A monthly newsletter of the Legislative Budget Office of LSC  
Volume: Fiscal Year 2019  
Issue: June 2019  
Highlights  
Ross Miller, Chief Economist  
May GRF tax revenue exceeded the updated estimate published by the Office  
of Budget and Management (OBM) in February by $65.7 million, led by the sales  
and use tax ($47.0 million). Revenue from the personal income tax (PIT)  
comfortably exceeded estimate as well. For the first 11 months of FY 2019, GRF  
tax revenue was $616.9 million above estimate. GRF program expenditures were  
$
187.4 million below estimate in May, adding to a large budget cushion on the  
spending side of the states ledger.  
Ohios unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% in April, from 4.4% in March.  
Private sector payroll employment was unchanged in April.  
Through May 2019, GRF sources totaled $30.52 billion:  
Revenue from the sales and use tax was $224.7 million above estimate;  
PIT receipts were $298.4 million above estimate.  
Through May 2019, GRF uses totaled $31.07 billion:  
Program expenditures were $888.5 million below estimate, due primarily  
to GRF Medicaid expenditures, which were $793.5 million below estimate;  
Expenditures in the Health and Human Services category were  
$
$
The only program expenditure categories for which spending was above  
estimate were Primary and Secondary Education ($16.2 million) and  
General Government ($1.7 million).  
51.2 million below estimate, and Property Tax Reimbursements were  
45.8 million below estimate;  
In this issue..  
More details on GRF Revenues (p. 2), Expenditures (p. 12),  
the National Economy (p. 25), and the Ohio Economy (p. 27).  
Also Issue Updates on:  
2
018 Ohio Automated Rx Reporting System Report (p. 18)  
Trade Adjustment Assistance for Lordstown GM Complex (p. 19)  
Dementia Live Project (p. 19)  
OhioCorps Grants (p. 20)  
Ohio History Fund Grants (p. 20)  
Low-Income Housing Tax Credits and Funding (p. 21)  
Lakeside Daisy State Nature Preserve (p. 22)  
Court Technology Grants (p. 23)  
Available online at: www.lsc.ohio.gov/Budget Central  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 1: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of May 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on June 3, 2019)  
State Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
$145,808  
$798,685  
$944,493  
$136,500  
$761,000  
$897,500  
$9,308  
$37,685  
$46,993  
6.8%  
5.0%  
5.2%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$673,859  
$339,607  
$81,225  
$18,522  
-$23,543  
$14,948  
$30,481  
$33,802  
$31,430  
$6,827  
$3,963  
$0  
$652,100  
$340,800  
$79,100  
$24,900  
-$19,000  
$11,300  
$30,900  
$35,000  
$29,100  
$4,400  
$3,900  
$0  
$21,759  
-$1,193  
$2,125  
-$6,378 -25.6%  
-$4,543 -23.9%  
$3,648  
-$419  
-$1,198  
$2,330  
$2,427  
$63  
3.3%  
-0.3%  
2.7%  
32.3%  
-1.4%  
-3.4%  
8.0%  
55.2%  
1.6%  
---  
---  
---  
---  
$0  
$23  
$0  
$44  
$23  
$0  
$44  
$0  
$0  
$0  
Total Tax Revenue  
$2,155,681 $2,090,000  
$65,681  
3.1%  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$46  
$396  
$1,250  
$0  
$572  
$10,748  
$46  
---  
-$176 -30.8%  
-$9,498 -88.4%  
-$9,628 -85.1%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$1,692  
$11,320  
Transfers In  
$1,148  
$7,500  
-$6,352 -84.7%  
Total State Sources  
$2,158,521 $2,108,820  
$49,701  
2.4%  
-8.9%  
-1.4%  
Federal Grants  
$938,466 $1,030,552 -$92,086  
$3,096,987 $3,139,372 -$42,385  
Total GRF Sources  
*
the personal income, nonauto sales, and kilowatt-hour exercise taxes; the latter three  
were revised in February 2019.  
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of August 2018, except for  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 2  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 2: General Revenue Fund Sources  
Actual vs. Estimate ($ in thousands)  
FY 2019 as of May 31, 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on report run in OAKS Actuals Ledger on June 3, 2019)  
State Sources  
Tax Revenue  
Auto Sales  
Nonauto Sales and Use  
Total Sales and Use  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2018** Percent  
$1,383,911 $1,329,400  
$8,277,799 $8,107,600 $170,199  
$9,661,710 $9,437,000 $224,710  
$54,511  
4.1% $1,312,186  
2.1% $7,916,323  
2.4% $9,228,510  
5.5%  
4.6%  
4.7%  
Personal Income  
Commercial Activity Tax  
Cigarette  
Kilowatt-Hour Excise  
Foreign Insurance  
Domestic Insurance  
Financial Institution  
Public Utility  
Natural Gas Consumption  
Alcoholic Beverage  
Liquor Gallonage  
Petroleum Activity Tax  
Corporate Franchise  
Business and Property  
Estate  
$8,076,015 $7,777,600 $298,415  
3.8% $7,582,045  
2.5% $1,511,932  
6.5%  
6.5%  
-1.9%  
1.1%  
4.2%  
$1,610,943 $1,571,400  
$39,543  
$2,696  
-$5,067  
$17,195  
$3,178  
$1,070  
$18,131  
$9,402  
$1,089  
$1,073  
$3,800  
$1,574  
$0  
$780,996  
$323,733  
$304,195  
$15,278  
$178,870  
$138,231  
$75,902  
$50,989  
$45,773  
$8,400  
$778,300  
$328,800  
$287,000  
$12,100  
$177,800  
$120,100  
$66,500  
$49,900  
$44,700  
$4,600  
$0  
0.3%  
-1.5%  
6.0%  
26.3%  
0.6%  
15.1%  
14.1%  
2.2%  
2.4%  
82.6%  
---  
$796,298  
$320,057  
$291,972  
$24,449 -37.5%  
$183,846  
$119,132  
$69,549  
$50,203  
$43,825  
$5,442  
$2,016 -21.9%  
-$374 100.0%  
$146 -19.5%  
-2.7%  
16.0%  
9.1%  
1.6%  
4.4%  
54.4%  
$1,574  
$0  
$0  
---  
---  
$117  
$0  
$117  
Total Tax Revenue  
$21,272,724 $20,655,800 $616,924  
3.0% $20,229,048  
5.2%  
Nontax Revenue  
Earnings on Investments  
Licenses and Fees  
Other Revenue  
$82,665  
$63,582  
$84,737  
$230,983  
$60,006  
$57,380  
$87,840  
$205,227  
$22,659  
$6,201  
-$3,104  
37.8%  
10.8%  
-3.5%  
12.6%  
$46,871  
$58,465  
$263,547 -67.8%  
76.4%  
8.8%  
Total Nontax Revenue  
$25,756  
$368,884 -37.4%  
Transfers In  
$85,737  
$95,190  
-$9,453  
-9.9%  
$133,327 -35.7%  
Total State Sources  
$21,589,444 $20,956,217 $633,227  
$8,932,238 $9,589,323 -$657,084  
3.0% $20,731,258  
-6.9% $8,686,578  
-0.1% $29,417,836  
4.1%  
2.8%  
3.8%  
Federal Grants  
Total GRF SOURCES  
$30,521,683 $30,545,540  
-$23,857  
*
nonauto sales, and kilowatt-hour exercise taxes; the latter three were revised in February 2019.  
Estimates of the Office of Budget and Management as of August 2018, except for the personal income,  
**Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2018.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 3  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
1
Revenues  
Jean J. Botomogno, Principal Economist  
Overview  
With one month left in FY 2019, year-to-date (YTD) GRF sources totaling $30.52 billion  
were $23.9 million (0.1%) below revised OBM estimates, due to a negative variance of  
$
42.4 million (1.4%) in May. GRF sources had a cumulative positive variance of $18.5 million at  
the end of April 2019. However, the overall budget picture remained strong as total GRF uses  
were $885.0 million (2.8%) below projections, and the GRF is likely to exhibit a large positive  
end-balance at the end of the fiscal year.  
GRF sources consist of state-source receipts, which include tax revenue, nontax  
revenue, and transfers in, and federal grants. YTD through May, GRF tax revenues posted a  
positive variance of $616.9 million (3.0%), ensuring this revenue category will exceed  
anticipated fiscal year receipts. On the other hand, a large shortfall of $657.1 million (6.9%) for  
federal grants more than offset the positive variance of tax sources. Federal grants will finish  
2
the fiscal year below estimate. Regarding the remaining GRF sources categories, nontax  
revenue was $25.8 million (12.6%) above estimate, while transfers in were $9.5 million (9.9%)  
below projected revenues.  
As noted in the February issue of Budget Footnotes, the Tax Commissioner reduced Ohio  
employer withholding tax rates effective January 1, 2019; the reduced rates were estimated to  
decrease withholding revenue by $152.6 million for FY 2019, with the GRF bearing  
$
150.6 million of the revenue loss. OBM revised its monthly estimates of PIT revenue due to  
3
this change. Tables 1 and 2 show GRF sources for the month of May and for FY 2019 through  
May, respectively, with revised estimates of PIT revenue that reflect the new withholding rates.  
Note that OBM updated its GRF tax estimates again with the release of the Blue Book but  
without revising monthly estimates. Therefore, this reports variance analysis does not reflect  
the Blue Book estimates.  
Regarding specific GRF tax sources, the PIT led the way with a cumulative YTD positive  
variance of $298.4 million, attributable largely to a strong 2019 tax season. The largest tax source,  
the sales and use tax, was also above estimate, by $224.7 million. In addition, the commercial  
activity tax (CAT) and the cigarette and other tobacco products tax surpassed expectations by  
1
This report compares actual monthly and year-to-date GRF revenue sources to OBMs  
estimates. If actual receipts were higher than estimate, that GRF source is deemed to have a positive  
variance. Alternatively, a GRF source is deemed to have a negative variance if actual receipts were lower  
than estimate.  
2
Federal grants are primarily federal reimbursements for Medicaid. GRF Medicaid spending was  
$
739.5 million below estimates through May.  
3
The remaining $2.0 million would reduce distributions to the Local Government Fund (LGF) and  
the Public Library Fund (PLF). For accounting purposes, GRF tax revenue distributions to the LGF are  
debited against income tax receipts, while 50% of distributions to the PLF are debited against the  
nonauto sales tax and 50% are debited against the kilowatt-hour tax. FY 2019 estimates for sales and  
kilowatt-hour taxes were also adjusted slightly to account for the rate change.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 4  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
$
estimates, including the public utility excise tax ($18.1 million), the foreign insurance tax  
39.5 million and $2.7 million, respectively. Most of the remaining tax sources were above  
(
(
$17.2 million), the natural gas consumption tax ($9.4 million), and the petroleum activity tax  
$3.8 million). The corporate franchise tax produced $1.6 million in GRF revenue from prior-year  
adjustments to tax returns, though no receipts were expected. The kilowatt-hour tax experienced  
the only revenue shortfall with a negative variance of $5.1 million.  
May GRF sources totaled $3.10 billion, with GRF tax sources posting a positive variance  
of $65.7 million. On the other hand, federal grants, nontax revenue, and transfers in had  
shortfalls of $92.1 million, $9.6 million, and $6.4 million, respectively.  
Regarding tax sources, the sales and use tax, the PIT, and the cigarette tax had positive  
variances of $47.0 million, $21.8 million, and $2.1 million, respectively. In addition, the  
domestic insurance tax, the natural gas consumption tax, and the alcoholic beverage tax were  
above estimate by $3.6 million, $2.3 million, and $2.4 million, respectively. The relatively large  
timing-related boost for the alcoholic beverage tax brought the YTD variance of this tax source  
to positive territory, up from a negative balance of $1.3 million at the end of April. The positive  
variances were partially offset by shortfalls for the kilowatt-hour excise tax ($6.4 million), the  
foreign insurance tax ($4.5 million), and the CAT and public utility tax ($1.2 million each).  
Chart 1, below, shows cumulative variances of GRF sources through May.  
Chart 1: Cumulative Variances of GRF Sources in FY 2019  
(
Variances from August Estimates, $ in millions)  
$
$
$
$
800  
600  
400  
200  
$0  
-
-
-
-
$200  
$400  
$600  
$800  
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19  
Federal Grants Tax Revenue Total GRF Sources  
Compared to the corresponding period last fiscal year, YTD FY 2019 GRF sources increased  
$1.10 billion, with GRF tax sources accounting for $1.04 billion of the total growth. Receipts from  
federal grants increased $245.7 million. On the other hand, nontax revenue and transfers in  
4
decreased by $137.9 million and $47.6 million, respectively. Through May, receipts increased  
markedly for the largest GRF tax sources: the sales and use tax ($433.2 million, 4.7%), the PIT  
4
An outsize payment of unclaimed funds of over $200 million was made to the GRF in  
February 2018, which explains the large decline in receipts from nontax revenue this fiscal year.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 5  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
(
tobacco products tax, continuing its usual yearly downward trend, fell $15.3 million (1.9%).  
$494.0 million, 6.5%), and the CAT ($99.0 million, 6.5%). Revenue from the cigarette and other  
Sales and Use Tax  
Through May in FY 2019, receipts to the GRF from the sales and use tax totaled  
$
9.66 billion. This amount was $224.7 million (2.4%) above estimate, with both the nonauto  
and the auto portions of the tax ahead of projections. For the month of May, GRF receipts of  
944.5 million were $47.0 million (5.2%) above anticipated revenue, with strong performances  
$
from both portions of the sales tax. The latest revenue performance ensures this GRF tax  
source will finish the fiscal year ahead of expected revenue by a wide margin. Monthly sales  
and use tax receipts were also $82.7 million (9.6%) above revenue in May 2018.  
For analysis and forecasting, revenue from the sales and use tax is separated into two  
parts: auto and nonauto. Auto sales and use tax collections generally arise from the sale of  
motor vehicles, but auto taxes arising from leases are paid at the lease signing and are mostly  
recorded under the nonauto tax instead of the auto tax.  
Nonauto Sales and Use Tax  
Nonauto sales and use tax GRF revenue of $798.7 million in May was above estimate by  
37.7 million (5.0%) and $73.9 million (10.2%) above revenue in May 2018. The monthly yield  
$
increased the YTD positive variance of this tax to $170.2 million (2.1%), up from $132.5 million  
through April. Through May, total GRF receipts of $8.28 billion were $361.5 million (4.6%)  
above revenue in the corresponding period in FY 2018. Chart 2, below, shows year-over-year  
5
growth in nonauto sales tax collections. Revenue growth for this tax has been solid, supported  
by employment and wage gains throughout FY 2019. Nonauto sales and use tax growth has also  
been supported by increased sales tax remittances by out-of-state sellers. It appears Ohio is  
benefiting from voluntary collections by certain remote6sellers in the wake of the U.S. Supreme  
Court decision in South Dakota v. Wayfair in June 2018.  
5
Beginning July 1, 2017, the sales tax on Medicaid health insuring corporations (MHICs) was  
eliminated. Thus, the last payment of $71.7 million deposited in the GRF was made in July 2017  
(
excludes monthly revenue from MHICs in July 2017 so that changes in nonauto sales and use tax  
revenue are on a comparable basis.  
reflecting taxable activity in June 2017). So, to adjust for changes to the existing tax base, this chart  
6
Though the Court’s decision applied only to South Dakota, it reversed federal law that  
prevented states from requiring out-of-state sellers to collect sales taxes on purchases by residents of  
the state. Certain sellers have decided to impose and remit sales taxes even though they may not yet be  
required to do so by state law.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 6  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 2: Nonauto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year (With Tax Base Adjustment,  
Three-month Moving Average)  
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19  
Auto Sales and Use Tax  
May revenue from the auto sales and use tax of $145.8 million was $9.3 million (6.8%)  
above estimate, and $8.9 million (6.5%) above the amount received in the same month in 2018.  
YTD auto sales tax receipts of $1.38 billion were $54.5 million (4.1%) above estimate and  
$
71.7 million (5.5%) above receipts in the corresponding period in FY 2018. Chart 3, below,  
shows year-over-year growth in auto sales tax collections. Relative to FY 2018, revenue growth  
has been uneven throughout the fiscal year, but has remained positive. The rise in Ohio auto  
sales tax revenue relative to FY 2018 was mostly due to price increases for both new and used  
vehicles. The price increases represent the combined effects of inflation and a shift in consumer  
tastes toward more expensive models, especially light trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs).  
Chart 3: Auto Sales and Use Tax Receipts Trend  
Actual vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19  
Budget Footnotes P a g e | 7 June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Warmer temperatures brought customers back to car lots in recent weeks. Nationwide  
new light vehicle (auto and light truck) sales bounced back in May to 17.4 million units (at a  
seasonally adjusted annual average rate), up from 16.4 million in April 2019. Sales of autos and  
light trucks both gained in May. However, compared to sales in the corresponding period in  
calendar year (CY) 2018, unit sales have fallen about 1% in the January to May period in  
CY 2019, suggesting that unit sales may have peaked in this cycle, despite a good economic  
environment.  
Personal Income Tax  
May GRF receipts of $673.9 million were $21.8 million (3.3%) above estimate, but  
$8.9 million (1.3%) below receipts in May 2018. PIT revenue is comprised of gross collections minus  
refunds and distributions to the LGF. Gross collections consist of employer withholdings, quarterly  
7
estimated payments, trust payments, payments associated with annual returns, and other  
miscellaneous payments. The performance of the tax is typically driven by employer withholdings,  
which is the largest component of gross collections (about 82% of gross collections in FY 2018).  
Larger than expected refunds could also greatly affect the monthly performance of the tax.  
Gross collections in May were above projections by $41.8 million, driven by employer  
withholding which was $42.8 million above estimate. Gross collectionspositive variance was  
partially offset by refunds and distributions to the LGF, which were respectively, $13.1 million  
and $6.9 million higher than anticipated. Except for trust payments that fell short by  
$
annual return payments and miscellaneous payments which were above estimate by  
8.6 million, the remaining components of gross collections were above projections, including  
$
4.2 million and $3.4 million, respectively.  
YTD through May, GRF revenue from the PIT of $8.08 billion was $298.4 million (3.8%)  
above the revised projections, up from $276.7 million in April. Revenues from each component  
of the PIT relative to revised estimates and to revenue received in FY 2018 are detailed in the  
table below. YTD gross collections were above estimate by $406.9 million: positive variances by  
annual return payments and withholding were partially offset by shortfalls from quarterly  
estimated payments and miscellaneous payments; and higher than projected refunds and  
distributions to the LGF reduced the positive variance for GRF revenue to the $298.4 million  
total. FY 2019 refunds and LGF distributions also increased compared to their amounts in the  
corresponding period last year, while gross collections grew from FY 2018 by $622.8 million.  
7
Quarterly estimated payments are made by taxpayers who expect to be underwithheld by  
more than $500. Payments are due in April, June, and September of an individuals tax year and January  
of the following year. Most estimated payments are made by high-income taxpayers.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 8  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
FY 2019 PIT Revenue Variance and Annual Change by Component  
YTD Variance from Revised  
Changes from FY 2018  
Estimate  
Amount  
Percent  
(%)  
Amount  
($ in millions)  
Percent  
(%)  
Category  
(
$ in millions)  
$144.6  
-$148.3  
$19.4  
Withholding  
1.7%  
-17.7%  
30.0%  
54.7%  
-4.6%  
4.1%  
$382.2  
-$143.4  
$18.7  
4.7%  
-17.2%  
28.5%  
49.4%  
-5.1%  
6.4%  
Quarterly Estimated Payments  
Trust Payments  
Annual Return Payments  
Miscellaneous Payments  
Gross Collections  
$395.3  
-$4.0  
$369.7  
-$4.4  
$406.9  
$99.2  
$622.8  
$112.0  
$16.8  
Less Refunds  
5.3%  
6.0%  
Less LGF Distribution  
GRF PIT Revenue  
$9.3  
2.6%  
4.8%  
$298.4  
3.8%  
$494.0  
6.5%  
8
Through May, FY 2019 employer withholding receipts grew 4.7%; however, growth in  
monthly employer withholding averaged only 3.2% in CY 2019, as a result of the January  
decrease in withholding rates. The chart below illustrates the growth of monthly employer  
withholdings on a three-month moving average relative to one year ago. It shows both the  
actual change in withholding receipts in FY 2019 and estimated payroll growth adjusted for the  
decrease in withholding tax rates in January.  
8
Withholding receipts consist of monthly employer withholding (about 99% of the total) and  
annual employer withholding. YTD through May, monthly employer withholding was 4.5% above such  
receipts in the corresponding period in FY 2018. On the other hand, annual employer withholding grew  
2
2.1%.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 9  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 4: Monthly Witholding Receipts Trend  
Actual and Adjusted vs. Prior Year  
(
Three-month Moving Average)  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
.0%  
Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19  
Actual Adjusted  
Commercial Activity Tax  
The last FY 2019 CAT payment from quarterly taxpayers, due in May, provided  
339.6 million. This amount was $1.2 million (0.3%) below estimate, but $12.9 million (4.0%)  
$
above GRF CAT revenue in May 2018. The monthly performance reduced the YTD positive  
variance of this tax source to $39.5 million (2.5%), down from $40.7 million through April 2019.  
With one month left in FY 2019, the CAT is likely to finish the year in positive territory  
(
$
June estimated receipts are $10.4 million). YTD revenue from the CAT to the GRF totaling  
1.61 billion was $99.0 million (6.5%) above revenue through May in FY 2018. Compared to  
FY 2018, gross collections have been robust in FY 2019. They grew about 5.6% through May, but  
refunds and credits were 6.8% below their levels through May in FY 2018, resulting in a higher  
growth rate for the GRF.  
Under continuing law, CAT receipts are deposited into the GRF (85%), the School District  
Tangible Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7047, 13%), and the Local Government Tangible  
Property Tax Replacement Fund (Fund 7081, 2%). Through May, Fund 7047 and Fund 7081  
received $246.4 million and $37.9 million, respectively. The distributions are used to make  
reimbursement payments to school districts and other local taxing units, respectively, for the  
phase out of property taxes on general business tangible personal property. Any receipts in  
excess of amounts needed for such payments are transferred back to the GRF.  
Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Tax  
YTD revenue from the cigarette and other tobacco products (OTP) tax totaling  
781.0 million was above estimate by $2.7 million (0.3%) at the end of May. This total  
$
included $711.6 million from the sale of cigarettes and $69.4 million from the sale of OTP.  
Though the tax is on target YTD relative to estimate through May, June receipts are  
projected to be $138.7 million (15% of the total for the year) so June will determine  
whether this tax source finishes above estimate. For the month of May, receipts from this  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 10  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
source of $81.2 million were $2.1 million (2.7%) above estimate, and $0.5 million (0.6%)  
above revenue in the same month in FY 2018.  
FY 2019 cigarette and OTP receipts were $15.3 million (1.9%) below revenues in the  
corresponding period in FY 2018. FY 2019 receipts from cigarette sales fell $19.6 million (2.7%)  
while those from the sale of OTP increased $4.3 million (6.6%). On a yearly basis, revenue from  
the cigarette and OTP tax usually trends downward generally at a slow pace due to a decline of  
cigarette revenue, though receipts from OTP tax generally increase. The OTP tax is an ad  
valorem tax, generally 17% of the wholesale price paid by wholesalers for the product; thus,  
revenue from that portion of the tax base (about 7% of the total tax base) grows with OTP price  
increases.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 11  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 3: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
Month of May 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run June 4, 2019)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$566,429  
$198,243  
$2,947  
$578,293  
$197,319  
$3,434  
-$11,863  
$923  
-2.1%  
0.5%  
Other Education  
-$486 -14.2%  
Total Education  
$767,619  
$779,046  
-$11,427  
-1.5%  
Medicaid  
$1,483,115 $1,546,971  
$69,687 $67,678  
$1,552,802 $1,614,649  
-$63,856  
$2,009  
-4.1%  
3.0%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
-$61,848  
-3.8%  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$150,003  
$26,284  
$151,350  
$28,881  
-$1,348  
-$2,597  
-$3,945  
-0.9%  
-9.0%  
-2.2%  
Total Government Operations  
$176,287  
$180,232  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$303,916  
$20,227  
$414,388 -$110,472 -26.7%  
$19,892 $336 1.7%  
$434,280 -$110,136 -25.4%  
Total Other Expenditures  
$324,144  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$2,820,851 $3,008,206 -$187,355 -6.2%  
$5,000 $8,800 -$3,800 -43.2%  
$2,825,851 $3,017,006 -$191,155 -6.3%  
Total GRF Uses  
*August 2018 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 12  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 4: General Revenue Fund Uses  
Actual vs. Estimate  
FY 2019 as of May 31, 2019  
($ in thousands)  
(Actual based on OAKS reports run June 4, 2019)  
Program Category  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance Percent FY 2018** Percent  
Primary and Secondary Education  
Higher Education  
$7,517,902 $7,501,666  
$2,112,422 $2,124,183  
$16,236  
-$11,760  
-$630  
0.2% $7,399,118  
-0.6% $2,125,141  
1.6%  
-0.6%  
2.0%  
1.1%  
Other Education  
$67,290  
$67,920  
-0.9%  
$65,978  
Total Education  
$9,697,614 $9,693,769  
$3,846  
0.0% $9,590,237  
Medicaid  
$13,846,168 $14,639,700 -$793,532  
$1,216,884 $1,268,107 -$51,222  
$15,063,053 $15,907,807 -$844,754  
-5.4% $13,343,736  
-4.0% $1,197,992  
-5.3% $14,541,729  
3.8%  
1.6%  
3.6%  
Health and Human Services  
Total Health and Human Services  
Justice and Public Protection  
General Government  
$2,061,574 $2,063,177  
$366,337 $364,680  
-$1,603  
$1,657  
$54  
-0.1% $1,985,929  
3.8%  
12.2%  
5.0%  
0.5%  
$326,640  
Total Government Operations  
$2,427,911 $2,427,857  
0.0% $2,312,569  
Property Tax Reimbursements  
Debt Service  
$1,750,625 $1,796,402  
$1,369,314 $1,371,204  
$3,119,940 $3,167,606  
-$45,776  
-$1,890  
-2.5% $1,788,406  
-0.1% $1,343,895  
-1.5% $3,132,300  
-2.1%  
1.9%  
Total Other Expenditures  
-$47,666  
-0.4%  
Total Program Expenditures  
Transfers Out  
$30,308,518 $31,197,038 -$888,520  
$764,217 $760,733 $3,484  
$31,072,735 $31,957,772 -$885,037  
-2.8% $29,576,835  
2.5%  
0.5%  
$69,486 999.8%  
4.8%  
Total GRF Uses  
-2.8% $29,646,322  
*
*
August 2018 estimates of the Office of Budget and Management.  
*Cumulative totals through the same month in FY 2018.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 13  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5: Medicaid Expenditures by Department  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on June 4, 2019)  
Month of May 2019  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Year to Date through May 2019  
Department  
Medicaid  
GRF  
Actual  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
$1,430,735 $1,493,518  
$571,863 $647,168  
2,002,598 $2,140,686 -$138,088  
-$62,783  
-4.2% $13,217,007 $14,007,611  
-$790,604  
-$629,429  
-5.6%  
-6.9%  
-6.2%  
Non-GRF  
-$75,305 -11.6% $8,445,661 $9,075,091  
$
-6.5% $21,662,669 $23,082,702 -$1,420,033  
All Funds  
Developmental  
Disabilities  
GRF  
$39,537  
$47,482  
-$7,945 -16.7%  
$541,774  
$552,102  
-$10,328  
-1.9%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$174,259  
$336,116 -$161,856 -48.2% $2,001,089 $2,226,639  
$383,597 -$169,801 -44.3% $2,542,864 $2,778,742  
-$225,550 -10.1%  
$
213,796  
-$235,878  
-8.5%  
Job and Family Services  
GRF  
$12,339  
$20,122  
32,461  
$5,413  
$20,093  
$25,506  
$6,926 128.0%  
$79,206  
$170,463  
$249,669  
$71,952  
$154,886  
$226,839  
$7,254  
$15,576  
$22,830  
10.1%  
10.1%  
10.1%  
Non-GRF  
$29  
0.1%  
$
$6,955  
27.3%  
All Funds  
Health, Mental Health and Addiction, Aging, Pharmacy Board, and Education  
GRF  
$503  
$1,996  
$2,499  
$558  
$2,666  
$3,224  
-$55  
-9.8%  
$8,180  
$30,014  
$38,194  
$8,035  
$32,944  
$40,979  
$146  
-$2,931  
-$2,785  
1.8%  
-8.9%  
-6.8%  
Non-GRF  
-$670 -25.1%  
-$725 -22.5%  
All Funds  
All Departments:  
GRF  
$1,483,115 $1,546,971  
-$63,856  
-4.1% $13,846,168 $14,639,700  
-$793,532  
-$842,334  
-5.4%  
-7.3%  
-6.3%  
Non-GRF  
All Funds  
$768,240 $1,006,043 -$237,803 -23.6% $10,647,227 $11,489,561  
$2,251,354 $2,553,014 -$301,659 -11.8% $24,493,395 $26,129,261 -$1,635,866  
*September 2018 estimates from the Department of Medicaid.  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 14  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 6: All Funds Medicaid Expenditures by Payment Category  
Actual vs. Estimate  
($ in thousands)  
(Actuals based on OAKS report run on June 4, 2019)  
Month of May 2019  
Estimate* Variance Percent  
Year to Date through May 2019  
Payment Category  
Actual  
Actual  
Estimate*  
Variance  
Percent  
Managed Care  
CFC†  
$1,440,809 $1,528,172  
-$87,363  
-5.7% $15,100,206 $15,987,247  
-$887,041  
-5.5%  
$509,744  
$339,502  
$224,915  
$73,164  
$509,048  
$393,299  
$254,148  
$85,684  
$696  
0.1% $5,334,625  
$5,538,617  
$4,238,516  
$2,675,151  
$896,830  
-$203,991  
-3.7%  
Group VIII  
ABD†  
-$53,797 -13.7% $3,783,837  
-$29,233 -11.5% $2,543,296  
-$454,678 -10.7%  
-$131,855  
-$64,825  
$96,762  
-4.9%  
-7.2%  
4.3%  
ABD Kids  
-$12,519 -14.6% $832,006  
$39,954 18.9% $2,369,686  
-$32,463 -43.7% $236,757  
My Care  
P4P & Insurer Fee†  
$251,671  
$41,812  
$211,717  
$74,276  
$2,272,924  
$365,210  
-$128,454 -35.2%  
Fee-For-Service  
ODM Services  
DDD Services  
Hospital - HCAP†  
Hospital - Other  
$628,118  
$320,829  
$201,017  
$0  
$838,083 -$209,965 -25.1% $7,469,219 $8,130,120  
-$660,901  
-$393,555  
-$229,806  
-$680  
-8.1%  
-9.1%  
-8.6%  
-0.1%  
-7.4%  
$359,366  
-$38,537 -10.7% $3,916,868  
$4,310,423  
$2,685,369  
$635,291  
$499,038  
$369,133 -$168,116 -45.5% $2,455,562  
$0  
$109,584  
$0  
-$3,313 -3.0%  
--  
$634,610  
$462,178  
$106,272  
-$36,860  
Premium Assistance  
Medicare Buy-In  
Medicare Part D  
$91,742  
$51,493  
$40,248  
$99,318  
$60,044  
$39,275  
-$7,576  
-$8,550 -14.2%  
$974  
-7.6%  
$980,512 $1,064,745  
-$84,233  
-$67,984 -10.8%  
-$16,249  
-7.9%  
$562,367  
$418,146  
$630,350  
$434,395  
2.5%  
-3.7%  
Administration  
Total  
$90,686  
$87,441  
$3,245  
3.7%  
$943,458  
$947,149  
-$3,691  
-0.4%  
-6.3%  
$2,251,354 $2,553,014 -$301,659 -11.8% $24,493,395 $26,129,261 -$1,635,866  
*September 2018 estimates from the Department of Medicaid.  
P4P - Pay For Performance, Insurer Fee - Health Insurer Fee.  
CFC - Covered Families and Children; ABD - Aged, Blind, and Disabled; HCAP - Hospital Care Assurance Program;  
Detail may not sum to total due to rounding.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 15  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
EWexndpy Zheann, Dirdectoirtures9  
Ivy Chen, Principle Economist  
Overview  
Tables 3 and 4 detail GRF uses for the month of May and for FY 2019 through May,  
respectively. In May, GRF program expenditures were $187.4 million (6.2%) below the estimate  
released by OBM in August 2018. Property Tax Reimbursements had the largest negative  
monthly variance at $110.5 million (26.7%). As explained in prior issues of this report, property  
tax reimbursement payments are disbursed upon the request of county auditors. The timing of  
these requests may vary from that assumed in the OBM estimate. Payments were $64.7 million  
above the YTD estimate at the end of April. As a result of Mays negative variance, the  
categorys YTD variance turned into a negative $45.8 million (2.5%). However, total property tax  
reimbursement payments are expected to be in line with the estimate for the fiscal year.  
GRF Medicaid had the second largest negative variance at $63.9 million (4.1%) in the  
month of May. It also continued to dominate the negative YTD variance in GRF program  
expenditures, accounting for $793.5 million of the $888.5 million (2.8%) negative YTD variance  
in GRF program expenditures. Medicaid is funded by the GRF and several other non-GRF funds.  
The variances in both GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures will be discussed further in the  
section that follows this brief overview.  
Health and Human Services is another program category that had a significant negative  
YTD variance. Due partly to timing, YTD expenditures from this category were below estimate  
by $51.2 million (4.0%), all of which occurred in months prior to April. The categorys monthly  
expenditures were somewhat above estimates two months in a row, by $4.0 million in April and  
$
2.0 million in May.  
The positive YTD variance in transfers out narrowed to $3.5 million (0.5%) at the end of  
May. Including both program expenditures and transfers out, GRF uses totaled $31.07 billion  
through May, which was $885.0 million (2.8%) below the YTD estimate.  
Medicaid  
As indicated above, GRF Medicaid expenditures were $63.9 million (4.1%) and  
$
793.5 million (5.4%), respectively, below their monthly and YTD estimates. Non-GRF Medicaid  
expenditures were also below their monthly and YTD estimates, by $237.8 million (23.6%) and  
842.3 million (7.3%), respectively. Including both the GRF and non-GRF, all funds Medicaid  
$
expenditures were $301.7 million (11.8%) below estimate in May and $1,635.9 million (6.3%)  
below the YTD estimate at the end of May. As a joint federal-state program, both GRF and  
non-GRF Medicaid expenditures contain federal and state dollars.  
9
This report compares actual monthly and YTD expenditures from the GRF to OBMs estimates.  
If a program categorys actual expenditures were higher than estimate, that program category is  
deemed to have a positive variance. The program category is deemed to have a negative variance when  
its actual expenditures were lower than estimate.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 16  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Table 5 shows GRF and non-GRF Medicaid expenditures for the Ohio Department of  
Medicaid (ODM), the Ohio Department of Developmental Disabilities (ODODD), and six other  
sisteragencies that also take part in administering Ohio Medicaid. ODM and ODODD account  
for about 99% of the total Medicaid budget. Therefore, they also account for the vast majority  
of variances in Medicaid expenditures. The other six agencies Job and Family Services, Health,  
Aging, Mental Health and Addiction Services, State Board of Pharmacy, and Education –  
account for the remaining one percent of the total Medicaid budget. Unlike ODM and ODODD,  
the six sisteragencies incur only administrative spending.  
Table 6 shows all funds Medicaid expenditures by payment category. Overall expenditures  
were below their YTD estimates for all four major payment categories. Managed Care had the largest  
overall negative variance of $887.0 million (5.5%), followed by Fee-For-Service (FFS, $660.9 million,  
8.1%), Premium Assistance ($84.2 million, 7.9%), and Administration ($3.7 million, 0.4%).  
Expenditures from all Managed Care categories were below their YTD estimates except  
for MyCare, which had a positive YTD variance of $96.8 million (4.3%). MyCare is a managed  
care program for Ohioans who are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare. Group VIII had the  
largest negative YTD variance within the Managed Care category at $454.7 million (10.7%),  
followed by CFC (Covered Families and Children) at $204.0 million (3.7%), ABD (Aged, Blind, and  
Disabled) at $131.9 million (4.9%), and P4P & Insurer Fee (Pay for Performance and Health  
Insurer Fee) at $128.5 million (35.2%). The negative variances for Group VIII and CFC were  
mainly due to lower than expected caseloads. For the first 11 months of FY 2019, the average  
monthly managed care caseloads for Group VIII and CFC were 8.5% (54,000) and 2.1% (33,100),  
respectively, below estimates. Finally, $67.5 million of the $128.5 million negative YTD variance  
in the P4P & Insurer Fee category was due to lower than expected payments in the Pay for  
Performance Program. The remaining $61.0 million was due to lower than anticipated Health  
Insurer Fee payments. The Health Insurer Fee a source of funding for the marketplaces under  
the federal Affordable Care Act (ACA) is a tax by the federal government on certain entities  
that provide health insurance. The tax applies to Medicaid managed care companies and is  
incorporated into Ohios Medicaid managed care capitation rates.  
Expenditures from all FFS categories were below their YTD estimates. The ODM Services  
category accounted for $393.6 million (59.5%) of the total negative YTD variance in FFS. This  
variance was primarily due to lower than expected FFS caseloads. Beginning January 1, 2018,  
newly eligible individuals are removed from FFS and enrolled onto managed care shortly after  
receiving Medicaid benefits. Previously, when ODM prepared the estimates, newly eligible  
individuals could remain in the FFS system for several weeks while they decided which  
managed care plan in which to enroll. ODODDs FFS expenditures (DDD Servicesin Table 6)  
were below estimate by $168.1 million (45.5%) in May due to some timing-related issues. Due  
largely to its May negative variance, ODODD contributed $229.8 million (34.8%) to the FFS  
categorys total negative YTD variance. Hospital related payments accounted for the remainder  
($37.5 million, 5.7%) of the FFS categorys total negative YTD variance.  
Expenditures from Medicare Buy-In and Medicare Part D, the two premium assistance  
payment categories, have been below estimates all year long. The negative variances in both  
categories have grown somewhat most months. Medicare Buy-In helps certain Medicare  
eligible individuals who have limited income to pay Medicare premiums, deductibles, and  
coinsurance. Medicare Part D pays the federal government back (claw back) the prescription  
drug costs for individuals who are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 17  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Issue Updates  
State Board of Pharmacy Annual Report Shows Continued  
Decreases in Opioid Prescriptions  
Robert Meeker, Budget Analyst  
In March 2019, the State Board of Pharmacy released its Ohio Automated Rx Reporting  
System (OARRS) annual report for 2018, which shows that the number of opioid prescriptions,  
opioid doses dispensed, and the number of patients to whom opioids are prescribed and  
subsequently dispensed have all decreased year over year between 2012 and 2018.  
In 2018, 8.0 million opioid prescriptions were issued in Ohio: a decrease of 1.3 million  
(14.0%) from 2017 and a decrease of 4.6 million (36.5%) from 2012. There were 468 million  
solid (excluding liquids and powders) opioid doses dispensed to Ohio patients in 2018: a  
decrease of 100 million (17.6%) from 2017 and a decrease of 325 million (41.0%) from 2012.  
The number of patients to whom opioids were prescribed decreased to 1.9 million in 2018,  
down about 150,000 (7.5%) from 2017 and a de0crease of 1.2 million (39.4%) from 2012. The  
1
report also notes a decrease in doctor shoppers of 1,400 (85.4%) from 2012. The table below  
shows the numbers of opioid prescriptions, opioid doses dispensed, patients prescribed  
opioids, and doctor shoppers annually from 2012 to 2018.  
Opioid Prescriptions, Doses, Patients, and Doctor Shoppers by Year, 2012-2018  
Reporting Activity  
2012  
2013  
2014  
2015  
2016  
2017  
2018  
Opioid Prescriptions (in millions)  
12.6  
12.4  
12.2  
11.1  
10.1  
9.3  
8.0  
Opioid Solid Doses Dispensed  
7
93  
778  
751  
701  
636  
568  
468  
(
in millions)  
Patients Prescribed Opioids  
(in millions)  
3
.1  
2.7  
2.7  
2.6  
2.4  
2.0  
1.9  
Doctor Shoppers  
1,639  
1,172  
963  
720  
357  
273  
239  
The OARRS was established in 2006 and is maintained by the State Board of Pharmacy.  
OARRS collects information on controlled prescription drugs dispensed by pharmacies or  
furnished by prescribers to Ohio patients to help address prescription drug abuse, misuse, and  
diversion. Currently, there are 112,068 OARRS users: 96,021 prescribers or prescriber delegates  
(
85.7%), 15,220 pharmacists or pharmacist delegates (13.6%), and 827 law enforcement  
agencies (0.7%). The total number of patient queries in OARRS has increased annually from  
.78 million in 2011 to 142.5 million in 2018.  
1
10  
The Board defines doctor shoppers as individuals receiving a prescription for a controlled  
substance from five or more prescribers in one month.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 18  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
ODJFS Receives Increase in Trade Adjustment Assistance  
Support for Lordstown GM Complex Closure  
Nicholas J. Blaine, Budget Analyst  
On April 16, 2019, the Controlling Board approved a request from the Ohio Department  
of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) to increase the appropriation for the Trade Adjustment  
Assistance Program by $1.2 million, which will be used to provide services to workers impacted  
by the March 6 closure of General MotorsLordstown Assembly Complex. This funding is  
provided by the U.S. Department of Labor (USDOL), with no state match requirements, to assist  
workers affected by trade (increased imports from, or shifts in production to, foreign  
countries). In order to receive benefits, a group of three or more workers, their union, or other  
authorized representative must file a petition for Trade Adjustment Assistance. Once filed, the  
USDOL launches an investigation to determine if the group is eligible for assistance. The  
Lordstown Complexs petition was approved on March 8. As a result, affected workers can  
receive, for up to two years, a variety of benefits and reemployment services, such as training,  
trade readjustment allowances, job search allowances, relocation allowances, income support,  
a health coverage tax credit, and alternative trade adjustment assistance services. To receive  
these benefits and services, affected workers must apply through ODJFSs Office of Workforce  
Development.  
Dementia Live Project Launched in April  
Ryan Sherrock, Economist  
On April 1, 2019, a three-year Dementia Live project was launched in Ohio to improve  
the quality of life and care for nursing home residents diagnosed with dementia or a  
dementia-related condition. The project will serve about ten residents from each of the 140  
nursing homes that are selected to participate. The Age-u-cate Training Institute, which is  
headquartered in Texas, will administer the project. Residents chosen must be long-stay  
residents who have been diagnosed with dementia or a dementia-related condition and exhibit  
behavioral symptoms that are resistant to care. The project will provide on-site staff training  
consisting of the Dementia Live Experience, which is an experiential learning program that  
simulates cognitive and sensory impairments; thereby allowing staff to gain a better  
understanding of the struggles associated with living with dementia. Empowerment and skills  
development sessions for direct-care and support staff will also be provided, as well as other  
training sessions for family members and other nursing home staff.  
The federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) approved approximately  
760,000 in funding for the project. The funding comes from civil monetary penalties imposed  
$
on nursing facilities that do not meet federal health and safety standards. States may use these  
funds for projects that improve resident outcomes in Medicare and Medicaid certified nursing  
facilities. The Ohio Department of Medicaid recommended the project to CMS and will receive  
quarterly progress reports and a final report that evaluates project outcomes and results.  
Budget Footnotes  
P a g e | 19  
June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
DHE Announces Recipients of $2.5 Million in  
OhioCorps Pilot Program Grants  
Edward Millane, Senior Budget Analyst  
In mid-April, the Department of Higher Education (DHE) announced the award of about  
500,000 each to five state univenrdsities through the OhioCorps Pilot Program, which was  
$
established by S.B. 299 of the 132 General Assembly. These five universities are: Cleveland  
State, Kent State, Ohio University, Shawnee State, and Youngstown State. The awards will be  
used to fund programs that mentor and assist at-risk middle and high school students on a  
variety of topics, including preparing for college and career planning as well as opioid and drug  
education. Qualifying mentorship programs must provide a stipend to student mentors and  
develop plans for training mentors and partnering with local providers, such as AmeriCorps and  
the Ohio Commission on Service and Volunteerism. A brief description of each recipients  
program is provided below.  
Cleveland State University, in partnership with Cuyahoga Community College (CCC) and  
the Higher Education Compact of Greater Cleveland, will use its funds to assist students  
in the Cleveland Municipal School District by expanding existing mentoring programs  
and providing access to tutoring through the university and summer programs at CCC.  
Kent State University, in partnership with the nonprofit organization First Star and a  
consortium of community organizations, will use its funds to provide specialized college  
readiness, opioid and drug education, and mentoring programs to high school foster  
youth in northeast Ohio through the KSU First Star Academy.  
Ohio University will use its funds to establish the OHIO MENTOR (Mentoring, Engaging,  
Nurturing, and Teaching for Opioid Resistance) program to support a group of  
1
focused mentoring and service learning activities.  
40 ninth- and tenth-grade students in eight counties across southeast Ohio with  
Shawnee State University will use its funds to collaborate with several community  
partners in Scioto and Pike counties to provide certain student services, including  
weekly tutoring, monthly skill-building sessions on a variety of topics, transportation to  
and from those meetings, and monthly parent discussion groups.  
Youngstown State University will use its funds to create the Unlocking the Hidden Game  
program, which will provide a variety of services to at-risk youth ages 13 to 18 that are  
impacted by opioid abuse in Mahoning and Trumbull counties.  
OHC Awards Ohio History Grant Funds  
Shaina Morris, Legislative Fellow  
On February 27, 2019, Ohios Statehood Day, the Ohio History Connection (OHC)  
awarded a total of $90,000 to ten Ohio History Fund grant recipients. The 2019 recipients,  
project descriptions, and award amounts are described in the table below. Since its inception in  
2
012, the History Fund has made a total of $688,000 in grants to 73 organizations in nearly half  
of Ohios 88 counties. The History Fund Grant Program, which receives support through a  
voluntary state income tax check-off, provides competitive grants to local history organizations,  
nonprofits, and local governments for projects designed to support historic preservation and  
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June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
education. Depending on the type of projects seeking funding, the grants range from a  
minimum of $1,000 to a maximum of $20,000 and require a local match of between 20% and  
4
0%.  
2
019 Ohio History Fund Grant Recipients  
Project Description  
Award  
Amount  
County  
Organization  
Lorain  
Southern Lorain  
Historical Society  
Conservation of a large mural by Wellington native  
Archibald Willard  
$18,000  
$17,500  
$15,250  
$9,158  
$9,000  
$6,000  
$5,300  
Stark  
Canal Fulton Heritage  
Society  
Roof repair of the organizations Oberlin House  
Summit  
Lucas  
Friends of Crowell  
Hilaka  
Plan for the restoration of Kirbys Mill  
Libbey House  
Foundation  
Project to increase accessibility to the Libbey  
House with a ramp and half bath  
th  
Cuyahoga Cleveland Restoration  
Society  
A history of 20 century African American  
developers  
Delaware Delaware County  
Historical Society  
Replacement of wood shelving with new  
archive-quality metal shelves  
Trumbull Warren Library  
Association/Sutliff  
Museum  
Creation of an app for hand-held digital devices  
Cuyahoga Chagrin Falls Historical Project that will digitize and make the contents of  
$4,500  
$3,285  
$2,007  
$90,000  
Society  
the local newspaper available online  
Lucas  
Metroparks Toledo  
Update of exhibits and hands-on activities at the  
Isaac Ludwig Mill  
Lorain  
Oberlin Heritage  
Center  
Project that will help historic house museums in  
Ohio identify best practices for self-guided tours  
Total  
OHFA Awards $280.5 million in Federal Low-Income Housing  
Tax Credits for Developing Affordable Housing  
Shannon Pleiman, Budget Analyst  
On May 15, 2019, the Ohio Housing Finance Agency (OHFA) awarded a total of  
280.5 million over ten years ($28.5 million per year) in federal Low-Income Housing Tax  
$
Credits (LIHTC) to 34 developments in 24 cities to create nearly 2,200 apartments that will serve  
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Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
low- to moderate-income families, seniors, and individuals with disabilities. The purpose of the  
LIHTC program is to increase the supply of high quality and affordable rental housing by issuing  
tax credits to help developers offset the costs of rental housing developments. Once awarded  
the credits, developers must commit to keeping the housing units affordable for low- and  
moderate-income residents for a minimum of 30 years.  
In addition to the LIHTC awards, OHFA awarded the following additional funding to  
support these residential developments: (1) $44.5 million in short-term, low-interest housing  
development loans (HDL) to provide gap-financing on projects that have received LIHTC awards,  
(
2) $6.8 million in federal HOME funds, and (3) $1.5 million from the Ohio Housing Trust Fund  
(OHTF). The list of developments awarded tax credits and other funding is available on OHFAs  
website at: http://ohiohome.org/ppd/documents/2019-HTC-CompetitiveAwards.pdf.  
The HDL program, which is supported by unclaimed funds, provides loans, up to a  
maximum of $2.0 million, to LIHTC recipients that can be used for bridge equity for  
construction, permanent financing, or both. The federal HOME funds and the OHTF provide  
loans or grants that can be used by developers for gap financing, costs associated with new  
construction and rehabilitation, and developer fees. OHFA receives a portion of the OHTF that  
consists of revenue from county recordation fees. The majority of the OHTF is used by the  
Development Services Agency to provide grants and loans to local housing entities for projects  
mainly serving low- and moderate-income persons.  
DNR Acquires 118 Acres to Expand Lakeside Daisy  
State Nature Preserve  
Tom Wert, Budget Analyst  
On May 7, 2019, Governor DeWine and the Ohio Department of Natural Resources  
DNR) dedicated the purchase of 118 acres for the expansion of Lakeside Daisy State Nature  
Preserve in Marblehead (Ottawa County). The additional property expands the preserve from  
9 to 137 acres and is expected to help protect 700,000 Lakeside Daisy (Hymenoxys herbacea)  
(
1
plants (see photo below), a threatened species found only in Ohio, Illinois, and Ontario.  
Photo Credit: Hymenoxys herbacea, U.S. Fish and Wildlife. Service.  
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June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The purchase price of the additional property totaled slightly more than $1.6 million. Of  
this amount, $1.2 million was supported by federal grants through the Cooperative Endangered  
Species Conservation Fund. The fund provides up to 75% of the money for projects that protect  
endangered species on nonfederal land and requires a 25% state match. The states share for  
this purchase, nearly $414,000, was supported by the Natural Areas and Preserves Fund (Fund  
5
well as donations. To accommodate the use of federal funds in purchasing the property, the  
Controlling Board approved an increase in appropriations of nearly $1.1 million under Fund  
220), which receives revenue from the Natural Areas and Preserves income tax checkoff, as  
5
220 appropriation item 725656, Natural Areas and Preserves, on April 22, 2019.  
Supreme Court Awards $3.0 Million in Technology Grants  
Robert Meeker, Budget Analyst  
On April 17, 2019, the Supreme Court announced the award of 47 court technology  
grants totaling $3.0 million to 42 courts in 33 counties. Individual grants range from  
256,825 (Henry County Court of Common Pleas) to $329 (Cleveland Heights Municipal  
$
Court) with an average award of just under $63,000. As shown in the table below, the  
grants fall into two categories. The General Technology category funds projects to upgrade  
case management systems and all other nonsecurity-related hardware or equipment  
(
systems including physical building security, security cameras, and X-ray scanners (14 grants  
totaling just over $450,000).  
33 grants totaling $2.5 million). The second, smaller category funds security-related  
FY 2019 Supreme Court Technology Grant Awards by Category  
Category  
Award Count  
Award Total  
$2,501,727  
$451,308  
Average Award  
$75,810  
General Technology  
Security Technology  
33  
14  
47  
$32,236  
Total  
$2,953,035  
$62,831  
Grant applications were scored by a 16-member committee using a formula that  
assigned weights to 1project priorities and considered factors such as geographical impact and  
1
the poverty index. Project priorities for FY 2019 were: (1) upgrading an existing case  
management system to improve case flow, (2) upgrading, replacing, or purchasing other  
technology systems that affect case flow or fundamental court duties, (3) upgrading, replacing,  
or improving hardware or equipment that supports case management or other systems that  
affect case flow or fundamental court duties, and (4) purchasing any other hardware, software,  
or equipment (including projects related to physical security).  
11  
The committee consisted of judges, court administrators, clerks of courts, information  
technology professionals, security experts, and court personnel from across the state.  
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June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
The grants, part of the GRF-funded Ohio Courts Technology Initiative, are awarded to  
improve the exchange of information and warehousing of data by and between Ohio courts.  
Grants for this purpose were first awarded in 2015, and since then, about $14 million has been  
awarded to appellate, common pleas, municipal, and county courts funding more than 400  
projects.  
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June 2019  
Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Tracking the Economy  
Eric Makela, Economist  
Overview  
The U.S. economy continues its expansion, though growth in some key economic  
indicators has weakened in 2019. Employment growth slowed this year through May. The U.S.  
unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, a half-century low. Industrial production decreased in  
April, including a contraction of 0.5% in manufacturing, which is down 0.2% year over year.  
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.1% in the  
first quarter of 2019, buoyed by exports and inventory building. Growth of final sales to  
domestic purchasers slowed to a 1.5% annual rate.  
The unemployment rate in Ohio decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% in April. Job  
gains in April were about 1,400, as nonagricultural wage and salary employment reached  
approximately 5.6 million. Existing home sales in Ohio were 4.5% higher in April 2019 than one  
year ago, with the total value of those homes 10.4% greater than this time last year.  
In their most recent meeting ending May 1, the Federal Reserves Open Market  
Committee (FOMC) allowed the federal funds rate target to remain at its previous range,  
between 2.25% and 2.5%. A review by central bank staff noted continued strong labor market  
conditions. The staffs medium-term real GDP growth projection was revised slightly upward  
through 2020, with output growth slowing in 2021. As of late May, 12-month federal funds  
futures contracts were trading at their lowest rate s2o far in 2019, signaling investor sentiment  
1
that a rate cut is more likely in the upcoming year. The FOMC next meets June 18 and 19.  
The National Economy  
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. real GDP grew at an  
annualized rate of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, revised downward from BEAs initial  
estimate of 3.2%. The change reflects downward revisions to advance estimates of  
nonresidential fixed investment and private inventories. Exports and personal consumption  
expenditure estimates were revised upward.  
Chart 5 below contains the most up-to-date data on total nonfarm payroll  
employment and the unemployment rate. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate  
remained at 3.6% in May, down from 4.0% in January of this year and lowest since 1969. Total  
nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 workers in May; the previous months employment was  
revised downward by the same number. Both national indicators remain at historically strong  
levels.  
12  
https://research.stlouisfed.org/datatrends/usfd/page14.php.  
Budget Footnotes  
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Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
Chart 5: U.S. Employment and Unemployment  
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
52  
49  
46  
43  
40  
37  
34  
31  
28  
11.0%  
10.0%  
9.0%  
8.0%  
7.0%  
6.0%  
5.0%  
4.0%  
3.0%  
2
008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
Nonfarm Payroll Employment  
Unemployment Rate (right scale)  
The number of unemployed persons in the U.S. was around 5.9 million during the  
month. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for men was 3.7% in May, while the  
unemployment rate for women was 3.5%. The seasonally adjusted labor force participation  
1
3
rate was 62.8% in the U.S. during May, down from 63.2% in January, the result of both a rise  
in the estimated population 16 years of age and older and a fall in the number of labor market  
participants, mostly among the unemployed.  
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) establishment survey, employment in  
professional and business services rose by 33,000 in May, and the health care sector added  
1
service-providing industries during May; 8,000 people attained employment in private good-  
producing jobs, and government employment decreased by 15,000.  
6,000 jobs during the month. A total of 82,000 workers were added in private,  
Nationally, industrial production contracted in April by 0.5%, and has declined in three  
of the last four months. The contraction in April reflects decreases in manufacturing output of  
consumer goods (-1.2%), business equipment (-2.1%), and nonindustrial supplies (-0.6%).  
Nationally, production of materials, which include inputs to both the manufacturing and energy  
sectors, increased 0.2% in April and is up 3.2% year over year. Among major industrial groups,  
mining activity has grown by 10.4% between April 2018 and April 2019, while production from  
utility companies has dropped by 4.7% during that same time frame.  
According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), manufacturing activity  
expanded in May, although at a slower rate than in April. New orders, production, and  
employment among surveyed manufacturing companies continued to climb. Some of this  
13  
Equal to the number of workers plus the number of unemployed people, divided by the  
civilian noninstitutionalized population.  
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Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
production was attributable to companiesbacklogs of orders, which declined during the  
month. The importation of goods contracted during April and May.  
The consumer price index (CPI), as measured by the BLS, increased at a seasonally  
adjusted 0.3% in April, following an increase of 0.4% in the previous month. Year over year, the  
price index of all items has risen by 2.0%. The year-over-year price index has increased for food  
1
4
(
1.8%), energy (1.7%), new vehicles (1.2%), used vehicles (0.8%), and services (2.7%).  
According to the U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, the total number of  
housing units authorized for construction increased approximately 2.8% in CY 2018, and the  
estimated value of those projects was up around 3.9%. The number of housing units authorized  
YTD 2019 was down approximately 3.6% as of April, and the estimated value of those projects  
was down around 4.3%.  
The Ohio Economy  
Ohios unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point in April, to 4.3%. The  
number of unemployed people decreased 11,000 during the month; over the past 12 months,  
the number of unemployed people has decreased by approximately 15,000 and stood at  
2
47,000 in April.  
Nonfarm wage and salary employment increased by 1,400 workers during April, when  
the total number of employed persons in Ohio reached 5.597 million. Between April 2018 and  
April 2019, wage and salary employment grew by 44,400 workers, with approximately 81.5% of  
job growth occurring in the private service-producing sector. Year over year, nonagricultural  
employment grew 0.9% in the private sector and decreased by 0.1% in the public sector. Ohios  
historical employment levels and unemployment rates are displayed graphically in Chart 6.  
Chart 6: Ohio Employment and Unemployment Rates  
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
.7  
.6  
.5  
.4  
.3  
.2  
.1  
.0  
.9  
12.0%  
11.0%  
10.0%  
9.0%  
8.0%  
7.0%  
6.0%  
5.0%  
4.0%  
2
008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate (right scale)  
14  
Energy includes commodities such as gasoline and fuel oil, as well as energy services such as  
electricity and gas service.  
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Legislative Budget Office of the Legislative Service Commission  
During April, employment in goods-producing sectors declined modestly, as gains in  
construction (+500) were negated by losses in manufacturing (-500) and mining and logging  
(
-200). Nonfarm employment grew in educational and health services (+2,100) and financial  
activities (+2,000) over the month. Other industries including trade, transportation, and utilities  
-2,400) and other services (-1,200) shed workers in April. Government employment increased  
(
in April, with gains at the local (+700), federal (+400), and state (+300) levels.  
Ohios real GDP rose by 1.8% in 2018, following growth of 1.6% in 2017 and 0.7% in  
2
3
3
01nd6, according to the most recent estimates from the BEA. Ohios real GDP growth rate ranked  
in the U.S. in 2018. During the fourth quarter of 2018, Ohios GDP was estimated to be  
.3% of total production in the U.S. U.S. Census Bureau estimates put Ohios population at  
2
approximately 3.6% of the countrys population last year.  
According to the Ohio Association of Realtors, existing home unit sales in April were up  
.5% compared with April 2018. The average sale price for existing homes was 5.6% higher  
4
during the month, as compared to April 2018. YTD unit sales volume of existing homes is  
approximately equal to the year-earlier sales volume, although the total dollar value of existing  
homes sold in 2019 has increased 5.1% from 2018.  
Economic a5ctivity in the region grew modestly, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of  
1
Cleveland report. Growth of spending by consumers increased, except for motor vehicles.  
Employment rose, led by hiring in the service sector. Manufacturing slowed, attributed to  
weaker demand abroad. Growth in demand for professional and business services was strong,  
from both business clients and consumers.  
15  
The report is from the latest Federal Reserve System Beige Book that summarizes information  
gathered on or before May 24, 2019, from outside contacts. The Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelands  
district includes all of Ohio and parts of Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.  
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