  
-2.4% $27,248,055  
*
*
August 2018 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2018.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 12  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5: Medicaid Expenditures by Department  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on May 3, 2019)  
Month of April 2019  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Year to Date through April 2019  
Department  
Medicaid  
GRF  
Actual  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
$926,663 $1,024,179  
$919,837 $1,013,189  
-$97,516  
-$93,352  
-9.5% $11,786,272 $12,514,093  
-9.2% $7,873,799 $8,427,922  
-9.4% $19,660,071 $20,942,016  
-$727,821  
-$554,124  
-5.8%  
-6.6%  
-6.1%  
Non-GRF  
$
1,846,500 $2,037,368 -$190,868  
-$1,281,945  
All Funds  
Developmental  
Disabilities  
GRF  
$48,385  
$51,466  
$199,547  
$251,014  
-$3,081  
$6,179  
$3,097  
-6.0%  
$502,238  
$504,621  
$1,890,524  
$2,395,144  
-$2,383  
-$63,694  
-$66,077  
-0.5%  
-3.4%  
-2.8%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$205,726  
3.1% $1,826,830  
1.2% $2,329,067  
$
254,111  
Job and Family Services  
GRF  
$5,935  
$14,726  
20,661  
$5,713  
$15,381  
$21,094  
$222  
-$655  
-$433  
3.9%  
-4.3%  
-2.1%  
$66,867  
$150,341  
$217,208  
$66,539  
$134,794  
$201,333  
$327  
$15,548  
$15,875  
0.5%  
11.5%  
7.9%  
Non-GRF  
$
All Funds  
Health, Mental Health and Addiction, Aging, Pharmacy Board, and Education  
GRF  
$615  
$2,921  
$3,536  
$563  
$2,631  
$3,194  
$53  
$289  
$342  
9.3%  
11.0%  
10.7%  
$7,677  
$28,018  
$35,695  
$7,476  
$30,279  
$37,755  
$201  
-$2,261  
-$2,060  
2.7%  
-7.5%  
-5.5%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
All Departments:  
GRF  
$981,598 $1,081,920 -$100,322  
-9.3% $12,363,054 $13,092,729  
-7.1% $9,878,987 $10,483,518  
-8.1% $22,242,041 $23,576,248  
-$729,676  
-$604,531  
-5.6%  
-5.8%  
-5.7%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$1,143,211 $1,230,749  
-$87,538  
$2,124,809 $2,312,669 -$187,861  
-$1,334,207  
*September 2018 estimates from the Department of Medicaid.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 13  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6: All Funds Medicaid Expenditures by Payment Category  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on May 3, 2019)  
Month of April 2019  
Year to Date through April 2019  
Payment Category  
Actual  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
Managed Care  
CFC†  
$1,306,734 $1,451,892 -$145,158 -10.0% $13,659,398 $14,459,076  
-$799,678  
-5.5%  
$445,739  
$339,039  
$229,990  
$74,034  
$217,932  
$0  
$508,302  
$393,549  
$253,324  
$85,437  
$211,281  
$0  
-$62,563 -12.3%  
-$54,510 -13.9%  
$4,824,882 $5,029,568  
$3,444,335 $3,845,217  
$2,318,381 $2,421,003  
-$204,687  
-4.1%  
Group VIII  
ABD†  
-$400,882 -10.4%  
-$23,334  
-9.2%  
-$102,622  
-$52,305  
$56,807  
-4.2%  
-6.4%  
2.8%  
ABD Kids  
-$11,402 -13.3%  
$758,841 $811,147  
$2,118,014 $2,061,207  
$194,944 $290,935  
My Care  
P4P & Insurer Fee†  
$6,651  
$0  
3.1%  
-$95,990 -33.0%  
Fee-For-Service  
ODM Services  
DDD Services  
Hospital - HCAP†  
Hospital - Other  
$651,426  
$400,835  
$249,880  
$0  
$668,963  
$422,939  
$246,024  
$0  
-$17,537  
-$22,103  
$3,855  
$0  
-2.6% $6,841,101 $7,292,037  
-$450,936  
-$355,018  
-$61,690  
-$680  
-6.2%  
-9.0%  
-2.7%  
-0.1%  
-8.6%  
-5.2%  
1.6%  
$3,596,039 $3,951,057  
$2,254,545 $2,316,236  
$634,610  
$355,906  
$635,291  
$389,453  
$711  
$0  
$711  
-$33,547  
Premium Assistance  
Medicare Buy-In  
Medicare Part D  
$90,200  
$52,077  
$38,123  
$101,591  
$59,896  
$41,694  
-$11,391 -11.2%  
-$7,819 -13.1%  
$888,770  
$510,873  
$377,897  
$965,427  
$570,307  
$395,120  
-$76,656  
-$59,433 -10.4%  
-$17,223  
-7.9%  
-$3,572  
-8.6%  
-4.4%  
Administration  
Total  
$76,449  
$90,224  
-$13,775 -15.3%  
$852,772  
$859,708  
-$6,936  
-0.8%  
-5.7%  
$2,124,809 $2,312,669 -$187,861  
-8.1% $22,242,041 $23,576,248 -$1,334,207  
*September 2018 estimates from the Department of Medicaid.  
P4P - Pay For Performance, Insurer Fee - Health Insurer Fee.  
CFC - Covered Families and Children; ABD - Aged, Blind, and Disabled; HCAP - Hospital Care Assurance Program;  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 14  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Expenditures9  
Melaney Carter, Assistant Director  
Ivy Chen, Principle Economist  
Overview  
Through April, FY 2019 GRF program expenditures totaled $27.49 billion. These  
expenditures were $701.2 million (2.5%) below the estimate released by OBM in August 2018.  
This negative variance in program expenditures grew by $81.4 million in the month of April.  
Medicaid spending continues to drive both the monthly and YTD negative variances in program  
expenditures. GRF Medicaid spending was $100.3 million below estimate for the month of  
April, bringing this categorys negative YTD variance to $729.7 million. Five other of the nine  
program categories had negative YTD variances, most significantly Health and Human Services,  
which was below its YTD estimate by $53.2 million, all of which occurred in months prior to  
April. Of the three categories with positive variances, Property Tax Reimbursements was the  
most significant, with a positive YTD variance of $64.7 million. As explained in prior issues of  
this report, this variance is due to a timing issue and should decrease in the next two months.  
The positive YTD variance in transfers out grew slightly in April to $7.3 million (1.0%).  
Total GRF uses, which includes both program expenditures and transfers out was below  
estimate by $81.3 million (3.0%) for the month of April and $693.9 million (2.4%) below  
estimate YTD. GRF uses for FY 2019 totaled $28.25 billion at the end of April.  
Medicaid  
As indicated above, GRF Medicaid expenditures were $100.3 million (9.3%) and  
$
729.7 million (5.6%), respectively, below their monthly and YTD estimates. Non-GRF Medicaid  
expenditures were also below their monthly and YTD estimates, by $87.5 million (7.1%) and  
604.5 million (5.8%), respectively. Including both the GRF and non-GRF, all funds Medicaid  
$
expenditures were $187.9 million (8.1%) below estimate in April and $1,334.2 million (5.7%)  
below the YTD estimate at the end of April. As a joint federal-state program, both GRF and  
non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state dollars.  
Table 5 shows GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures for the Ohio Department of  
Medicaid (ODM), the Ohio Department of Developmental Disabilities (ODODD), and six other  
sisteragencies that also take part in administering Ohio Medicaid. ODM and ODODD account  
for about 99% of the total Medicaid budget. Therefore, they also account for the vast majority  
of variances in Medicaid expenditures. The other six agencies Job and Family Services, Health,  
Aging, Mental Health and Addiction Services, State Board of Pharmacy, and Education –  
account for the remaining one percent of the total Medicaid budget. Unlike ODM and ODODD,  
the six sisteragencies incur only administrative spending.  
9
This report compares actual monthly and YTD expenditures from the GRF to OBMs estimates.  
If a program categorys actual expenditures were higher than estimate, that program category is  
deemed to have a positive variance. The program category is deemed to have a negative variance when  
its actual expenditures were lower than estimate.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 15  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6 shows all funds Medicaid expenditures by payment category. Overall  
expenditures were below their YTD estimates for all four major payment categories. Managed  
Care had the largest overall negative variance of $799.7 million (5.5%), followed by  
Fee-For-Service (FFS, $450.9 million, 6.2%), Premium Assistance ($76.7 million, 7.9%), and  
Administration ($6.9 million, 0.8%).  
Expenditures from all Managed Care categories were below their YTD estimates except  
for MyCare, which had a positive YTD variance of $56.8 million (2.8%). MyCare is a managed  
care program for Ohioans who are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare. Group VIII had the  
largest negative YTD variance within the Managed Care category at $400.9 million (10.4%),  
followed by CFC (Covered Families and Children) at $204.7 million (4.1%), ABD (Aged, Blind, and  
Disabled) at $102.6 million (4.2%), and P4P & Insurer Fee (Pay for Performance and Health  
Insurer Fee) at $96.0 million (33.0%). The negative variances for Group VIII and CFC were mainly  
due to lower than expected caseloads. For the first nine months of FY 2019, the average  
monthly managed care caseloads for Group VIII and CFC were 8.3% (52,900) and 2.1% (33,800),  
respectively, below estimates. Finally, $61.0 million of the $96.0 million negative YTD variance  
in the P4P & Insurer Fee category was due to lower than expected Health Insurer Fee  
payments. The Health Insurer Fee a source of funding for the marketplaces under the federal  
Affordable Care Act (ACA) is a tax by the federal government on certain entities that provide  
health insurance. The tax applies to Medicaid managed care companies and is incorporated into  
Ohios Medicaid managed care capitation rates.  
The negative YTD variance in FFS was primarily due to lower than expected FFS  
caseloads. Beginning January 1, 2018, newly eligible individuals are removed from FFS and  
enrolled onto managed care shortly after receiving Medicaid benefits. Previously, when ODM  
prepared the estimates, newly eligible individuals could remain in the FFS system for several  
weeks while they decided which managed care plan in which to enroll.  
Expenditures from Medicare Buy-In and Medicare Part D, the two premium assistance  
payment categories, have been below estimates all year long. The negative variances in both  
categories have grown somewhat each month. Medicare Buy-In helps certain Medicare eligible  
individuals who have limited income to pay Medicare premiums, deductibles, and coinsurance.  
Medicare Part D pays the federal government back (claw back) the prescription drug costs for  
individuals who are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 16  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Issue Updates  
ODJFS Releases TANF Spending Plan for FY 2020 and FY 2021  
Nicholas J. Blaine, Budget Analyst  
On April 3, 2019, the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) released its  
spending plan for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) Block Grant for FY 2020  
and FY 2021. The plan summarizes how ODJFS proposes to expend Ohios federal TANF Block  
grant allocation and meet maintenance of effort (MOE) spending requirements. TANF and MOE  
funds are first used to provide cash assistance payments to low-income individuals; ODJFS  
provides this support through the Ohio Works First program. After those payments, the funds  
may be used to provide short-term benefits and other services to eligible families, such as child  
care and food assistance. The table below summarizes these allocations, combining both  
federal TANF moneys and state MOE.  
TANF Block Grant Spending Plan, FY 2020-FY 2021 ($ in millions)*  
Program  
FY 2020  
$243.1  
FY 2021  
$243.1  
Ohio Works First  
Publicly Funded Child Care  
Local Programs and Administration  
Ohio Association of Food Banks  
Kinship Care Services  
$514.8  
$319.8  
$17.1  
$15.0  
$6.3  
$552.2  
$319.8  
$17.1  
$15.0  
$6.3  
Child Welfare  
Title XX Transfer  
$66.6  
$14.2  
$66.6  
$14.2  
Governors Office of Faith Based and  
Community Initiatives/Fatherhood Commission  
ODJFS Administration  
Non-ODJFS MOE Expenditures**  
Total  
$55.9  
$93.0  
$57.1  
$93.0  
$1,345.7  
$1,384.2  
*
Totals may not sum due to rounding.  
*Includes funds primarily expended through the Ohio Department of Education.  
*
Ohios TANF Block Grant allocation is $725.6 million annually; to draw down the full  
amount, the state must spend at least $416.9 million in MOE. Total anticipated spending for  
FY 2020 and FY 2021 exceeds $1.14 billion in TANF resources annually due to a combination of state  
spending in excess of the MOE and using carryover funds from previous fiscal year allocations.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 17  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The TANF Block Grant is expended through federal fund 3V60 appropriation item  
00689, TANF Block Grant. MOE payments are made from numerous appropriation items, most  
6
notably GRF appropriation items 600410, TANF State Maintenance of Effort; 600535, Early Care  
and Education; 600413, Child Care State/Maintenance of Effort; and 200408, Early Childhood  
Education (which is appropriated through the Ohio Department of Education).  
OhioMHAS Awards $1.0 Million for Youth Resiliency Grants  
Ryan Sherrock, Economist  
In March 2019, the Ohio Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services  
(OhioMHAS) awarded $1.0 million in Youth Resiliency grants to 19 projects in the following ten  
counties: Adams, Brown, Jackson, Lawrence, Marion, Meigs, Montgomery, Pike, Ross, and  
Scioto. These grants provide funding to help develop and build capacity for services and  
programming designed to ensure that at-risk youth enjoy healthy development, succeed in  
school, and grow up to be productive residents. Priority is given to projects that serve areas  
identified as having the highest need based on county resources and overdose death data.  
Project coordinators were required to work on their grant application in coordination with their  
local alcohol, drug addiction, and mental health services board.  
Youth Resiliency goals include: helping at-risk youth develop strong, positive  
relationships with adults; providing opportunities to develop leadership and decision-making  
skills; and giving youth challenges they can rise to. Overall, the scheduled programming will be  
broad based and tailored to the needs of the youth served and will include a combination of at  
least three of the following elements: tutoring/homework help; mentoring; support  
groups/peer support; access to spiritual counsel; prevention programs; life skills; recreational  
programs; exercise; vocational education; service learning and volunteerism opportunities;  
education and employment support for youths in recovery; suicide prevention; and parent  
outreach and education. These programming elements are designed to help develop a broad  
set of skills and behaviors in youth and enable them to make healthy choices even when faced  
with outside pressures, including peer pressure regarding the use of harmful substances.  
Attorney General Releases 2018 Concealed Handgun Report  
Jessica Murphy, Budget Analyst  
On March 1, 2019, the Ohio Attorney Generals Office issued its 2018 Concealed  
Handgun Law Annual Report, which shows that 168,302 concealed carry licens0es were issued  
1
statewide in 2018, including 69,375 new licenses and 98,927 renewal licenses. This total is an  
all-time high, exceeding by 6% the prior all-time high of 158,939 (117,952 new licenses and  
4
in April 2004, a total of 840,857 licenses have been issued.  
0,986 renewal licenses) issued in 2016. Since Ohios Concealed Handgun Law went into effect  
According to the report, Franklin (10,715) and Lake (8,582) counties issued the most  
licenses, each issuing over 6,000 more than the statewide average of 1,913. Together, these  
10  
https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Reports/Concealed-Carry-Annual-Reports-(PDF).  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 18  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
two counties accounted for 11.5%, or 19,297, of all licenses issued. The fewest licenses were  
issued by Coshocton (269), Noble (283), and Paulding (289) counties.  
The table below displays the five counties with the highest and lowest license issuance  
rates. Madison had the highest rate of issuance, 75.8 per 1,000 people; Vinton County had the  
second highest rate at 57.4. Cuyahoga County had the lowest rate at 1.8, followed by Hamilton  
County at 5.6. In general, urban counties with large populations had the lowest rates.  
Five Counties with the Highest and Lowest Rates of Concealed Carry Licenses Issued in 2018  
Highest Rates*  
Lowest Rates*  
Number  
Rate  
Number  
Population  
Rank**  
Population  
Rank**  
County  
Rate  
County  
Issued  
Issued  
Madison  
Vinton  
75.8  
57.4  
48.1  
46.9  
40.7  
3,340  
751  
53  
88  
29  
56  
75  
Cuyahoga  
Hamilton  
Lucas  
1.8  
5.6  
6.9  
7.4  
7.4  
2,217  
4,535  
2,990  
269  
2
3
Geauga  
Highland  
Hocking  
4,519  
2,014  
1,159  
6
Coshocton  
Summit  
67  
4
4,014  
*
*
Rate is measured by the number of concealed carry licenses issued per 1,000 people.  
*Based on U.S. Census Bureau 2017 population estimates.  
Controlling Board Approves Attorney General Contract to  
Develop Violent Offender Database  
Joseph Rogers, Senior Budget Analyst  
On March 23, 2019, the Controlling Board approved a request from the Attorney  
General for a $100,000 increase to an existing contract with Louisiana-based Watch Syndstems for  
the purpose of developing the Violent Offender Database (VOD). S.B. 231 of the 132 General  
Assembly, effective March 23, 2019, requires the Attorney General to create the VOD and  
generally requires a violent offender to enroll for ten years with the sheriff in the county in  
which the offender resides. The VOD will be available to law enforcement agencies through the  
Attorney Generals Ohio Law Enforcement Gateway (OHLEG), a secure electronic information  
network, and is expected to be fully functional by mid-May of this year. The subsequent annual  
cost for Watch Systems to maintain the VOD is $15,000. Based on the Department of  
Rehabilitation and Corrections time served data, the number of offenders who will be required  
to enroll in the VOD is approximately 300 each year; juvenile offenders are exempt from the  
enrollment requirements.  
Watch Systems currently contracts with the Attorney General to operate and maintain  
the states sex offender and arson registries, which actively track close to 20,000 offenders  
statewide. The annual cost of that contract is $544,000, which includes: (1) OffenderWatch, an  
Budget Footnotes  
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May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
offender management, notification, and geographical information system that houses offender  
records and all associated images and files, (2) web portals for up to 10,000 state and local law  
enforcement users, (3) a hosting facility for the data, hardware, and network services, and  
(4) user training, help desk support, and continuous software upgrades.  
Local Community Projects to Receive Over $4.7 Million in  
Federal Land and Water Conservation Fund Grants  
Tom Wert, Budget Analyst  
On March 28, 2019, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (DNR) announced that  
9 community projects among 14 counties will receive more than $4.7 million in federal grant  
1
funding to enhance parks, playground, and recreational areas under the Federal Land and  
Water Conservation Fund (LWCF) grant program overseen by the National Park Service, a  
branch of the U.S. Department of the Interior. The LWCF grant program provides up to 50%  
reimbursement assistance to state and local governments for the acquisition, development,  
and rehabilitation of recreational areas, including administrative costs. In Ohio, the program is  
managed by DNR, which reviews LWCF grant applications and submits recommended projects  
to the National Park Service for final approval. To be eligible, projects must be in accord with  
the Ohio Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan, which outlines the states  
outdoor recreation priorities and highlights recreational trends. Funding for approved projects  
is distributed under Land and Water Conservation Fund (Fund 3B60) appropriation item  
7
grants are summarized in the table below.  
25653, Federal Land and Water Conservation Grants. Projects selected for the 2019 LWCF  
2
019 Federal Land and Water Conservation Fund Grants  
County  
Allen  
Applicant  
Project  
Amount  
$123,000  
$381,113  
$227,978  
$89,808  
Faurot Park Bear Pit Playground  
Renovation  
Lima  
Lakewood  
Wagar Park Revitalization  
Parkview Recreation Complex Playground  
Improvements  
Cuyahoga Mayfield Village  
Fairview Park  
Bain Park Restroom Improvements  
South Park Splashpad, Parking, and  
Restroom Improvements  
Darke  
Greenville  
$273,769  
Jefferson Township  
Canal Winchester  
Wyoming  
Jefferson Community Park Paving  
McGill Park Development  
$133,413  
$500,000  
$456,549  
$500,000  
Franklin  
Kattelmann Property Improvements  
Hamilton  
Great Parks of Hamilton County Sharon Lake Recreational Improvements  
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Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
2
019 Federal Land and Water Conservation Fund Grants  
County  
Lorain  
Lucas  
Applicant  
Project  
Amount  
$316,000  
$283,490  
$250,000  
$500,000  
Avon  
Expansion of Veterans Memorial Park  
River East Trail and Bridge Connection  
A Park 4 All Abilities Project  
Metroparks Toledo  
Coldwater  
Mercer  
Celina  
Bryson Park District Development  
School Park Basketball Court  
Improvements  
Miami  
Ottawa  
Scioto  
Covington  
$64,759  
$165,000  
$155,712  
Put in Bay Township Park  
District  
Coopers Woods Preserve Expansion  
Portsmouth Skatepark Project at  
Weghorst Park  
Portsmouth  
Wally Byam Memorial Park Municipal Pool  
Improvements  
Shelby  
Summit  
Union  
Jackson Center  
Barberton  
$136,799  
$56,841  
McCafferty Park Improvements  
Union County Joint Recreation  
District  
Union County JRD Baseball Field Upgrades  
$150,000  
Total $4,764,231  
Department of Agriculture Announces Plans  
for Phosphorous Reduction Initiatives  
Shannon Pleiman, Budget Analyst  
On February 26, 2019, the Department of Agriculture announced plans to implement  
three phosphorous reduction initiatives for farmland in the Western Lake Erie Basin under the  
Soil and Water Phosphorus Program. These initiatives will be fundnded by $20.0 million in GRF  
appropriations devoted to these efforts under S.B. 299 of the 132 General Assembly. Of this  
amount, $8.0 million will support the Voluntary Nutrient Management Plan Development  
Program, $7.5 million will go to the Ohio Working Lands Program, and $4.5 million will support  
the Cost Share and Equipment Buy-Down Program.  
The Voluntary Nutrient Management Plan Development Program will reimburse  
agricultural producers who work with fertilizer retailers at the rate of $3 per acre per year for  
soil testing and development of an approved voluntary nutrient management plan. The goal is  
to reduce the cost of nutrient application and improve water quality through decreased  
nutrient runoff. The Ohio Working Lands Program will encourage producers to establish  
year-round vegetative cover on eligible crop land by offering producers $120 per acre per year  
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P a g e | 21  
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Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
for five years to establish and maintain perennial forage buffers. The Cost Share and Equipment  
Buy-Down Program will provide producers up to $50,000 to buy technology, equipment, and  
structures that reduce nutrient loss. Technological improvements include subsurface placement  
of nutrients with agricultural implements, manure storage structures and manure treatment  
equipment, and drainage water management structures.  
Arts Council Approves Individual Excellence Awards  
Shaina Morris, LSC Fellow  
On March 20, 2019, the Ohio Arts Council (OAC) Board members met to approve the  
Individual Excellence Award winners for FY 2019. The Board made 75 awards of $5,000 each,  
for a total of $375,000 awarded. Most of the awards were to individual artists, although there  
were three collaborations, so a total of 78 artists from 17 counties received funding.  
Individual Excellence Awards are given in recognition of outstanding accomplishments  
by artists in a variety of disciplines. Awards give artists resources to experiment in and explore  
their art forms, develop skills, and advance their careers. Awards are evaluated and scored by  
an open panel of nationally recognized artists and arts professionals. Panel meetings are open  
to the public and applicants are encouraged to attend. After all work has been reviewed,  
panelists make funding recommendations to the OAC Board. The OAC Board makes all final  
funding decisions.  
This funding cycle, an even-numbered calendar year, applications in crafts, design  
arts/illustration, interdisciplinary (collaborative and performance art), media arts, photography,  
visual arts 2D, and visual arts 3D were all accepted. For the next funding cycle, an  
odd-numbered calendar year, applications in a different set of art categories will be accepted.  
Awarded artists must remain in the state for the remainder of the grant year and funds may be  
used for a variety of expenses related to growth and development. Funds are not to be used for  
enrolling in or continuing a degree-granting program.  
State Library Board Awards Federal LSTA Grants  
Jason Glover, Budget Analyst  
In January, the State Library Board awarded $151,192 in federal Library Science and  
Technology Act (LSTA) grant funding to four recipients for a variety of projects that improve  
information technology systems, library services, or library collaboration. The awards ranged  
from $11,000 to $70,000. The recipients, project descriptions, and award amounts are  
described in the table below. The State Library Board uses LSTA funds, in part, to award grants  
periodically to libraries for various projects that are aligned to the Boards federally required  
LSTA Five-Year Plan. The Board awards competitive grants of up to $50,000 for projects that  
promote literacy, STEM, data management and analysis, and outreach and partnerships.  
Recipients of competitive grants over $5,000 generally must contribute a minimum local match  
of 25% of the total project cost. The Board also awards special grants for various initiatives on a  
case-by-case basis. In general, these grants have no set maximum grant amount or matching  
requirement. However, special grants for integrated library systems projects are limited to  
$
33,000 per year and require a minimum local match of 25%.  
Budget Footnotes  
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May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
LSTA Grant Recipients  
Award  
Amount  
Organization  
Grant Category  
Special  
Project Description  
Ohio Public Library  
Information Network (OPLIN)  
Upgrade the platform for the Website  
Kit service for up to 80 library websites  
$70,000  
$50,000  
Licking County Library  
System  
Purchase a 24-Hour LibrarySystem  
to deliver 24/7 library services  
Competitive  
Migrate Integrated Library System to  
Evergreen Open Source Library  
Software  
Integrated  
Library System  
Bucyrus Public Library  
Ohio Library Council  
$20,142  
$11,050  
Support a joint conference of library  
associations in Ohio in June 2019  
Special  
Total $151,192  
Budget Footnotes  
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May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
TRurhaaizacRidkzwiann, SegniortEchonoemistEconomy  
Eric Makela, Economist  
Overview  
The U.S. economy gained 263,000 workers in April while the unemployment rate  
decreased 0.2 percentage point to 3.6%. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP)  
rose at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the first quarter of 2019. Residential fixed investment and  
industrial production both fell during the quarter. Consumer prices, as measured by the  
consumer price index (CPI), were 1.9% higher in March than a year prior. The Federal Reserve  
Boards Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the target federal funds interest rate steady  
during their April 30-May 1 meeting.  
Ohios unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% in February to 4.4% in March.  
Employment in nonfarm occupations increased by 6,300 workers during the month. The  
manufacturing industry in Ohio shed 2,400 jobs in March. Real GDP increased at a seasonally  
adjusted rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The number of existing home sales in the  
state was 6.7% lower in March than it was a year prior; however, the average statewide sales  
price of homes is up.  
The National Economy  
Total nationwide nonfarm payroll employment rose 263,000 in April and the  
unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, lowest since 1969. Trends in U.S. employment and  
unemployment are shown in Chart 5.  
Chart 5: U.S. Employment and Unemployment  
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
52  
49  
46  
43  
40  
37  
34  
31  
28  
11.0%  
10.0%  
9.0%  
8.0%  
7.0%  
6.0%  
5.0%  
4.0%  
3.0%  
2
008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate (right scale)  
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Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
YTD payroll employment gains averaged 205,000 per month, down from 223,000 per  
month on average in all of 2018. The rate of increase in payroll employment this year through  
April is equivalent to a 1.6% annual rate, about matching the pace of employment growth since  
recovery began from the 2007-2009 recession. Employment rose in April in professional and  
business services, construction, health care, and social assistance. Changes in other industry  
sectors were relatively small. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% in the latest 12 months.  
The number of people counted as unemployed declined in April to 5.8 million. Of these,  
.2 million had been unemployed for more than six months, one of the lowest levels since  
007. Total employment as a share of the population among persons from 25 through 54 years  
1
2
of age, sometimes referred to as the prime working age group, has been in a 79.7% to 79.9%  
range in the past seven months, the highest since early 2008 and approaching the all-time peak  
of 81.9% in 2000.  
Real GDP rose at a 3.2% annual rate in this years first quarter, following 2.9% growth in  
all of 2018, strongest since 2015 and before that since 2006. First quarter growth was relatively  
healthy despite the partial federal government shutdown through late January. Consumer  
spending growth slowed to only a 1.2% annual rate, but strengthened late in the quarter.  
Residential fixed investment fell for the fifth straight quarter. Business fixed investment grew  
for the ninth straight quarter, and businesses added to inventories at the highest rate in nearly  
four years. Export growth rose in the quarter while imports contracted. Inflation as measured  
by the GDP price index slowed to only a 0.6% annual rate, lowest in three years.  
In contrast with real GDP, industrial production fell in this years first quarter, at a 0.3%  
annual rate. Manufacturing contracted at a 1.1% annual rate, with declines in several industry  
groups, notably in motor vehicles and parts, down at a 12.8% annual rate in the quarter  
following 5.5% growth during CY 2018. According to the Institute for Supply Management  
(
March. Deliveries, production, and employment all rose in April according to the ISM.  
ISM), activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April, although at a slower rate than in  
The CPI rose 0.4% in March to 1.9% higher than a year earlier. Gasoline prices rose 6.5%  
from February to March. The sub-index of the CPI that excludes prices for energy and food rose  
0
personal consumption expenditures, rose 0.2% in March to 1.5% higher than its year-earlier level.  
.1% in March to 2.0% higher than in March 2018. A related inflation measure, the price index for  
The Ohio Economy  
In March, Ohios unemployment rate edged down from 4.6% in February to 4.4%, the  
lowest level since August 2001. The states unemployment rate in March was higher than the  
U.S. unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate was 3.8% in March, unchanged from  
February, and 4.0% in March of last year. The number of unemployed workers in Ohio was  
2
58,000 in March, 7,000 fewer than in February, and 1,000 fewer than in March of last year.  
Ohios total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, increased by 6,300 or  
.1% in March from the revised total in February, following a decrease in February. In March,  
0
increases in jobs were widespread among industries. Jobs in the private service-producing  
industries increased by 5,900; most employment gains were in educational and health services  
(
financial activities (+1,000) while employment in trade, transportation, and utilities decreased  
by 1,600. The goods-producing industries gained 300 jobs, with employment gains in  
+2,600), leisure and hospitality (+2,100), professional and business services (+1,200), and  
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May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
construction (+2,500) and mining and logging (+200) outweighing losses in manufacturing  
(-2,400). State government employment increased, but employment in both federal and local  
levels of government showed decreases.  
Compared to March of last year, the states nonfarm payroll employment increased by  
9,800, or 0.7%. Employment gains since March of last year were mostly in educational and  
3
health services, leisure and hospitality, nondurable goods manufacturing, professional and  
business services, construction, transportation, warehousing, utilities, and financial activities  
and other services. Employment in local government and information dropped. Chart 6 shows  
Ohio employment and unemployment.  
Chart 6: Ohio Employment and Unemployment Rate  
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
.7  
.6  
.5  
.4  
.3  
.2  
.1  
.0  
.9  
12.0%  
11.0%  
10.0%  
9.0%  
8.0%  
7.0%  
6.0%  
5.0%  
4.0%  
2
008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate (right scale)  
Among the 12 metropolitan areas in Ohio, the Cincinnati metropolitan area had the  
strongest nonfarm payroll employment growth during the year ending in March at 1.8%, while  
the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman metropolitan area was the weakest with a 1.6% decline. In  
March, all 12 metropolitan areas had lower unemployment rates than March 2018. The  
Columbus metropolitan area had the lowest unemployment rate at 3.4%, down from 3.8% in  
March of last year. The Youngstown-Warren-Boardman metropolitan area had the highest  
unemployment rate in the state in March at 5.9%, compared to 6.0% in March of last year.  
Unlike the statewide nonfarm payroll employment and unemployment data above,  
metropolitan area data are not seasonally adjusted.  
Ohios real GDP increased 1.4% at a seasonally adjusted annual rat1e in the fourth quarter  
1
of 2018, lower than the real GDP growth for the 50 states of 2.2%. The industry groups  
contributing the most to Ohios growth were wholesale trade; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas  
extraction; and durable goods manufacturing. Ohios growth was ranked 35th among the  
11  
GDP by state for all 50 states differs from U.S. GDP in the national income and product  
accounts (NIPAs) because the GDP by state for the U.S. excludes federal military and civilian activity  
located overseas, which cannot be attributed to a particular state.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 26  
May 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
5
Ohios GDP reached $689 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter, accounting for about  
0 states and the District of Columbia. In current dollars (i.e., without adjusting for inflation),  
3
Pennsylvania, and Texas. For the year as a whole, Ohios real GDP grew 1.8% from 2017 to 2018.  
.3% of U.S. GDP. States with larger GDP than Ohio are California, Florida, Illinois, New York,  
The number of existing homes sold in Ohio decreased by 6.7% in March compared to  
March of last year, according to the Ohio Association of Realtors. In the first three months of  
this year, existing home unit sales decreased by 3.5% compared to the corresponding months in  
2
018. The statewide sales price of homes sold in January through March of this year averaged  
$
price of homes sold in January through March of 2018 was $165,554.  
176,948, or 6.9% higher than the corresponding months in 2018. The average statewide sales  
Economic activity in th2e region grew at a modest pace, according to the Federal Reserve  
1
Bank of Clevelands report. Hiring and wages increased at a moderate level, but some  
contacts noted difficulty in filling vacancies. The report also reported thatResidential and  
nonresidential construction and professional and business services firms saw the greatest  
demand growth. Other sectors saw muted demand change. Selling prices rose moderately  
despite a deceleration of materials cost increases.”  
12  
The report is derived from the latest Federal Reserve System Beige Book that summarizes  
information from outside contacts that was collected on or before April 8, 2019. The Federal Reserve  
Bank of Clevelands district includes all of Ohio and parts of Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.  
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May 2019